Author: Luke Thomas

At UFC 143: Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz, more is on the line than a simple interim UFC welterweight title. Each fighter is at a different place in a different moment in their career. What’s at stake for each surpasses a simple win or loss on their respective records. Each fight in the UFC is chance to write the future. Let’s take a closer look at the match-ups to see the specific predicament tomorrow’s competitors find themselves in – and where they hope to go.

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz

It’s obvious what’s at stake here from a superficial level: an interim title and a chance to face reigning UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre (GSP). But that’s hardly the end of it. That’s particularly true in the case of Condit. For all the well-deserved praise and accolades of ‘The Natural Born Killer’, he’s yet to earn a true signature win in his MMA career. Diaz is, incontestably, the best and highest-ranked fighter he’s faced to date. A win over Diaz gives Condit the type of legitimacy that none of his previous victories could hope to offer.

For Diaz, a win over Condit would mark the second time in as many fights he’s bested a former champion of a Zuffa-owned organization. Should he defeat Condit and eventually GSP (a monumentally difficult task), that would make it three former champions from Zuffa organizations in three fights.

Diaz vs. GSP is also the fight fans prefer to see. It’s the fight that’s better for UFC’s bottom line and would likely rally more casual fan interest. Perhaps most importantly, a win over Condit and eventual bout with GSP would be the defining, culminating moment of Diaz’s undulating MMA journey. While not exactly nomadic, he’s historically bounced around organizations, never quite on the linear path a typical, blue chip contender takes. With a win over Penn, Diaz set his career in motion to finally achieve the ultimate prize. Losing to Condit derails that in the most profound and devastating way. In a division as thick as welterweight, title opportunities are fleeting. If Diaz wants to make good on the promise of his career, a loss to Condit at this moment is simply not an option.

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

This is one of those bouts where there’s as much to lose as there is to gain. Nelson enters this bout having lost two of his last three. He most recently bested Mirko Filipovic at UFC 137, but he’s thus far come up short in his Zuffa career to establish himself as a true heavyweight contender. In fact, each time he’s faced a top ten UFC heavyweight, he’s failed. He typically makes a strong account of himself even in losing efforts, but if he really wants to run with the front of the division, a win over Werdum is frankly a must. Werdum is currently ranked fifth is the MMA Nation/USA TODAY Consensus Rankings. A win over the Brazilian could finally position Nelson in the top 10 and back on track as a true heavyweight contender.

Werdum is similarly looking to stay relevant, but has much more to lose. Werdum jumped to the top of the heavyweight division by submitting Fedor Emelianenko in June of 2010. He’s only fought once since then, a loss to now number-one heavyweight contender Alistair Overeem. A loss to Roy Nelson (currently ranked #14) could very well bump Werdum out of the top 10. By contrast, a win over Nelson likely keeps Werdum where he’s at and sets up a potential showdown with former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir (he’s ranked only one spot above Werdum at #4). The winner of that eventual bout would have a legitimate claim to face the winner of Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem. If not them, then who?

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Perennial welterweight contender Josh Koscheck is in an unenviable position. Like Jon Fitch (before being billy clubbed by Johny Hendricks at UFC 141), Koscheck is talented enough to beat most top welterweight contenders, but a fairly clear step below GSP. And having lost to St. Pierre twice, few wish to see a third dance between the two. Koscheck is in divisional limbo. He’s got to beat Pierce to stay where he is, but where he is isn’t exactly going anywhere (for the moment, anyway). The true litmus test will be to see if Koscheck can stay motivated for a predicament so suffocating and an opponent that doesn’t truly move him from his Sisyphean position. That isn’t to say Pierce isn’t a challenge. He assuredly is. The question is whether Koscheck cares enough to continue marking time.

For Pierce, the bounty is easy to see. It’s not the toughest test of his career (that distinction belongs to Jon Fitch), but it is the most high profile. He’s on the main card of a pay-per-view and in the featured bout of the evening. He’s never before received this kind of UFC push, this kind of media attention or this kind of opportunity to create visibility for himself (Pierce is not even ranked in the top 25 of all welterweights). Koscheck represents a huge scalp. If Pierce can collect it, he can begin to do wonders for his career.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz is tied up with Urijah Faber for the immediate future, but it’s not as if he’s got a ton of contenders lined up should he get past The California Kid. Barao isn’t exactly a well-known commodity to the larger public, but what he lacks in popularity he more than makes up for in fighting acumen. Barao is undefeated in his four-fight Zuffa run, dating all the way back to June of 2010. Jorgensen is most certainly his toughest opponent (and is ranked higher), but Barao is riding a huge wave of fan interest and career momentum with the shellacking of Brad Pickett at UFC 138.

