Author: MMA Betting

UFC Middleweight Title Fight:  Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen

Odds:  (-300 Silva / +230 Sonnen )

Betting Pick:  Sonnen

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The main event of the evening features one of the most highly-anticipated rematches in the sport’s recent history, as Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva defends his title for the second time against brash challenger Chael Sonnen. The last time these two men met, Sonnen dominated four and a half rounds before succumbing to a triangle armbar in the closing moments. This time, though, Sonnen’s constant barrage of trash talk seems to have seriously gotten to the champion, who in a recent media call promised to break both of Sonnen’s legs, knock all of his teeth out, and break his face. This outburst from the normally-reserved champion has only served to heighten anticipation for an already exciting style vs. style matchup. Can Silva stay standing long enough to make good on his promises of physical destruction? Can Sonnen avoid the triangle choke from inside Silva’s guard that has plagued his entire career? All of that remains to be seen, but the style matchup here coupled with the legitimate bad blood that has been stirred up between these two guarantees that this is going to be an exciting and hard-fought main event.

Chael Sonnen has become one of the most controversial figures in the UFC. A consummate self-promoter, Sonnen has become as known for his over the top persona and never-ending supply of trash talk as he has for his wrestling, which is among the most dominant in the sport. Sonnen has always been one Mixed Martial Arts’ most prolific wrestlers, but he surprised a lot of observers the last time he fought Silva by sticking some very stern jabs into the champion’s face. Not even the most ardent Silva supporter can deny that, for the first four and a half rounds of their last meeting, Sonnen had his way with the champion and made it look easy. Sonnen scored takedowns at will and worked over Silva with vicious ground and pound for the entirety of the fight. Unfortunately for Sonnen, he was unable to close the deal, and his notorious lack of submission defense finally caught up with him when he was trapped in a Silva triangle armbar. Throughout his career, Sonnen has been woefully incapable of defending submissions, especially the triangle, which is beyond disastrous for a guy whose entire game plan is to take every opponent down, sit in their guard, and work his ground and pound. Until Sonnen either starts effectively passing the guard following his takedowns or learns to defend submissions, he is going to be severely limiting his success.

Anderson “Spider” Silva is undeniably the most dominant champion in the sport today. His last legitimate loss came all the way back in 2003, when he was still in the early stages of his career. Since then, he has used his effective jiu-jitsu and devastating striking to put together a long string of highlight-reel destructions. There is no way to deny that Silva is the most creative, dynamic, and effective striker in the sport, and anyone who is willing to stand with him is in for a huge amount of pain. The only hole in Silva’s game is, and always has been, his takedown defense. He is a very skilled grappler, and has great submissions off his back, but sometimes he looks like he is trying to defend takedowns wearing ice skates. He has absolutely no answer for Sonnen’s wrestling the last time they fought, and it was only his ability to keep Sonnen from posturing up by using his jiu-jitsu that kept him from getting finished during the first four rounds. I don’t think Silva can expect to take four rounds of punishment like that again without getting stopped, so if he wants to avoid dropping his title he is either going to have to find a way to keep this fight standing, where he could destroy Sonnen with relative ease, or be more aggressive off his back and try to submit Sonnen earlier in the fight.

Silva has never been good at stopping takedowns, and I see no reason to expect him to all of a sudden be able to prevent Sonnen from putting him on his back. As good as Silva’s striking clearly is, Sonnen showed in the first round of their last fight that he isn’t afraid of getting in the champion’s face and throwing some punches of his own. Clearly Sonnen is not even remotely on the same level as Silva on the feet, and in an extended standup fight Silva will eventually overwhelm him, but Sonnen has the luxury of being able to throw at will while even the smallest mistake from Silva is going to end up with him getting taken down. Clearly, as the last fight showed, Silva has the jiu-jitsu to make Sonnen pay for his one-dimensional ground game, but if he waits 4 rounds like he did last time I don’t think he is making it out of this fight with the belt. If Silva wins this fight, it will be by submission, but I don’t like his chances of surviving another ground and pound onslaught from Sonnen. At -260 I can’t imagine putting money on the off chance that Silva catches Sonnen in another triangle choke. I like Sonnen at +210 to control this fight from top position and overwhelm Silva with ground and pound for the T/KO and his first taste of UFC gold.

Prediction:  Chael “The American Gangster” Sonnen via fourth round T/KO.

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UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin

Odds:  (+250 Ortiz /-325 Griffin )

Betting Pick:  Griffin

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In the semi-main event, two former Light Heavyweight champions will collide as newly-inducted Hall of Famer “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz will square off against perennial fan favorite Forrest Griffin in a decisive rubber match. Twice before these two have fought, and while each has one win over the other, this series is interesting in that both of their wins came in decisions they did not deserve. In their first fight, Forrest clearly got the better of Ortiz but took a confusing split decision loss. The next time they met, Griffin was awarded the split decision in a fight Ortiz clearly controlled. Hopefully this third meeting will actually end with the best man winning and settle matters once and for all.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a UFC legend well-deserving of his Hall of Fame induction, which will occur the night before what is likely his final fight in the Octagon. Ortiz was a pioneer of the modern sport, dominating the Light Heavyweight division with his mix of wrestling, ground and pound, and severely underrated jiu-jitsu. Age and a string of debilitating back and neck injuries, though, robbed him of some of the physicality that made him such a force to be reckoned with, and the fact that he has dropped six of his last eight with one draw clearly illustrates that his days as a top fighter are long since passed. Still, while his body may have betrayed him, he is still a savvy veteran with much underrated technical skills on the ground. He can’t change levels for takedowns as quick as he once did, but he still knows how to capitalize on an opening and can turn a mistake into a submission as well as he ever could, a lesson Ryan Bader learned the hard way. In many ways, Forrest is as good an opponent as exists for Ortiz, because he has such a reactive style and isn’t the kind of guy with any one overwhelming skill that lets him take a fight over. As long as Ortiz fights smart and doesn’t get too reckless, he has a great chance of finding his opening and leaving the sport on a victorious note.

Forrest Griffin, despite his mixed results of late, is one of UFC’s most popular fighters. His war with Stephan Bonnar on the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 paved the way for much of UFC’s current mainstream success, and his gregarious nature and self-deprecatory humor endear him to millions of fans. A big part of Griffin’s appeal is that he comes across as an everyman. He isn’t a dominant athlete and he doesn’t have one world-class skill, but his never say die fighting style and willingness to absorb huge amounts of punishment and keep pushing forward and fighting aggressively make him an easily relatable figure. While he is not one of the best in the world at anything, he makes up for it by not having any really huge holes in his game. He is a decent wrestler, a much underrated grappler, and what he lacks in punching power he makes up for in volume of punches and accuracy. It is unlikely that he will ever reach the top of the Light Heavyweight division again, but he is the kind of guy who you can put in the Octagon against anyone and expect an action-packed, competitive fight.

Put simply, neither of these guys is at the top of their game anymore, but Griffin is much closer than Ortiz. Neither man has the one dominant skill that will enable them to finish the other, but I think Forrest should be able to stop most of Ortiz’s slowed takedown attempts and score enough points with his superior boxing to take, for once, a clear-cut unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Forrest Griffin by Unanimous Decision.

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