Author: MMA Betting

UFC Heavyweight Title Bout:  Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez

Odds:  ( -200 Dos Santos / + 160 Velasquez )

Betting Pick:  Dos Santos

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In the main event of UFC 155, UFC Heavyweight champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos will defend his belt against former champion Cain Velasquez, the man he beat to earn the title. The big question heading into their first matchup was whether or not dos Santos had what it took to deal with the dominant wrestling of Velasquez. That ended up being a total non-factor, though, as dos Santos completely blitzed Velasquez with strikes en route to a very easy knockout. Will things play out differently this time around? Will Velasquez be able to get his wrestling game working and take dos Santos to the mat, or will dos Santos overwhelm him with strikes yet again?

Cain Velasquez, the former UFC Heavyweight champion, has a dangerous mix of powerful wrestling, knockout power, and amazing hand speed. He’s great in the clinch, devastating from top position, and throws much harder and faster than most UFC Heavyweights. It’s obvious, though, from watching their last fight that he does not have what it takes to stand and box with dos Santos. If he wants to have a chance in this bout, he is going to have to get his wrestling going as early as possible. If he can make dos Santos try to work off his back he is in a great position to wear him down with ground and pound and eventually win, but if he has to stand with the champion for any period of time he is going to get knocked out again.

Junior dos Santos is, without a doubt, the scariest striker in the UFC’s Heavyweight division. His boxing is fast, accurate, and devastatingly powerful. He has blitzed his way through the Heavyweight division, handling each new challenge with relative ease. Many pundits considered Velasquez a stiff challenge for dos Santos, but he knocked the former champion out in barely over a minute. In his last fight, he exploded Frank Mir, another former UFC champion, midway through the second round. If this fight plays out on the feet for any period of time, dos Santos will win. The only question is how well he will be able to work off his back if Velasquez manages to take him down consistently.

Basically, this fight comes down to whether or not Velasquez can establish his wrestling game consistently in the early rounds of the fight. If he can, it is possible that he can tire dos Santos out with smothering top control and soften him up with hard shots from top position. I don’t think that is going to happen, though. While it may last a bit longer, I think this will basically be a repeat of their last fight. Velasquez doesn’t have what it takes to stand with dos Santos, and he will have that proven to him fairly early on. Dos Santos by T/KO.

Prediction:  Junior Dos Santos by second round T/KO.

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UFC Lightweight Bout:  Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon

Odds:  ( -230Miller /+180 Lauzon )

Betting Pick:  Miller

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In the semi-main event of UFC 155, two of the UFC’s most prolific Lightweight grapplers will square off as Jim Miller faces Joe Lauzon. These guys have been staples at the top of the UFC Lightweight division for a few years now, and both of them are prolific submission fighters with the ability to end fights from a variety of positions. This is an interesting matchup in that both guys have similar styles and strengths, so something minor could wind up being the determining factor here.

Jim Miller, one half of the fighting Miller brothers, is a prolific grappler with decent striking and solid wrestling. While he has dropped two of his last three fights, he has won eight of his last ten against excellent competition, so his spot at the top of the card is well-deserved. One of the things that makes Miller so exciting to watch is that, unlike many grapplers, he has a very aggressive style and is not afraid to push the pace of his fights to set up his submissions.

Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon is also an extremely talented submission finisher. He is dangerous from any position on the ground and has decent boxing to go along with his ground game. While he is not as physical as Miller, he is probably a superior grappler from a technical standpoint. The key for Lauzon is going to be getting this fight to the ground in advantageous positions. As good as he is off his back, it’s going to be difficult for him to work underneath a grappler of Miller’s caliber successfully.

Basically, this fight is going to come down to which guy can score more points on the feet and which of them ends up in the advantageous position on the ground. In both of those scenarios, I think the edge goes to Jim Miller. He’s a slightly more assertive boxer and definitely a superior wrestler. I think he should earn an edge with his boxing and, when the fight goes to the ground, Miller will be the one controlling pace and position. Miller by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jim Miller by Decision.

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