Author: moneybags

Ben Henderson vs Donald Cerrone

I called Ben Henderson to win this fight and the Varner fight. I’m kind of torn a little bit again here. Cerrone is a tough sob. A real tough sob, but Ben Henderson is kind of unstoppable, which then brings into the mix, fighter stamina. This is usually where Henderson has been able to take the most advantage in his fights. Cerrone couldn’t submit Henderson with a deep guillotine, a triangle with a shoulder lock that was cranking like crazy. I’ve seen Henderson also avoid being tapped in guillotines in the MFC as well. Its a huge advantage.

This fight is a pick em and the odds reflect it. Pick your favorite.

I’m staying with Henderson.

Shane Roller vs Anthony Njokuani

If Njokuani can avoid the ground I like Njokuani with the speed and reach. Early TKO for Njokuani.

Mike Brown vs Manny Gamburyan

Great fight. Most excited for this one. The odds show Brown @ -600. I think this is closer fight than that. Brown is clearly technically superior on the feet. Boxing is better, wrestling is better, and the jits is better.

Manny though has some power, not that Brown doesn’t, Gamburyan has that wild power because he swings large. You also can’t take away the Judo. I always sympathize with the Judo fighters.

Its so far illogical that Gamburyan wins this fight which is all the reason to take Gamburyan. Its a fun “what if” here because the odds don’t pay to take Brown. So I’ll be backing Manny here as he probably has the toughest fight of his career against the dominating Mike Brown.

Scott Jorgensen vs Antonio Banuelos

Jorgensen. He is on a roll now.

Other Fights On This Card

Leonard Garcia vs Chan Sung Jung

I’m not familar with Chan Sung Jung, so i have to avoid.

Tyler Toner vs Brandon Visher

Takeya Mizugaki vs Rani Yahya

Chad Mendes vs Anthony Morrison

Brad Pickett vs Demetrious Johnson

Alex Karalexis vs Anthony Pettis

Jose Aldo vs Urijah Faber

Aldo has too much speed and the ground game is excellent. Urijah though has superior wrestling and control when on the ground. I see the fight making it out of the first round. However, I don’t see Urijah winning. He is a great fighter, no question about that. Jose Aldo is up there in pound for pound of all fighters. I just hope it hasn’t gone to his head and he is prepped.

I see Faber getting takedowns. I don’t know how long its going to last, but I don’t see Faber controlling Aldo for 5 rounds.

Strengths for Aldo
Reach, Speed, Jiu-Jitsu, Kicks, Knees, Explosiveness

Strengths for Faber
Strength, Speed, Wrestling

My pick is for Aldo to win.

Sportsbook.com has Aldo @ -280 which is better than Bodog @ -325

Overall I thought the show was good.

Henderson couldn’t finish Shields when he had the chance, and you could just see the lightbulb pop up above Shields when he figured out that Dan is horrible on his back. Dan didn’t even fight to get guard back.

The differences between when Hendo fought other jiu-jitsu blackbelts and when he fought Shields, was those guys like to standup. Silva and Gracie would rather standup, and that is stepping right into Dan Henderson’s best spot. You can see what happens when guys decide to trade with Henderson. Shields literally is lucky he hit the ground face first when he got stunned, because I think that is what knocked him back to reality. If he had fell back onto the cage it would have been over. All the credit to Shields. He figured out a way to beat Henderson. Would love to see the rematch against Miller, but I think he moves to the UFC.

I knew Melendez would win. Too much of everything and knows how to defend. I can’t believe he is a purple belt in jiu jitsu, that Gracie school must be tough as hell.

Mo Lawal vs Mousasi was a little disappointing. I think Mousasi wanted to take him into deep water, but that strategy overtook his conditioning. I knew Mousasi would be on his back, but overall Mousasi definitely did more damage. Takedowns count for too much. Lawal was controlling the fight, but doing very little damage when he was on top. This is the first time Lawal has gone the distance so it says alot of Mousasi’s defense as well.

As far as the post fight brawl. I don’t really care. Was kinda interesting. I don’t think its bad for the sport, I don’t think it affects anything with CBS, or it shouldn’t I should say. My DVR stopped recording before the brawl happened had to see it on YouTube.

Main Card

DAN HENDERSON VS JAKE SHIELDS
The main card features newly acquired UFC fighter, Dan Henderson vs the middle weight champion Jake Shields. An interesting talking point is that this fight is being fought at a disadvantageous weight for Shields and an advantage for Dan Henderson. So its technically not a middleweight fight, but its for the middleweight belt. Its also Shields last fight on his contract. Also Dana White has been vocal about acquiring Jake Shields to the UFC. Moreover, Jake Shields can be seen on the latest Ultimate Fighter series as one of Chuck Lidell’s assistant coaches.

This ingredient list makes for a very nice play on Henderson. The odds likely won’t be too in favor of one or the other. The likelihood of Dan Henderson winning, imo, is high just based on the mental aspect and Shields head is probably not going to be in this fight. Expect Dana White to be calling Shields right after the fight.

My pick is Henderson to win.

GEGARD MOUSASI VS MUHAMMED “KING MO” LAWAL
This is going to be a great fight. Two reasons: Gegard has been tearing people up and so has King Mo. Mo is a wrestler with ground and pound and bomb throwing standup, while Mousasi is a K-1 level striker who has taken out the likes of Jacare, Denis Kang, Renato Sobral, Melvin Manhoef, Gary Goodridge, & Sokoudjou.

If you look at the ways these two guys can win, you have to give the edge to Mousasi. Lawal will give anyone trouble with his speed. However, the technique outside of his wrestling ability is subpar. The experience edge definitely goes to Mousasi.

At -250 I like Mousasi. Expect Mousasi to be fighting off his back though much more than we have seen him lately.

GILBERT MELENDEZ VS SHINYA AOKI
Gilbert Melendez is kind of like Lawal in that he is a great wrestler with a huge gas tank and will just wear you down and beat you up. Aoki though is a surgeon. He will be looking for submissions the whole time. Gilbert’s game plays into Aoki’s hands, however, Melendez trains with some top notch jiu-jitsu guys so I’m not sure Aoki is going to be able to catch Melendez. The oddsmakers see it this way as well and have Melendez as a -155 favorite.

My best estimate is that this fight goes the distance and Melendez wins via decision because he will be the busier and more damaging fighter. I would love to see Aoki pull off the sub, but its not likely to happen.

Melendez will win.

Undercard

JASON MILLER VS TIM STOUT
Miller is way favored here. Don’t touch it, but Miller will win.

CHRIS HAWK VS OVINCE ST. PREAUX
DUSTIN WEST VS ANDY UHRICH
JOSH SHOCKMAN VS CALE YARBROUGH
ZACH UNDERWOOD VS HUNTER WORSHAM
DUSTIN ORTIZ VS JUSTIN PENNINGTON
CODY FLOYD VS THOMAS CAMPBELL

It sucked. That’s about it. First time I ever deleted a UFC event off my DVR immediately after watching it.

The Munoz / Grove fight was really good. I thought Grove looked excellent, until Munoz caught him, got top control, and then dropped the meat hooks taking the TKO. Kind of a classic UFC fight actually straight out of the UFC 50’s.

Rafael Dos Anjos, who I picked to win over Terry Etim, did really well. He was able to secure a great armbar to win.

The two title fights showed a very fast and agile Frank Edgar win a *shocking decision against BJ Penn. Essentially this looked like a boxing exhibition this fight. All the props to Edgar though, who is likely to run against some tough competition that will tie up and do some kind of action. BJ might have been hurt.

Anderson Silva did his best comical routine basically making Maia look silly. The crowd booed for at least 3 rounds straight. By the third round, Silva acted very lame, basically running around in circles, kicking ankles, kicking hands if Maia was on his back. Just showing complete an utter dominance BUT not doing anything other than presence. The fight sucked. Mirgliotta warned with a 1 pt deduction to Silva, but it was the friggin 5th round by the time they did this. Rogan mentioned the Pride yellow card system, and believe me there would have been a yellow card given in the first round. The guy is such a great fighter, who knows what the heck he is preserving here by going the distance with outclassed opponents. I read on Bloody Elbow that Dana said he doesn’t even want to see GSP vs Silva. Guess what? I never wanted to see it. Silva could beat GSP, but I don’t want to see Silva disrespect the sport anymore. They should give Silva cans only and create his own circus.

Waste of money to watch this card and you don’t hear me say that ever.

What made it worse was that they showed 1 under card bout. Show the prelims please UFC, this is where the fighters try to move up. They are hungry and are exciting.

Main Card

Anderson Silva (25-4-0) vs Damian Maia (12-1-0)
Not even close. Anderson Silva wins unless he decides he wants to play the jiu jitsu game. He will own Maia on the feet. Maybe Maia can win on the ground he certainly is more than capable and will probably be the worst ground threat he has faced in the cage yet. If the odds are EXTREMELY skewed its worth it to pick Maia. Otherwise, Silva.

BJ Penn (15-5-1)  vs. Frankie Edgar (11-1-0)
Its going to be entertaining, as Frankie Edgar’s wrestling and boxing are excellent. However, BJ Penn carries power and takedown defense better than anyone in his division. Frankie Edgar is probably the best BJ Penn has faced in quite awhile at this weight. There just isn’t anyone in the division that can fight like BJ. Edgar is great against other fighters, but based on the past fights of Penn, he should make Edgar look silly. BJ Penn will win.

Matt Hughes (43-7-0) vs. Renzo Gracie (13-6-1)
Tough call here. Hughes is severely on the downside of his career compared to where he was just a few years ago. Renzo despite also being in his twilight of his career has always been tenacious and will have revenge on his mind for this one. The odds are -400 for Hughes and +300 for Gracie. I would take Gracie with those odds.

Terry Etim (14-2-0)  vs Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4-0)
Should be an awesome match. No pick.

Kendall Grove (11-6-0) vs Mark Munoz (7-1-0)
Munoz could potentially control this whole fight as long as he doesn’t fight dumb. At -170 looks interesting. Should be a good fight though.

Preliminary Card

Alexander Gustafsson (9-0-0) vs. Phil Davis (5-0-0)

Jon Madsen (3-0-0) vs. Mostapha Al-Turk (6-5-0)

Paul Taylor (10-5-1) vs. John Gunderson (22-7-0)

Nick Osipczak (5-0-0) vs Rick Story (9-3-0)

DaMarques Johnson(10-7-0)  vs. Brad Blackburn (15-10-1)

Paul Kelly (9-2-0) vs Matt Veach (11-1-0)
I hope they somehow show this one on the undercard. Very close match, but I like Veach based on the tough fight he had against Frank Edgar.