Author: MMA Betting

UFC Lightweight Bout: Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson

Odds:  (-325 Henderson / +250 Thomson )

Betting Pick:  Henderson

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n the main event of UFC on FOX 10, former UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will look to get back in the win column as he faces top contender Josh Thomson. In his last fight, Henderson suffered his second loss to fellow WEC veteran Anthony Pettis. Thomson, on the other hand, is coming off a complete destruction of Nate Diaz, so Henderson is going to have his hands full trying to reassert himself as a major player in the 155 pound title picture.

Benson Henderson is a former WEC and UFC Lightweight champion with an extremely dynamic offensive skill set. He’s a very quick and athletic wrestler with great striking, a solid ground game, and exceptional endurance. He is one of the biggest fighters in the Lightweight division, but despite his height and bulk he is just as quick as most of his opponents. Henderson’s size, technique, and raw athletic ability combine to make him one of the most formidable opponents in his weight class. Against Thomson, who is a dominant grappler with dangerous submissions, Henderson’s most important goal has to be staying off his back. Thomson is hard to escape from and if Henderson is stuck in a defensive posture his height and strength advantages are both negated. If he can control the positioning in this fight and avoid winding up underneath Thomson, Henderson has all the tools to win this fight and put himself back in position for a title shot.

Josh Thomson was, for years, one of the best Lightweights in the world outside of the UFC. While he has suffered a few recent losses, they were all to top-level opponents and he has just as many impressive wins under his belt. He arrived in the UFC with a headkick knockout of tough opponent Nate Diaz, and taking a second tough fight instead of waiting for champion Anthony Pettis to recover from an injury shows how much of a competitor he is. He’s going to be giving up some length and reach to Henderson, which could cause problems in the striking game, but he is excellent at closing the distance and securing takedowns, and if he can get inside Henderson’s lanky limbs he could definitely put him in a bad position. The key for Thomson is to avoid striking with Henderson as much as he can. The more time he spends clinched up or on top of Henderson, the better his chances for victory.

There is no doubt that Josh Thomson is one of the world’s best 155 pounders, or that he is capable of beating anyone in the division on any given night. That said, I think that Henderson walks into this fight with too many advantages to ignore. Thomson is a top-level grappler, but Henderson is a long way from a slouch himself. Couple that with his superior striking and reach, and I just think Henderson has more ways to score points than Thomson does. This should be a close, hard-fought affair, but I see Henderson stuffing enough takedowns and landing enough punches to earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Ben “Smooth” Henderson by Decision.

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UFC Middleweight Bout: Luke Rockhold vs. Constantinos Philippou

Odds: (-400 Rockhold /+300 Philippou )

Betting Pick: Rockhold

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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 35, long-time Strikeforce standout Luke Rockhold will look to recover from a disastrous UFC debut as he squares off against Costas Philippou. Rockhold came into UFC looking like a world-beater, but was demolished by Vitor Belfort in his first appearance. Now, he faces another stiff test in the heavy-handed Philippou.

Since debuting in March of 2011, Costas Philippou has put together an impressive 5-2 record in the UFC. He has a solid overall game, but his best attribute is definitely his punching power. Philippou will probably never be a champion or a serious title contender, but he is a dangerous fighter with a versatile skill set who is capable of testing any fighter in the world. Against Rockhold, he will definitely be the more dangerous striker. If he can successfully employ a sprawl and brawl gameplan and keep Rockhold from securing takedowns, he will be in good position to pull off the upset here.

Luke Rockhold, despite his vicious knockout loss to Belfort, is one of the UFC’s best Middleweights. Rockhold is a prolific grappler who uses solid technical boxing to back up his dominant wrestling and submission game. He has great positional control and can finish fights on the ground from a variety of positions. He isn’t the world’s most prolific striker, but he isn’t helpless on his feet either. He would be well advised to avoid standing with Philippou, who has more than enough punching power to make him pay for any mistakes.

Ultimately, I think Rockhold is just too much for Philippou. Philippou certainly has a puncher’s chance, but I think Rockhold’s wrestling will ultimately be the deciding factor. I don’t see a way for Costas to keep this fight standing, and on his back underneath Rockhold is not where he wants to be. Philippou is a tough guy, and should be able to hang around, but I think Rockhold will control the action en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Luke Rockhold by Unanimous Decision.

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