Author: moneybags

After UFC Fight Night tonight, The Ultimate Fighter middleweights series premieres. The two coaches are Chuck Lidell and Tito Ortiz. Former friends, current rivals, former UFC legends, and currently on the back of their mountainous career.

Check out our picks for tonight’s UFC fight.

Saunders is stepping up to fight Jon Fitch and Ellenberger is getting bumped from the card. Ellenberger is a wrestler first, so the training is likely to have been good for Fitch.

In this fight the top game of Fitch is a major issue for Saunders, but at the same token the standup of Saunders imo is really superior to Fitch’s. The range of Saunders is going to be a problem if this was a 5 round fight. The pace of this fight is going to be important because if Fitch was somehow tired, Saunders would do the knee parade he has become famous for.

Moreover, if Fitch gets tired, Saunders will be able to tee off utilizing the reach. Depending on the odds, I would take a chance with Ben Saunders in this match.

Intertops has Saunders +275 and Fitch -400
Intertops has better odds if you want to bet Fitch.
Intertops has Saunders +275 and Fitch -400

Sportsbook has better odds though if you want to take Saunders.

Intertops has Saunders +325 and Fitch -525

At +325 I like Saunders.

Alves wasn’t cleared for medical reasons, so the Fitch vs Alves fight is off the card. UFC has moved the Pelligrino vs Camoes fight up to the PPV televised portion.

Jon Jones vs Brandon Vera

As much as I like betting with Brandon Vera, I like betting with Jon Jones more. Jon Jones finds ways to win no matter what. He has rarely if ever been in danger. Jones is like GSP, very athletic, and overwhelms other fighters. Vera is not that guy anymore. He used to be.

I’m taking Jon Jones in this one.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga

This fight is going to be awesome. Gonzaga will surely have a ground advantage. However, Santos hands and foot work is too good. I have to go with the beast Junior Dos Santos though.

I’m taking Junior Dos Santos in this one.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Beuntello

Beuntello likes to keep every fight standing, unfortunately for him, Kongo has a long reach and power.

Since the fight is going to be standing, watch Kongo utilize his knees.

I’m picking Cheick Kongo in this one.

Alessio Sakara vs James Irvin

The tale of two punchers. Irvin and Sakara are great punchers, while Irvin packs more power, Sakara packs more technique. I don’t remember exactly, but I think Irvin has been out with an injury.

I’m picking Sakara in this fight.

Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty

Guida via furball.

Elliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko

Elliot Marshall’s standup is better than Matyushenko’s – hands down. However, almost everyone Vladi has fought that has been the case. The difference is Vladimir Matyushenko has the Randy Couture style. Great wrestling, take down after take down, side control pummeling. Marshall will have an active guard, but I expect Vladimir Matyushenko’s game to look better in the judges eye’s and take the decision.

Brendan Schaub vs Chase Gormley

Chase is an up and comer with great wrestling until he walked into a Stefan Struve triangle choke in his last fight. Schaub also recently stumbled when he was KO’d by Roy Nelson. Schaub is better on the feet and his wrestling is more than enough to handle Gormley.

I like Schaub to win this one.

Main Card:
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2-0)  vs. Dan Hardy ( 23-6-0 )
The odds show Georges St Pierre as a huge favorite. Imo, this is a closer fight than most think. Hardy has excellent boxing, great takedown defense, and from what I’ve seen pretty good wrestling.

However, GSP’s wrestling is top notch, probably is faster and overall more technical. He might be the stronger fighter here.

They both carry KO power, but the difference could be the speed and wrestling of GSP.

I think GSP will win, but not worth a bet with GSP favored at -800. In fact its almost worth the bet for Hardy at +500. If you must bet on UFC 111 and want to bet with GSP over Dan Hardy, do it at Bodog.

Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-40)  vs.  Shane Carwin (11-0-0)

Mir will probably own on the ground, and the standup probably is a tilt towards Carwin.

Frank Mir is a slight favorite, definitely warranted. If you remember in the Gonzaga, Carwin fight, Gonzaga, before being KOd really put Carwin in some serious danger. Mir with his improved boxing could equally do the same. However, Mir is not a takedown artist in the cage, couple that with Carwin’s excellent wrestling ability and this fight tells me that its going to be a standup war. Mir must have a serious beard to have not been knocked out by Lesnar, so I will put the odds of him being knocked out by Carwin, slightly lower than I would normallly, but Carwin is a big powerful fighter – no doubt.

