Author: MMA Betting

UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Stipe Miocic vs. Fabio Maldonado

Odds:  ( -550 Miocic / +375 Maldonado )

Betting Pick:  Miocic

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In the main event of the Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 Finale, Stipe Miocic will square off against Fabio Maldonado in a featured Heavyweight showdown. This is the kind of fight where you want to make sure to stay in your seat, because both of these guys have serious punching power and are willing to let their hands go. When two guys this big who can strike this well go at it, you don’t want to miss a second of the action.

Fabio Maldonado, who is currently riding an impressive three-fight win streak, is a very dangerous striker with decent wrestling and submissions. There is no question, though, that he relies primarily on striking to win his fights. If you look at his whole career, Maldonado is a prolific finisher, having won by T/KO in more than half of his professional wins. He hasn’t finished a fight since 2010, though, so maybe his power is on the wane. Nevertheless, he does have the ability to hurt opponents badly with clean shots and he has the technique to find the right openings, which makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone.

Stipe Miocic is one of the UFC’s most exciting Heavyweight prospects. After suffering his first career defeat at the hands of Stefan Struve, Miocic rebounded nicely with two wins against tough opponents. The big issue for Miocic in this fight is going to be landing his own punches without leaving himself open to absorb punishment. Struve already showed that Miocic’s chin can be exploited by a powerful striker, and Maldonado certainly fits that bill, so Miocic has to be careful not to fight reckless.

Ultimately, this is Miocic’s fight to lose. Neither guy is a dominant wrestler or submission grappler, so this one will likely play out mostly standing. I just think Miocic is a more powerful, more technical, more durable striker and should control the action en route to a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Stipe Miocic by Unanimous Decision.

To Add more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Middleweight Bout:  Mark Munoz vs. Gegard Mousasi

Odds:  ( +230 Munoz / -300 Mousasi )

Betting Pick:  Mousasi

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 41, heavy-handed wrestler Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz will square off against feared veteran Gegard “The Dreamcatcher” Mousasi in a featured Middleweight bout. This is a very interesting style matchup because, while both guys have very dangerous striking, Munoz is a dominant wrestler while Mousasi has the more advanced submission game. Anything could happen on the feet, and while Munoz is better-equipped to secure takedowns, Mousasi is much more likely to find a way to end this fight on the ground.

Gegard Mousasi has been one of the more exciting and versatile Middleweights in the world for years now. A long-time veteran of DREAM, M-1, and Strikeforce, Mousasi has faced legit opponents as high up as Heavyweight. That experience fighting larger, stronger fighters will come in handy against Munoz, who is a bruising, physical wrestler who relies heavily on overpowering his opponents for takedowns. On the feet, both of these guys have the power to end this fight, but Mousasi is the much quicker and more technical striker. He has to be careful about leaving himself open for takedowns, but he should be able to beat Munoz to the punch consistently when they are trading shots.

Mark Munoz has cemented himself as a legitimate threat at 185 pounds with a mix of heavy-handed power punching, dominant wrestling, and effective top control. He isn’t the most technically proficient striker in the UFC, but he throws every punch with mean intentions and his power punches are all potential fight-enders. He is very skilled at using his strength and wrestling to physically control opponents, neutralize their offense, and set up takedowns. On the ground he is not a huge threat to finish but he can definitely do some damage with ground and pound. The big question mark for Munoz here is how well he can defend submissions, because if he tries to wrestle extensively, Mousasi will test him.

Ultimately, I think this matchup favors Mousasi. Munoz thrives on overpowering his opponents and mixing his takedowns in with his striking to keep them off balance. I think that Mousasi’s striking, though, is so much better than his that Munoz is going to have to be a little more careful and try to avoid over-committing on his takedown attempts. On the ground, it’s a long way from a guarantee that Munoz can control Mousasi and avoid getting swept or caught in a submission. Ultimately, I think this should be a competitive fight, but I expect Mousasi to scrape by with a narrow decision win.

Prediction:  Gegard Mousasi by Decision.

To Add more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Dan Henderson vs. Daniel Cormier

Odds:  ( +475 Henderson / -750 Cormier )

Betting Pick:  Cormier in a Parlay Bet

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In one of UFC 173′s featured bouts, two of UFC’s top Light Heavyweights will go head to head as Dan “Hollywood” Henderson squares off against surging contender Daniel Cormier. This is a really interesting stylistic matchup, since both of these guys are world-class wrestlers who back up their grappling with big power punching. Henderson has been one of the top fighters in the world for a remarkable amount of time, while Cormier is less experienced but much younger. This is an even matchup between two of the best 205 pounders in the UFC, and should make for a competitive and entertaining fight.

Dan Henderson, a former two-division PRIDE FC champion, has had one of the longest and most storied careers in the history of MMA. Henderson has fought the best fighters in the world for more than a decade and is still going strong at 43. Henderson’s style is based on using the clinch to bully his opponents and set up takedowns while constantly threatening with his huge power punches. Henderson is one of the scariest one-punch knockout artists in the UFC, so Cormier is going to need to be careful.

Daniel Cormier, an undefeated prospect who amassed a perfect career record at Heavyweight before dropping down to a more natural weight, is stylistically similar to Henderson in a lot of ways. His bread and butter is his wrestling, but his striking is extremely formidable, which makes it much easier for him to set up his takedowns. He probably has slightly less single-punch power than Henderson, but he is a better pure wrestler and can certainly do some damage on his feet.

This is a close match, but I give the edge to Cormier. He is essentially a younger, fresher version of Henderson. He is perfectly suited to neutralize Henderson’s strengths and beat him at his own game. He’s also spent his entire career fighting at a significant size disadvantage, and I think the drop to 205 is going to make him extremely formidable. Henderson is tough and should hang in there, but Cormier takes the unanimous decision win to protect his undefeated record.

Prediction:  Daniel Cormier by Unanimous Decision.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…

UFC Bantamweight Title Bout:  Renen Barao vs. TJ Dillashaw

Odds: ( -800 Barao / +500 Dillashaw )

Betting Pick: Barao on a Parlay

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In the main event of UFC 173, reigning UFC Bantamweight champion Renan Barao will look to continue his unstoppable 32-fight unbeaten streak as he defends his title against up-and-coming contender T.J. Dillashaw. Barao is not UFC’s most popular champion, but he is quite possibly the most dominant. Dillashaw is a talented, versatile young fighter, but there is very little question that it is going to take a career performance for him to capture Barao’s title.

T.J. Dillashaw has put together an impressive 5-2 record since making his UFC debut. He’s a talented fighter with solid striking and good submissions, but he isn’t particularly dominant in any one area. One troubling thing is that the two best fighters Dillashaw has ever faced, John Dodson and Raphael Assuncao, represent Dillashaw’s two UFC losses. Clearly Barao is a much more dangerous and complete fighter than either of those guys, so this is a pretty massive step up in competition for Dillashaw.

Renan Barao is not the UFC’s flashiest or most marketable champion, but he is an absolute machine inside the Octagon who hasn’t lost a fight since dropping his professional debut in 2005. Barao has solid wrestling and can punish opponents with striking and submissions. Barao has not shown many weaknesses in his game, and has consistently been fighting superior opposition, so as long as he doesn’t do anything reckless or suffer a freak injury, he is a heavy favorite here.

Put simply, Dillashaw is cannon fodder here. Barao has already dominated most of the other top contenders, and Dillashaw has been thrust into the space that creates. Dillashaw is a good fighter who has had a good career and will continue to be a factor in the UFC, but he is not on Barao’s level in any way. Barao by submission.

Prediction:  Renan Barao by third round Rear Naked Choke.

To Add a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bovada here…