Author: MMA Betting

Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione Prediction

UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione Odds:  (-250 Nelson / +195 Mitrione ) Betting Pick:  Nelson Bet on this fight at Bovada In the main event of the evening, Matt “Meathead” Mitrione steps up on late notice to replace the injured Shane Carwin against Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Mitrione is a devastating puncher […]

UFC Heavyweight Bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione

Odds:  (-250 Nelson / +195 Mitrione )

Betting Pick:  Nelson

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of the evening, Matt “Meathead” Mitrione steps up on late notice to replace the injured Shane Carwin against Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Mitrione is a devastating puncher who is coming off a decision loss to Cheick Kongo, but Nelson represents perhaps the stiffest challenge of his career. Despite his doughy physique, Nelson is a devastating counter puncher with solid wrestling and great jiu-jitsu from top position. A win here would be a huge step in Mitrione’s young career, but he is going to have to find a way to deal with Nelson’s considerable bulk and superior versatility if he wants to avoid a second straight defeat.

Matt “Meathead” Mitrione is a durable, powerful young Heavyweight prospect. With only six professional fights under his belt, he is still extremely raw, but his punching power can’t be denied and his wrestling shows some promise. His ground game is not much to speak of, but he is a big and strong Heavyweight with one-punch knockout power. Against Nelson he is going to have to work hard to avoid getting taken down, because he will get dominated with Nelson’s huge bulk on top of him. Even on the feet, he is going to have his hands full, because Nelson has a ton of punching power himself and is the faster and more accurate striker as well.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson hardly fits the profile of a typical fighter. His huge belly and seemingly flabby physique are deceiving, though, as he is actually quite light on his feet and has great hand speed. He uses his bulk very well to control opponents on the ground, and has great jiu-jitsu from top position. His best weapon, though, is his devastating counterpunching. Nelson has had great success beating opponents to the punch with powerful counter shots that leave them flattened. Against Mitrione he will be the better wrestler and the quicker, more technical striker as well. He just has to avoid overextending himself, because Mitrione definitely has the power to exploit his chin.

This seems like a mismatch. Mitrione is a fine young fighter with great punching power, but I don’t see any single area where he is better than Nelson. Nelson can match him in power but is the quicker and more technical striker. Nelson is also a better wrestler and has a better ground game. I think Nelson controls this one easily with takedowns and batters Mitrione from top position for a one-sided decision win.

Prediction:  Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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George Sotiropoulos vs. Ross Pearson Prediction

UFC Lightweight Bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs. Ross Pearson Odds:  (-115 Sotiropoulos / -115 Pearson ) Betting Pick:  Sotiropoulos Bet on this fight at Bovada In the main event of UFC on FX 6, Australia’s own George Sotiropoulos will look to halt a two-fight skid against Ross Pearson, who is also coming off a loss. While […]

UFC Lightweight Bout:  George Sotiropoulos vs. Ross Pearson

Odds:  (-115 Sotiropoulos / -115 Pearson )

Betting Pick:  Sotiropoulos

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of UFC on FX 6, Australia’s own George Sotiropoulos will look to halt a two-fight skid against Ross Pearson, who is also coming off a loss. While both of these guys have had mixed results as of late, they are both effective ground fighters with top-notch submission skills, so this is an interesting style matchup that should make for an entertaining main event.

George Sotiropoulos is a skilled and effective Australian grappler with great submissions and a developing boxing game. While his standup has steadily improved, he is not a knockout puncher and will never succeed primarily as a striker. Sotiropoulos’ boxing exists only to set up his takedowns and his ground game, which are extremely dangerous. Pearson is also a good grappler, but I think if Sotiropoulos can secure top position he should be able to control the pace of the fight. He just has to be careful not to get caught and wind up on his back underneath Pearson.

Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson is a solid, well-rounded Featherweight who is effective in all areas of fighting but not truly great at any of them. He has serviceable boxing, solid wrestling, and a good ground game, but he isn’t the kind of fighter who can take over a fight in any one range. Against Sotiropoulos, his main focus has to be on staying off his back. If he has to work off his back against Sotiropoulos he is doomed. There is no guarantee he will win from any position, but underneath Sotiropoulos he will get manhandled.

I think this fight favors Sotiropoulos in nearly every way. He is the better striker, the better wrestler, and the better submission grappler, and he should be able to easily control this fight for a routine unanimous decision.

Prediction:  George Sotiropoulos by Unanimous Decision.

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Hector Lombard vs. Rousimar Palhares Prediction

UFC Middleweight Bout:  Hector Lombard vs. Rousimar Palhares Odds:  (-210 Lombard /+170 Palhares ) Betting Pick:  Lombard Bet on this fight at Bovada In the semi-main event of UFC on FX 6, leglock king Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Cuban wrecking machine Hector Lombard in a Middleweight showdown. Lombard was one of the […]

UFC Middleweight Bout:  Hector Lombard vs. Rousimar Palhares

Odds:  (-210 Lombard /+170 Palhares )

Betting Pick:  Lombard

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In the semi-main event of UFC on FX 6, leglock king Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares will square off against Cuban wrecking machine Hector Lombard in a Middleweight showdown. Lombard was one of the most highly-regarded Middleweights outside of the UFC for years, but he fizzled in his UFC debut against Tim Boetsch. This is his chance to live up to some of the hype he brought into the Octagon with him, but Palhares’s leglocks are the stuff nightmares are made of, so he is going to have his hands full if he wants to avoid two losses in a row to start his UFC career.

Hector Lombard, a former Olympic judoka, was considered the best Middleweight in the world outside of the UFC before his disappointing Octagon debut against Tim Boetsch. Despite his poor showing in that fight, though, Lombard’s resume is hard to argue with. He has solid takedowns and a decent ground game, but his best weapon is definitely his vicious power punching. Lombard throws with dangerous intentions, and if he lands a power punch there are very few fighters in the world who can handle it. There is no question that he is a better striker than Palhares in terms of both technique and punching power. His goal in this fight has to be to keep Palhares from taking him down or pulling guard. On the feet this fight will be a slaughter, but if Palhares can force it to the ground, Lombard might find himself in a lot of trouble trying to defend against leglocks.

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares is a force of nature on the mat. His standup is rudimentary at best, and he isn’t the best wrestler in the division by any means, but he attacks the legs of his opponents with reckless abandon and has no equal when it comes to leglock and ankle lock submissions. It is imperative for Palhares to force this fight to the ground as soon as possible, because if he has to box with Lombard for an extended period he is going to get his head knocked off. On the mat, Palhares is on a completely different level from Lombard, and should be able to submit him if this one plays out on the ground for an extended period.

Basically, this fight comes down to whether or not Palhares can force a ground fight. If he can effectively pull guard or take Lombard down, I don’t think he will have much trouble finding an opening for a submission. If he can’t, Lombard is going to put him to sleep with power punches. In the end, I think Lombard’s defensive wrestling and physical strength will be his biggest advantages. I think he should be able to hold Palhares off effectively, force a boxing match, and eventually catch Palhares for a T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Hector Lombard by second round T/KO.

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