Jorgensen simply wants another crack at the champ. He lost handily to Cruz at WEC 53, but is on a two-fight win streak and most recently defeated Jeff Curran at UFC 137. This bout with the highly-regarded Barao – at a time when the division is short on contenders – is arguably about setting up a number-one contender to Cruz’s (or perhaps soon Faber’s) title. Jorgensen is 29, so even if he’s derailed here he probably has time to put together another title run. But each time a fighter is stopped short on a title shot path, it’s increasingly difficult to start all over again. Jorgensen has a serious opportunity in front of him and needs to strike while the iron is hot.

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks

Herman wants to prove he belongs and can still compete within the UFC middleweight division. A win over the talented if unheralded Starks proves he at least deserves to continue his last-chance ascension. Whether Herman can compete with the upper echelon of middleweights remains to be seen (and he had trouble doing so before his two-year hiatus), but a win over Starks at least affords the chance to try his hand at it one more time.

Starks, the wrestling standout from Arizona State University, faces a great moment to kick start his UFC career. Starks holds a win over Dustin Jacoby, one he earned at UFC 137. But Herman is more of a known commodity, a respected grappler and a good test for this juncture of Starks’ career. Starks beating Herman fits the model of how prospects become contenders and eventually, how contenders become stars. The unknowns beat the knowns and the knowns beat the greats. Who knows what lies ahead for Starks? I’m not suggesting any future is predetermined. But if he wants to set out on that established journey, a win over Herman is a perfectly good way to start.

From the preliminary card:

• Alex Caceres has the opportunity to build on his drop to bantamweight by besting Edwin Figueroa. After a rough start in the UFC featherweight division, Caceres looked improved at 135 pounds when he topped Cole Escovedo at UFC on Fox 1.
• Dustin Poirier has got to be on the short list of rising contenders in the UFC featherweight division. A win over Max Holloway won’t earn him a title shot against champion Jose Aldo, but it will likely get him the chance to face a marquee name.

UFC 143 coverage is officially kicking into high gear. There’s tons to check out including our UFC 143 open workout photo gallery, Ariel Helwani’s interviews from the same event, Ben Fowlkes’ interview with Roy Nelson, pre-fight presser video and the like. Now, start your day with these five can’t-miss links:

Open workouts interview with Nick Diaz. Ariel Helwani talks to Stockton’s own about the cameras of UFC Primetime, his dislike of editing, and a burgeoning rivalry with Georges St. Pierre.

UFC 143 preliminary card dissections. Dallas Winston visually breaks down Saturday night’s entire six-bout undercard, including the Facebook preliminaries and FX-televised UFC Prelims special.

The UFC 143 cut list. Ben Fowlkes probes to see which fighters are safe, and which fighters desperately need a ‘W’ on Saturday night.

Floyd Mayweather vs. Miguel Cotto slated for May 5. Boxing’s biggest draw hits the ring on the same night of UFC on Fox 3.

UFC 143 media scrum interviews. Bloody Elbow’s Matt Roth and the rest of the media talked to GSP and Nick Diaz. Check out his videos of these extended conversations.

Yesterday’s Media Gumbo:

Remember Josh Haynes? The TUF 3 finalist who almost had his scalp ripped off by Rory Singer? Apparently he’s a cop now. (HT: The Underground)

From one legend to another, Mike Tyson discusses the career of Fedor Emelianenko.

How many Ivy League-schooled Wall Street stockbrokers can count both ceramics and mixed martial arts among their hobbies?

Relive Carlos Condit’s ridiculous knockout of Dan Hardy at UFC 120.

Something to look out for on Saturday night.

The official UFC Undisputed 3 predictions have proven to be startlingly accurate so far, but will the trend continue?

Matt Mitrione braved the deep waters to power his way through this grueling workout. (HT: Middle Easy)

Did you miss any fight announcements? Here’s what was announced yesterday (Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2012):

• Legacy Fighting Championships 10: Gerald Harris (19-4) vs. D.J. Linderman (10-2)
• BAMMA 9: Andrew Punshon (10-4) vs. Matt Howard (9-0)
• BAMMA 9: Jason Ball (18-10) vs. Colin Fletcher (7-1)
• BAMMA 9: Nick Nembhard (1-2) vs. Leeroy Barnes (9-9)

FanPost of the Day:

Today’s FPOTD belongs to BE reader Luke Nelson: UFC On FOX: Has The UFC Botched Their First Two Tries?