I favor the favorite (see what I did there?) in this close match. Frank Mir. +130 for Carwin, -160 for Mir at Sportsbook.com for UFC 111.

Jon Fitch (21-3-0)  vs. Thiago Alves  (16-6-0)
Oh this is going to be good. With the much improved overall game of Thiago Alves, I think Fitch’s grinding style could go down. Thiago has power, strength, speed. Fitch has cardio, wrestling, ridiculous top control.

I think Alves will win this UFC 111 fight and is a slight favorite at Sportsbook.com against Jon Fitch.

Ricardo Almeida (11-3-0)  vs. Matt Brown (11-7-0)
Will Almeida be able to deal with Matt Brown’s striking? I think so. I like Almeida to continue his win streak and win via submission.

Almeida is a favorite at Sportsbook.com I like him to win this fight at UFC 111.

Jake Ellenberger (22-5-0)  vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
I like betting with Ellenberger because he never quits. Saunders on the other hand is so hit or miss. However, Saunders reach and height here could be a massive advantage. Its also a problem, because Ellenberger is great at takedowns.

I’m going with Ben Saunders to win at UFC 111.

Jim Miller (16-2-0)  vs. Mark Bocek (8-2-0)
Better striking, better overall MMA game, Papa Jim’s.

I think Jim Miller wins this one on striking. Both are jiu jitsu aces, but Jim Miller’s speed and striking are better than Bocek. Not sure if Bocek is slightly better at the ground game or not. Miller rarely goes there and concentrates on his boxing.

I don’t know what the odds are, but I like Jim Miller to win at UFC 111.

Nate Diaz (11-5-0)  vs. Rory Markham (16-5-0)
I’m always taking a Diaz brother. Go Nate!

Rousimar Palhares (10-2-0)  vs. Tomasz Drwal (17-2-1)
Palhares is favored, but I like Tomasz Drwal. Palhares should have a TREMENDOUS ground advantage. However, his standup is weak, where Drwal’s is not.

Drwal is an underdog at Sportsbook.com and I like him to win at UFC 111.

Kurt Pellegrino (14-4-0)  vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
I don’t know of Camoes, but Pellegrino has really upped his game. I like Pellegrino in the dark here.

Matt Riddle (3-1-0)  vs. Greg Soto (7-0-0)
No opinion.

Main Card

(WEC Bantamweight Title Bout)

Brian Bowles (8-0-0) vs Dominick Cruz  (14-1-0)
Bowles too much strength on the feet for Dominick Cruz. Cruz is a great don’t get me wrong, Bowles is very strong for his division.

Its more common for these lower weight fights to go to a judges decision, but I think Bowles has enough to finish Cruz.

Miguel Torres (36-2-0) vs. Joseph Benavidez  (11-1-0)
Torres good on his feet and on the ground. I don’t see this fight going anywhere, but to the judges. Benavidez has excellent submission defense, and can handle the boxing just fine. He is not as good as a technical striker as Torres, which may give Torres a slight edge on the feet. However, expect Benavidez to take Torres down, Benavidez to avoid the submission, and potentially take a decision. If the fight doesn’t hit the mat, then Torres should win based on number of strikes. Expect kicks and long jabs from Torres.

Jens Pulver ( 22-12-1)vs Javier Vazques (13-3-0)
Another great fight that has a high chance of going to the judges.
Pulver has trouble against Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelts and Vazques has had trouble against good strikers.

I lean towards Jens Pulver in this fight. I think Jens is a good commentator, hope he fills that role when he is done fighting.

L.C. Davis ( 15-2-0) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (12-3-0)
Fight of the night?

As long as the odds aren’t heavily skewed I like LC Davis in this one. If they get crazy, Taurosevicius.

Karen Darabedyan ( 9-1-0) vs. Bart Palaszewski (32-13-0)
This guy Darabedyan looks like a banger with Judo skills. I always go with that is my background as well. Darabedyan.

Preliminary Card

Diego Nunes (13-1-0) vs. Leonard Garcia (13-5-0)

Scott Jorgensen (8-3-0)  vs. Chad George (11-3-0)

Chad Mendes (5-0-0)  vs. Erik Koch (9-0-0)

Anthony Pettis (7-1-0) vs. Danny Castillo (8-2-0)

Courtney Buck (6-2-0) vs. Fredson Paixao (8-3-0)

Bendy Casimir (19-5-2) vs. Ricardo Lamas (7-1-0)