Author: MMA Betting

UFC Welterweight Title Bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler

Odds: ( -350 Hendricks / +265 Lawler )

Betting Pick: Hendricks

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In the main event of UFC 171, Johny Hendricks will square off against “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler to determine who the new UFC Welterweight king is following the departure of long-time champion Georges St. Pierre. Hendricks pushed GSP right to the limit in his last fight, despite coming up short on the official scorecards. Lawler, for his part, has put together three straight wins since his long-awaited return to the Octagon, and with his striking prowess, he is a threat to finish anyone he faces at any time. In addition to being a big-time matchup with a lot on the line, this has all the makings of an exciting style clash as well.

Robbie Lawler, a long-time veteran of UFC, EliteXC, and Strikeforce, is one of the most feared and accomplished strikers in the Welterweight division. With years of top-level experience, Lawler knows the ins and outs of a professional fight and is great at finding openings for his power punches and exploiting them. There aren’t a lot of questions about his gameplan at this point, since he always looks to strike and land big haymakers. Despite his penchant for huge knockout punches, though, Lawler is a long way from a brawler. He has great hand speed, pinpoint accuracy, and excellent footwork. Against Hendricks, who is a formidable striker in his own right, he needs to try not to press the issue too hard and, most of all, not get taken down, where he will get mangled off his back.

Johny Hendricks made it clear in his last fight that, regardless of whether Georges St. Pierre does or does not return to the UFC, he is the guy to beat in the UFC Welterweight division. A top-level collegiate wrestler, Hendricks brought all of his grappling prowess to the Octagon with him along with a surplus of knockout power and great hands. Hendricks has easily the best overall striking game of any fighter with his level of wrestling ability. He can beat guys with one huge knockout punch or by taking them down and mauling them from top position. Against Lawler, he just has to be wary of Lawler’s power and not get overconfident, because Lawler has more than enough in the tank to make him pay for any carelessness.

Ultimately, I think the edge goes to Hendricks. Both guys can bang, both guys have good technical boxing, but Hendricks has better cardio and a much more complete offensive repertoire. If things go poorly for him in the standup, he can rely heavily on takedowns and the clinch to reverse his fortunes. If Lawler starts losing on the feet, he is pretty much out of options. I expect a knockout here with two guys who can hit so hard and are willing to stand toe to toe. I expect a war of attrition, with Hendricks coming out on top in the later rounds as Lawler starts to fade. That said, anything can happen in a fight, and at +300 or better, a guy with Lawler’s one-punch knockout power is a fairly attractive underdog for wagering purposes.

Prediction: Johny Hendricks by Decision.

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