Author: NewYorkRic

This is it, folks. For all the marbles. It comes down to one final event to determine whether I win or lose the competition. No matter what happens on Saturday night, it was a fun ride and I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. If you’re feeling nostalgic, take a look back at the competition’s debut post and reminisce.

Let’s start, as we always do, with a recap of the previous event. In this case, we’re looking back at UFC on FOX 11.

Bet: Edson Barboza wins by decision (+298)

Wager: 10 units

Result: LOST 10 units

Barboza looked to be the significantly sharper striker in this match-up, as myself and several others predicted. At the same time, his chin looked as suspect as most also predicted (myself not included). I admitted being concerned, but not ultimately scared away. Donald Cerrone was able to drop Barboza with a jab, vindicating many of you who commented on the article. I still like the play in hindsight, but my level of confidence in Barboza’s chin went from shaky to unplayable in the future.

Bet: Jorge Masvidal wins by decision (+110)

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 11 units

There was very little surprise in this match-up. Pat Healy gave it everything he had, but Masvidal’s takedown defense (even while unnecessarily backing himself up against the cage) was simply too good. The striking differential between Masvidal and Healy was a chasm that continued to grow as the fight went on. I liked this play quite a bit coming in.

Bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins by decision (-106)

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 9.43 units

I was confident that Nurmagomedov would be able to control Rafael dos Anjos, but did not expect it to look so easy. Dos Anjos is an elite fighter and he couldn’t make an offensive move in 15 minutes of fighting. Nurmagomedov’s grappling is scary and I could see his betting lines moving into UFC champion territory. His style presents a problem for every opponent. The more interesting question betting-wise is when he’ll get his next finish.

Bet: Yoel Romero (+105)

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 10.5 units

Romero looked incredible. He exchanged well with Brad Tavares on the feet and used his offensive wrestling game as effectively as we’ve seen in the Octagon. I thought this fight was close to a coin flip due to Romero’s tendency to take minutes at a time off, but he ended up bullying Tavares from bell to bell. The public drove Romero’s line up to something like +140 before it closed, so kudos to anybody who got great value near fight time.

UFC on FOX 11 Result: +20.93 units

Total After Nine Events: 225.05 units

I’ve got 225.05 units to play with for UFC 172 and 400 units is the goal. Any all-in bet on a line of -125 or greater earns me the victory, whether it’s a straight bet or a parlay that equates to the magic number. I fully intended to bet on Bobby Green for this card and he was at -120 before being pulled. It’s an unfortunate circumstance, but I’ve simply got to be a little more creative now.

Before I reveal the final play(s) for Ric’s Picks, I thought I’d do something special for the final event. I’m sure you’re sick of me after 10 articles and many months together, so I enlisted the help of Luca Fury to bring another voice (literally) to this thing. Luca runs FurysFightPicks.com, where he also provides his betting picks for every MMA card. He’s somebody whose opinion and knowledge I respect a great deal, so I hope you enjoy this conversation where we break down the entire card for UFC 172.

Without further ado, I present Ric’s Picks for UFC 172.

Bet: Parlay of Jon Jones points handicap -5.5 (-270), Luke Rockhold (-900), and Joseph Benavidez (-425)

Wager: 212.7 units

Potential Winnings: 187.37 units

I was looking at this parlay without the handicap on Jones early on, but it fell just short of my desired goal. Going all-in on Jones (-500), Rockhold (-800), and Benavidez (-380) only yielded 158.72 units, while I needed at least 175 units. The newly released line on Jones with a handicap of -5.5 hits my magic number. I think Jones (-5.5) at -270 is fantastic value and even a good straight bet for the event, so it’s now the deciding piece in this competition.

If you’re unfamiliar with how the handicap works in MMA, Jones must either finish Glover Teixeira inside the distance OR win by at least 6 total points on the judges’ cards. For example, three 50-45 scores would equate to a win by 15 points, while three 49-46 scores would equate to a win by 9 points, etc. The decision does not need to be uniform or even unanimous, but Jones must win by 6 total points across the three judges’ cards for this bet to cash (assuming he has not already finished the fight).

