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Mauricio Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson Prediction

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Rua vs. Gustafsson Odds: ( +185 Rua / -235 Gustafsson ) Betting Pick: Gustafsson Bet on this fight at Bovada In the semi-main event of UFC on FOX 5, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will face a stern challenge in the form of up-and-coming Swedish prospect Alexander “The […]

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Rua vs. Gustafsson

Odds: ( +185 Rua / -235 Gustafsson )

Betting Pick: Gustafsson

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the semi-main event of UFC on FOX 5, former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will face a stern challenge in the form of up-and-coming Swedish prospect Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. While Shogun has slipped a bit from the form that made him the most feared Light Heavyweight in the world in his PRIDE heyday, he is still a formidable striker with an underrated ground game. Gustafsson, though, could present some serious problems for Shogun in that he is also a skilled striker with a solid ground game who is younger, fresher, more physical, and probably in better condition. If Shogun wants to avoid a loss here he is going to need to fight smart and not gas out early and allow Gustafsson to overwhelm him.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was, at one point, the scariest Light Heavyweight on the planet. He destroys his opponents with accurate and powerful punching, devastating knees from the clinch, and an aggressive fight style that kept opponents running scared. Since making his UFC debut, he has suffered a series of knee injuries which have impacted his fitness fairly seriously. He still has the technique and power that made him such a terror in his PRIDE days, but his ability to push the pace for the entirety of a fight has degraded significantly. Still, anyone who is willing to stand in front of him is putting themselves in danger, because he has lost none of his ability to finish fights with strikes.

Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson is one of the UFC’s most exciting and up and coming Light Heavyweights. A heavy-handed striker with solid wrestling and submissions, Gustfafsson’s versatility and athleticism make him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the division. His only loss came at the hands of Phil Davis, when he was outmuscled and caught in an anaconda choke on the mat. Against Shogun he probably doesn’t have to worry about getting taken down and submitted, since he is probably the superior of the two in terms of grappling. If he can avoid getting caught on the feet, chances are he can land some good shots of his own and probably score some points with takedowns.

While Shogun is certainly the more established of the two, I think this fight favors Gustafsson. Both guys are capable of ending fights with strikes, but I think Gustafsson has the better gas tank and should be able to take Shogun off his game with superior grappling. This will be a close fight, but I think Gustafsson should be able to land enough punches and score with takedowns to earn a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.

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Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz Prediction

UFC Lightweight Title Bout: Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz Odds: ( -165 Henderson / +135 Diaz ) Betting Pick: Bendo Bet on this fight at Bovada In the main event of UFC on FOX 5, UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will defend his title against top contender Nate Diaz. Henderson is coming off back-to-back […]

UFC Lightweight Title Bout: Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

Odds: ( -165 Henderson / +135 Diaz )

Betting Pick: Bendo

Bet on this fight at Bovada

In the main event of UFC on FOX 5, UFC Lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will defend his title against top contender Nate Diaz. Henderson is coming off back-to-back wins agaisnt former champion Frankie Edgar and has been on a tear since coming to UFC from WEC, but Diaz represents an entirely new sort of challenge. Henderson is one of the most versatile and athletic fighters in the UFC Lightweight division, but Diaz’s high-volume and unorthodox striking is tough for opponents to figure out and he is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the division. If Henderson wants to keep his title he is going to have to find a way to deal with Diaz’s striking and figure out how to control him on the ground without getting submitted, which is a tall order.

Nate Diaz is one of the Lightweight division’s toughest fighters to figure out. Like his brother Nick, he has very unorthodox striking that comes at opponents from odd angles and punishes them more with volume than with the power on any individual punch. His ground game is spectacular, and he has submissions from every position. One of Diaz’s best attributes is his ability to get in his opponents heads and throw them off their game with trash talk and mind games. If there is one hole in Diaz’s game it is his wrestling, which is not great, although he does have very good judo-style throws from the clinch. The only things that have traditionally held Diaz back are his subpar wrestling and the fact that that he is not a physically imposing fighter and has a tendency to get outmuscled by some of his opponents.

Benson “Smooth” Henderson earned the UFC Lightweight title by defeating former champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar twice, although the second win came in extremely controversial fashion. Henderson is a very dominant fighter with a versatile offensive skillset who can get the job done with striking, wrestling, and submissions. His striking is the weakest part of his game but it is still very effective. The biggest advantage Henderson has in this fight is his wrestling, which should enable him to neutralize Diaz’s effective striking. If Henderson can avoid being submitted from top position, he will be in a great position to hold Diaz down and grind out a decision over five rounds.

This is a very tough fight to call because both guys have so many ways they can end fights. In the end, I think this going to come down to how effectively Henderson can secure takedowns and how safely he can work from top position. Diaz is arguably the best fighter off his back in the Lightweight division, and in a boxing match I think he will consistently outland Henderson and keep him on the defensive. In the end, though, I think Diaz’s lack of wrestling and physicality will really hurt him and allow Henderson to secure takedowns and earn points. Diaz will get his shots in, but his inability to land single knockout punches will prove his undoing. I see Henderson earning a narrow decision victory on the strength of his takedowns and top control.

Prediction: Ben Henderson by Decision.

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The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Odds – Team Nelson vs. Team Carwin

The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale will take place on December 15, 2012 at The Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Main Event was originally scheduled between the two coaches Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. Unfortunately Carwin suffered a knee injury forcing him off the card. TUF 10 Alum Matt “Meathead” Mitrione has stepped in to take the fight. The Co Main Event will bring us Finalist #1 vs. Finalist #2 (still TBD) to fight for the right to be crowned TUF 16 champion and the UFC contract.

TUF 16 Finale Odds with be available soon.

Main Card:

Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione