Author: MMA Betting

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa

Odds:  ( -500 Gustafsson / +350 Manuwa )

Betting Pick:  Gustafsson

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 38, top-ranked Light Heavyweight contender Alexander Gustafsson will look to rebound from a title bout loss as he squares off with undefeated prospect Jimi Manuwa. Gustafsson gave UFC champion Jon “Bones” Jones everything he could handle in their last fight. Generally, a big contender coming off a tough title loss might get a slightly easier bout, but Gustafsson is getting thrown in with an undefeated fighter who has blazed his way through the division with brutal striking and a vast surplus of punching power. If he wants to stay in position for a title rematch, Gustafsson is going to have to find a way to stay out of trouble on the feet and not leave himself open for any huge power punches.

Jimi Manuwa is one of the Light Heavyweight division’s most exciting prospects. With 14 finishes in 14 professional fights, Manuwa has proven that he is a dangerous fighter who should make any opponent wary. There is no way around the fact, though, that Gustafsson is not so much a step up in competition for Manuwa as he is a giant leap. Gustafsson is more than just one tier above any of the fighters Manuwa has faced, he is in a whole different realm. Still, if Manuwa can avoid being overwhelmed by the moment, his striking prowess and punching power make him a threat to win any fight at any time.

Alexander Gustafsson is clearly a top-tier Light Heavyweight. His mix of size, striking ability, and wrestling make him a formidable foe for any opponent, including UFC champ Jon Jones, who previously looked untouchable. Gustafsson is a bit of an enigma, in that when you look at his style, no one thing really stands out. He’s not a world-class wrestler, nor is he one of the most feared strikers in his division. What he is, like Jon Jones, is the prototype of a new breed of MMA fighter with a mix of striking, grappling, size, and athleticism. I don’t think that there’s anyone in the world Gustafsson should be afraid to stand with, but he does need to be careful against Manuwa. Gustafsson has the far more complete game and much more high-level fight experience, so he just needs to be careful not to hand anything to Manuwa in the striking exchanges.

Ultimately, this seems like a bit of a mismatch. Clearly, Manuwa has promise, but Gustafsson is just too big a step up for him at this point. Manuwa is a striker by trade, but Gustafsson is a skilled striker in his own right, and his length and height make him a difficult style matchup. On top of that, Gustafsson is a better wrestler with a superior clinch game. I just think this is too much too soon for Manuwa. Expect Gustafsson to control the action en route to a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight Bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs. John Hathaway

Odds:  (-365 Kim / +275 Hathaway )

Betting Pick:  Stun Gun

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 37, two of the UFC’s most promising Welterweight contenders will square off as Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim faces John “The Hitman” Hathaway. With the recent retirement of former champions Georges St. Pierre, the UFC’s Welterweight division is wide open, and a win here for either guy would go a long way toward cementing them as important players in the cloudy title picture.

Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim is one of the UFC’s most versatile and effective Welterweights. He has solid punching and good technical boxing, effective wrestling, and a very dangerous clinch game with solid clinch striking and very good hip throws. Kim’s only two professional losses came to Demian Maia and Carlos Condit, both top Welterweights, and he has only been legitimately stopped once as a professional. Kim isn’t one of the best in the world at any one thing, but he puts his offense together very well and is extremely effective at transitioning from standing to the ground game. Hathaway is a very solid grappler, but lacks some of Kim’s finesse on the feet, so if Kim can use his grappling defensively and use clinches to set up striking and neutralize Hathaway, he will be in a great position to win this one.

John “The Hitman” Hathway has lost only once as a professional, a unanimous decision defeat against veteran Mike Pyle. Hathaway has looked very impressive so far in his young career, but he has not faced nearly the level of competition that Kim has faced. In fact, Kim represents easily the best fighter that Hathaway has ever faced. Hathaway is a skilled wrestler with a good top game and impressive positional control. I think that, if he tries to stand with Kim, he is going to be in for some trouble. Kim is the better boxer and much better at controlling fights in the clinch. If Hathaway can secure some takedowns, though, and control the fight from top position, I think Kim will have a hard time mounting any offense off his back.

John Hathaway is a skilled fighter with a bright future, but right now Kim is just too much for him. Kim is the better striker, has a better clinch game, and is at least as effective a wrestler as Hathaway. Once Hathaway gets more top-level experience, he will be a formidable figure in UFC’s Welterweight division, but for right now I don’t think he is ready for Kim. Expect the Korean to take a relatively one-sided unanimous decision.

Prediction: The Stun Gun by Unanimous Decision.

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