Author: MMA Betting

UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks

Odds:  ( +110 Kampmann /-140 Hendricks )

Betting Pick:  Hendricks

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, Johny Hendricks will look to keep riding the momentum of his biggest career win against dangerous Danish contender Martin “Hitman” Kampmann. Hendricks, in the midst of a four-fight winning streak, is coming off back to back victories over former title challengers Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck. Kampmann is a dangerous test for him, though, because has an extremely versatile skill set and is a threat to finish fights with strikes and submissions. A win here very likely puts Hendricks in the title picture, but Kampmann is also looking to assert himself as a top contender, so this should be a very competitive bout.

Martin “Hitman” Kampmann is one of the Welterweight division’s most versatile and dynamic fighters. Kampmann’s kickboxing is very strong and he has dangerous submissions from a number of positions. He isn’t the strongest wrestler in the division, but he’s fairly decent and has very good takedown defense. I think he is probably a better technical striker than Hendricks, so if he can find a way to keep Hendricks from getting up in his face he has a decent chance of outboxing him for three rounds. I don’t see Kampmann being able to take Hendricks down or win this fight off his back, but if he can keep this fight at range and beat Hendricks to the punch, he could very well leave a winner.

Johny Hendricks is one of the most exciting up and coming prospects in the Welterweight division. A tough, rugged boxer with great takedowns and top control, Hendricks is exceptionally good at imposing his will on his opponents. Whether it is with takedowns, big power punches, or dirty boxing from in close, Hendricks has a way of pushing the pace and making it difficult for his opponents to find their footing and start establishing their own gameplan. To beat Kampmann, Hendricks is going to have to be his usual aggressive self. If he can stick close to Kampmann and bully him around with superior physicality, he will be in a great position to make it five in a row.

Ultimately, I think Hendricks has a clear edge here. Kampmann has the skills to win, but it would depend on him keeping Hendricks at bay, something no one has been able to do recently. I think Hendricks will close the distance on the feet, bruise Kampmann up on the inside, and score some points with takedowns and top control en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Johny Hendricks by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Welterweight Title Bout:  Georges St-Pierre vs. Carlos Condit

Odds:  (-325 St-Pierre / +250 Condit )

Betting Pick:  St-Pierre

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In the main event of UFC 154, UFC Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre returns to action following a long injury layoff against Interim UFC Welterweight champion “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit. St. Pierre has been out of action for nearly 18 months, and there are always questions about guys who have been away that long or suffered such severe injuries, but before he hurt his knee he was one of the dominant champions in the history of the sport. Condit is a very dangerous and well-rounded fighter in his own right, but I think this one is going to come down to whether or not St. Pierre’s knees will allow him to effectively change levels to work his trademark ground game and whether he will have enough gas in the tank to control a five-round fight.

Carlos Condit, who is riding a very impressive five-fight win streak, is one of the most versatile and dynamic fighters in the UFC Welterweight division. Condit is one of the division’s most prolific finishers, and is just as capable of putting fights away with powerful strikes as he is with slick submissions. Anywhere a fight plays out, Condit is a threat. There is very little question that Condit is the slicker boxer of these two. The question is whether or not he will be able to effectively establish a striking game in the face of St. Pierre’s aggressive wrestling. As good as Condit’s jiu-jitsu may be, I don’t see him winning this fight if he is forced to fight off his back underneath St. Pierre. BJ Penn looked lost in the fact of St. Pierre’s top game, and I don’t expect Condit to fare any better. If he wants to win this fight and remove the Interim in front of his title, he is going to have to find a way to do it on his feet.

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre is the greatest Welterweight in UFC History, and would be a unanimous choice for the pound for pound throne if it wasn’t for the existence of Anderson Silva. Early in his career, St. Pierre proved that he is a dynamic and exciting fighter who can outstrike or outgrapple his opponents with equal ease. Since suffering a fluke knockout loss to Matt Serra years ago, though, St. Pierre has turned into a one-man takedown machine, preferring to shoot early and often and grind out wins from top position. Some critics are less than enamored of the strategy, but no one in the sport employs it better than St. Pierre. The real questions for St. Pierre are what kind of shape he will be in and whether his knee injuries will affect his ability to rapidly change levels for takedowns.

Long layoff or no, this is St. Pierre’s fight to lose. Condit is a dangerous finisher, but if he has a weak point it is his wrestling, and that is going to prove fatal. I don’t see a way for Condit to prevent St. Pierre from securing takedowns, and “Rush” has proven time and again that once he has you on your back and is on top of you, he is not going to relent. Condit is tough, and St. Pierre is not necessarily a great finisher anymore, so this one should go the distance, but I think St. Pierre will control the action with his wrestling and earn a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: GSP by Unanimous Decision.

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