DON’T FORGET to follow @MMAFighting on Twitter and ‘like’ us on Facebook by clicking the link below:

What is gameness?

Author Sam Sheridan once defined it as pursuit of the fight despite the physical consequences. The term actually has roots in dog fighting. It’s used to describe the eagerness of a dog to continue fighting through a grueling and injurious battle. The dog fighting atmospherics make the term somewhat unsavory to borrow for MMA purposes, but we’re treading in metaphors, not literalism. As UFC 143’s Carlos Condit himself states about his impending bout with Nick Diaz, “it’s going to be a dog fight‘.

There are a number of ways to parse the merits fight or evaluate its worthiness, but it’d be criminal to not note just how much gameness defines this bout’s character. Every fighter has biological limits, but Diaz and Condit are two fighters who are nearly peerless when it comes to competing up to the outer limit of those boundaries.

Numerous examples of their durability abound. Against Rory MacDonald, Condit was able to withstand a torrential downpour of ground and pound only to stop the rising prospect in the third round. Against Paul Daley, Diaz was floored on more than one occasion in a chaotic see-saw battle only to stop the Brit with strikes late in the first. Condit was floored with gargantuan punches early by Jake Ellenberger, but hung on and eventually took a decision. Diaz was getting drilled by hard punches from Takanori Gomi before driving the Japanese sensation back with strikes, ultimately submitting him with a spectacular gogo plata. The list of their gameness accolades is nearly endless.

That is precisely what makes gameness so pleasing: it’s never weathered nor reduced. With limited and qualified exception, the damage Condit and Diaz have absorbed in the course of their fights never dampened their willingness or ability to strike back. When the tides turned, they flooded.

Gameness, though, shouldn’t be crudely misinterpreted as solely the ability to take a shot. That’s part of it, of course. But what it truly underscores is both ferocity and the enthusiastic participation for the scrap. Gameness, in other words, has both defensive and offensive components.

What unites Condit and Diaz – and what has made them fan favorites – is their willingness to engage risk as a means of winning a fight. As long as you’re winning, being risk averse isn’t generally the worst approach to fighting. However, it isn’t particularly crowd pleasing and more importantly, it’s an approach that flies in the face of what we understand as athletic bravery. What makes Diaz and Condit fairly unique is they’ve used this approach of accepting risk to reach some of the sport’s loftiest positions. It’s one thing for amateurs to brazenly throw caution to the wind to rile up the crowd in some sort of Pyrrhic victory. It’s quite another for two of the sport’s most successful welterweights to have reached these heights using a similar albeit more measured approach.

It’s also historically accurate and demonstrably true wrestling has been used as a crutch for some fighters to coast through fatigue or rough patches during fights. The exhausted and less willed among the professional ranks have relied on it to hang on in precarious moments. Coincidentally or not, neither Diaz nor Condit is particularly proficient as a wrestler. Why is that important? No matter what direction the fight takes neither fighter will likely have the skills (and I suspect no inclination) to rely on wrestling as a means to slow down or stunt the action. This one won’t be decided by one fighter more expertly exercising control to avoid risk.

I don’t want to suggest gameness is the only reason this fight is special. There’s obviously more to the story. But the level of gameness both fighters exhibit is extraordinary because they also possess deep experience and technical acumen. Neither fighter is careless, but neither fighter lets caution lord over them. That’s unique. Over time as fighters gain experience and add skills, you’ll often see a trade off in ferocity. With Diaz and Condit, however, you just see the ferocity more expertly channeled.

My early hunch is Nick Diaz will be able to outlast Carlos Condit en route to a decision victory. If that happens, he’ll eventually face UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. But en route to that end, I’d bet my mortgage he’s going to catch a noteworthy beating at the hands of Condit.

I hope I’m not jinxing the bout, but given the records and deserved reputations of both fighters, it’s hard to see how either gets out of this one early. Or easily. They’re game for the scrap, from bell to bell, no matter the cost of doing business in between. At this level of the game – and in a five-round, interim title bout – that’s a reality that deserves a little extra recognition.