Author: MMA Betting

UFC Interim Bantamweight Title Bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao

Odds:  (+155 Faber / -190 Barao )

Betting Pick:  Barao

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In the main event of the evening, former WEC Featherweight champion Urijah “The California Kid” Faber will square off against prolific jiu-jitsu ace Renan “Barao” Pegado in a Bantamweight matchup. Faber has fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now, but Barao is a phenomenal grappler currently riding an insane 28 fight win streak, which makes this a very compelling bout with almost guaranteed title shot implications. With Faber having already suffered a loss to Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, a win here is absolutely necessary if he wants to remain relevant in the title picture, while a 29th straight win for Barao will almost certainly guarantee him a shot at the belt.

Urijah Faber was one of the WEC’s biggest stars and one of the top Featherweights in the world for years, but after two losses to Mike Thomas Brown and a defeat at the hands of reigning Featherweight king Jose Aldo, he made the drop to a more natural 135 pounds. He gave Cruz a good fight in his losing effort, and in his last fight rebounded nicely with a submission win over former Bantamweight champion Brian Bowles. One thing that makes Faber so dangerous is his offensive versatility. He is a solid wrestler with good, powerful striking and very dangerous submissions. Against Barao, though, I think he would be very unwise to try and initiate a ground fight, because as good as Faber’s submissions are, Barao’s are substantially better. Instead, Faber should concentrate on using his wrestling defensively and trying to force a standup war, where I think he has the edge in power, accuracy, and hand speed. He just has to be careful not to get too reckless and let Barao capitalize for easy takedowns, because he is going to be in some trouble if he has to work off his back underneath the superior grappler.

Renan “Barao” Pegado is one of the most exciting and prolific grapplers in the UFC at any weight, and he is riding a nearly-unprecedented 28 fight winning streak. Since debuting in the WEC, he has steadily moved up in competition and has easily handled all of his opponents so far. There is no question, though, that Faber is in every way the toughest fighter he has ever had to face. Not only has Pegado never faced anyone who can press the issue on the feet like Faber can, he has never faced anyone as well-prepared to test his strengths on the ground. In order to dictate his kind of fight, Barao  is going to have to find a way to crack Faber’s wrestling while also avoiding getting caught by big strikes, which is much easier said than done.

This is a very tough fight to call. Barao is, without a doubt, the best pure grappler in the Bantamweight division, but Faber is easily the more versatile fighter of the two. If Barao can secure takedowns, I really don’t like Faber’s chances of winning this fight having to fight off his back. If Faber can use his wrestling advantage defensively, though, I think he has all the tools to outstrike Barao with relative ease. In the end, I think the slight edge has to go to Pegado. Faber is a good standup fighter, but his biggest strength is the way that he mixes his offense up and throws punches to set up takedowns. I think eventually Faber will either get too reckless on the feet and get taken down, or that he will shoot for a takedown himself and wind up getting swept. Either way, I see Faber making a mistake in the later rounds and Barao capitalizing on it. Pegado by submission.

Prediction: Renan Barao by fourth round Sub.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

Odds: (-360 Lombard / +270 Boetsch )

Betting Pick:  Lombard

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In the semi-main event of the evening, Hector Lombard, long considered the top Middleweight in the world outside of the UFC, makes his Octagon debut against tough veteran Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch. Lombard, a former Olympic judoka and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, is currently riding a 24 fight unbeaten streak and has not lost since dropping a decision to Gegard Mousasi all the way back in 2006. Many expect that Lombard will be fast-tracked toward a shot at Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title assuming he can get past Boetsch, but Boetsch is a well-rounded and ultra-tough veteran who showed in his last fight against Yushin Okami that you can never count him out of a fight. If Lombard wants to cement himself as a major player in the Middleweight title scene he is going to have to keep the pressure on start to finish and not give Boetsch a chance to stage another come from behind shocker.

Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch is a very tough and versatile veteran who, in his last outing, mounted one of the more memorable comebacks in recent memory when he put away Yushin Okami near the end of their fight after being dominated for 2 and a half rounds. Boetsch has a great chin, very dangerous striking, and an underrated ground game. He isn’t among the best in the world at anything, but he doesn’t have many glaring holes, he puts it all together will, and his persistence and toughness allow him to hang in fights long enough to find his opening and pounce. Boetsch represents a good test for Lombard’s title readiness in that he can hang with anyone anywhere a fight goes and is dangerous enough offensively to expose any weaknesses Lombard might be concealing.

Hector Lombard, who holds black belts in both judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and once represented Cuba on the Olympic judo team, is surprisingly more effective in the standup than he is on the ground. He does have very good takedowns and a punishing top control game, but on the feet he is a bulldozer with a huge amount of power in both hands. What makes Lombard so dangerous is that he can push forward constantly throwing huge punches and then just close up and clinch to control his opponents. He is hard to take down, much harder to keep down, and is a match in punching power for any Middleweight on the planet. Against Boetsch he will be the more powerful and technical fighter pretty much anywhere it goes, and his best strategy will be to keep the pressure on and not let Boetsch get settled in.

This is, in my opinion, a one-sided matchup. Not to take anything away from Boetsch, who is extremely tough and has a lot of tools, but Lombard is just on a different level. I don’t think Boetsch has a way to get Lombard down, and I don’t think he has a way to survive the howitzers Lombard throws on the feet. I think Lombard will fight aggressively and control the action early before overwhelming Boetsch with strikes for the T/KO.

Prediction: Hector Lombard by first round T/KO.

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