Author: MMA Betting

UFC Lightweight Bout:  Takanori Gomi vs. Mac Danzig

Odds: (+200 Gomi /-260 Danzig )

Betting Pick:  Danzig

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In a featured Lightweight matchup, former PRIDE champion “The Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi will do battle with Mac Danzig, the winner of Season 6 of The Ultimate Fighter. Gomi was, at one time, the most feared Lightweight on the planet, but his best days are behind him. Still, he has dangerous punching power and underrated wrestling. Danzig, for his part, has a very well-rounded offense, but is prone to being overpowered and controlled. Both of these guys have dynamic skill sets, so this should be an exciting fight.

Mac Danzig, an Ultimate Fighter winner who has had an up and down career in the UFC, is nevertheless a very dangerous and versatile fighter who can finish fights with strikes and submissions. In terms of technique, he is as dangerous as any fighter in the Lightweight division. What holds Danzig back is that he is a long way from physically imposing and very frequently finds himself overpowered in his fights. He has a very solid chin, but his wrestling is subpar and his submission defense is porous. Against Gomi he will probably be the superior technical striker, but he will be at a disadvantage in terms of wrestling and punching power.

Takanori Gomi was once rightfully considered the most dangerous Lightweight on the planet. During his PRIDE heyday, he was a nightmare for opponents with his dominant punching power and underrated wrestling and top game. He still has very heavy hands and effective wrestling, but his technique is sort of wacky and not always very effective. He has an excellent chin, but his submission defense is so poor as to be almost non-existent. Against Danzig he will not want to utilize his wrestling, because Danzig is good enough off of his back that he can easily exploit that weakness. He is going to want to try to land hard and often if he wants a second consecutive win.

At this point, Gomi enters every fight with not much more than a puncher’s chance. He either knocks his opponent out or he loses. While he is a better wrestler than Danzig, if he tries to take Danzig down he is going to find himself submitted. On the feet, I think Danzig is quick enough and technical enough to exploit Gomi’s weird stance and awkward technique. Danzig by decision.

Prediction:  Mac Danzig by Unanimous Decision.

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Middleweight Bout: Rich Franklin vs. Cung Le

Odds:  (-315 Franklin /+245 Le )

Betting Pick:  Franklin

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In the main event of the evening, former UFC Middleweight champion Rich “Ace” Franklin will square off against former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Cung Le. Both of these guys are experienced veterans with great striking who appear to be nearing the end of their careers. The likelihood of either guy impacting the title picture again is slim to none, but they are very evenly matched and have complementary skill sets, so this should make for an exciting fight between two guys more than willing to stand in front of each other and let their hands go.

Cung Le was, for years, one of Strikeforce’s biggest stars. A talented kickboxer with great takedowns and a penchant for flashy, effective kicks, Le was one of the most entertaining and effective Middleweights outside of the UFC. While he was not as active as many other long-time veterans, he has been around the sport for over six years, and is a very dangerous fighter offensively. Le is a threat to finish with his hands and feet, and anyone who tries to fight him in close runs the risk of being dumped on the mat in dramatic fashion. He isn’t a great ground fighter, but he has very unusual and effective takedowns and throws which allow him to neutralize his opponents when they try to clinch and protect themselves from his strikes. Against Franklin he is going to have to be careful not to overextend in the striking exchanges and leave his chin open, because Franklin throws hard punches and Le has been victimized by strikes before.

Rich “Ace” Franklin was the UFC’s biggest Middleweight star until he ran into the wrecking machine known as Anderson Silva. After suffering two crushing defeats at Silva’s hands, or knees to put it more accurately, Franklin seemed to lose some of his focus. He has spent the time since drifting back and forth between Middleweight, Light Heavyweight, and various catchweights. Still, Franklin is an extremely effective boxer with a very solid chin and great technique. He hits hard, but isn’t a one-punch kind of knockout artist. He relies more on accurate punching and solid hand speed to pile punishment on his opponents. Against Cung Le he is going to have to be wary of the unorthodox kicks. In a pure boxing match I think Franklin is the better fighter, but Le has a way of working those crazy kicks in when his opponents least expect them.

Ultimately, I think the edge here goes to Franklin. Le is a very dangerous striker, but he has had trouble dealing with other good strikers in the past. His only two career losses came at the hands of the two guys capable of giving as good as they took on their feet. I don’t think Le has enough left to knock out the notoriously durable Franklin, and I don’t think Franklin has the power to exploit Le’s somewhat suspect chin, but Franklin should have more than enough hand speed and technique to significantly outpoint Le. Franklin by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Rich “Ace” Franklin by Unanimous Decision.

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