Bet: Parlay of Anthony Johnson wins by TKO/KO (+485), Yancy Medeiros (+190), and Jessamyn Duke (-105)

Wager: 12.35 units

Potential Winnings: 396.71 units

The back-up plan with impossible odds came down to this parlay or betting on a draw in Jones/Teixeira or Rockhold/Boetsch. Why not have some fun?

I urge you not to replicate either of these bets in any capacity. My entire bankroll being on the line increases the foolishness, so never do that. These bets are for the purpose of winning a competition with specific constraints, but if you’re interested in true analysis, listen to the recording above or ask in the comments section below.

I appreciate everybody who participated in this competition along the way, whether we agreed, disagreed, or something in-between. We made it. Thank you.

At Risk: 225.05 units

Potential Profit: 619.05 units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

I’m checking in for the second time this week as we enter the home stretch. Eight events have come and gone, with two left to claim victory. It’s been a fun ride, but it’s not over yet. If you’re just joining us now, visit the competition’s debut post and see where this whole thing started.

It does not feel good to relive your failures while the wounds are still fresh, but let’s see what went wrong at the TUF Nations Finale before getting into UFC on FOX 11.

Bet: Michael Bisping wins by decision (+115)

Wager: 15 units

Result: LOST 15 units

Bisping did not look to be operating at 100%, but Tim Kennedy showed no mercy with a smothering top game, controlling Bisping in ways that even a dominant wrestler like Chael Sonnen could not. Factor in Kennedy’s broken hand (sustained during the fight) and the blowout becomes even more impressive. I figured Bisping would be able to keep Kennedy off the way he has every opponent before him, but Kennedy was relentless.

Bet: Kyle Noke (-120)

Wager: 10 units

Result: LOST 10 units

I thought wrestling would be the difference in this fight, but unfortunately for me, it was Patrick Cote landing unimpeded takedowns. Noke looked helpless defending against Cote’s attack. I was shocked by Bisping getting outgrappled so thoroughly, but much more shocked at how easily Noke was dumped by Cote. I almost passed on Noke, but it definitely wasn’t because I thought he’d be on his back for half of each round. Most of you in the comments of the Ric’s Picks: TUF Nations Finale article were on Cote, so kudos to my sharp readers out there.

Bet: George Roop (-120)

Wager: 5 units

Result: WON 4.17 units

I should have been more confident in Roop, as he made it look easy against Dustin Kimura. He was never in any real danger and controlled the action from start to finish.

TUF Nations Finale Result: – 20.83 units

Total After Eight Events: 204.12 units

Whereas a lot of recent cards have been hard to find value due to heavy favorites, this card is almost loaded with playable lines and close fights. If all goes well, I should be set up nicely for a final push at UFC 172. But first, UFC on FOX 11.

Bet: Edson Barboza wins by decision (+298)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 29.8 units

While I am worried about Barboza being rocked by both Jamie Varner and Danny Castillo, the threat of the takedown set up those exchanges. Against Donald Cerrone, Barboza will have more time to find his range and attack to the body, head, and legs of a very hittable Cerrone. I don’t foresee Cerrone’s chin failing him, so it will most likely be a good back-and-forth with Barboza setting the pace and distance. If it hits the mat, Cerrone’s at an advantage, but Barboza’s takedown defense is rock solid.

Bet: Jorge Masvidal wins by decision (+110)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 11 units

Pat Healy will look to drag Masvidal to the mat and has said as much in interviews recently. I don’t think he can do it very easily, as Masvidal has faced better, more fluid wrestlers and kept it standing. On the feet, Masvidal picks Healy apart. He might drop a round, but I like Masvidal to ride out a decision comfortably.

Bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins by decision (-106)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 9.43 units

I think the line (for straight bets on either fighter) is off here. Rafael dos Anjos is a fast improving, powerful striker and a very high level grappler. Nurmagomedov should be able to wear dos Anjos down with the unrelenting aggression, takedowns, and suplexes he’s become known for, but it will be by far his toughest test to date. On the feet, I give Nurmagomedov a slight edge based on output and unpredictability, but he needs to be careful.

Bet: Yoel Romero (+105)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 10.5 units

Romero tends to have stretches of listlessness (which was evident as he dropped two rounds to Derek Brunson before turning it around in the third), but he compensates for that with superhero power to match his superhero physique. Brad Tavares is definitely the more well rounded, reliable fighter, but he typically earns wins with a grinding style of efficient striking and takedowns. I don’t see him having much success grappling-wise against Romero and on the feet, they’re just about even (discounting the nuclear bomb thump Yoel brings). I could see Tavares scraping by with a decision the way he has recently, but I’m on Romero at plus odds. If Romero debuts his offensive wrestling game (we’ve yet to see him use it), the odds shift even more in his favor.

At Risk: 40 units

Potential Profit: 60.73 units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

I last left you with Ric’s Picks for UFC Fight Night 39 on Friday and you’re already back for more? Okay, I’ll oblige. You may even get two Ric’s Picks articles this week, so stay tuned. As always, check out this competition’s debut post to get a lay of the land if you’re joining us for the first time.

Let’s quickly review UFC Fight Night 39 before we look ahead to the TUF Nations Finale.

Bet: Parlay of Tatsuya Kawajiri (+120) and Ryan LaFlare (-280)

Wager: 15 units

Result: LOST 15 units

Both Clay Guida and John Howard performed better than I expected heading into the event. While I realized Guida’s advantages in terms of speed and pace, I expected Kawajiri to create scrambles (which he did to an extent) and separate long enough to gain an edge. Guida never let up and suffocated Kawajiri for one of his most impressive wins in a while. I predicted this being LaFlare’s toughest test to date and Howard made good on my word. Before the unfortunate low blow, it was anyone’s fight and Howard was the one with momentum. LaFlare performed admirably, showing off his well-rounded arsenal, but Howard was more successful in the grappling game than I thought he’d be. LaFlare got it done, but Kawajiri did not, so this bet was a loser.

Bet: Roy Nelson wins inside the distance (+110)

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 11 units

“I’m fading Nogueira hard because he can barely move these days, and being immobile with a questionable chin is the worst possible counter for what Nelson brings.” – Me, in last week’s article

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira once again looked very slow and very hittable. It was almost uncomfortable to watch after the first few clean shots landed, as the knockout was only a matter of time.

UFC Fight Night 38 Result: – 4 units

Total After Seven Events: 224.95 units

Two consecutive events (UFC Fight Night 38 and UFC Fight Night 39) where I essentially broke even was not what I had hoped/expected and these smaller cards are proving tough to find value. TUF Nations Finale does little to change that, especially considering the prop lines have not been posted for most fights as I write this. Crossing my fingers for some good values later this week (UFC on FOX 11), but let’s not overlook the TUF Nations Finale just yet.

Bet: Michael Bisping wins by decision (+115)

Wager: 15 units

Potential Winnings: 17.25 units

When Bisping is the favorite, he wins. When Bisping is the underdog, he loses. The man is a staple of consistency, beating the guys he’s “supposed to” and losing to that next level of competition. I see Tim Kennedy as a game opponent, but one that Bisping should be able to beat by showing up and performing to his regularly shown capabilities. Expect Bisping to outwork Kennedy with technical boxing, tight clinch work, and mixed-in takedown threats. Kennedy has shown he can go five rounds, so it won’t be a blowout by any means, and Bisping’s eye injury (including the lay-off) is certainly a concern, but I’m counting on the Count.

Bet: Kyle Noke (-120)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 8.33 units

Patrick Cote is coming off a questionable decision win over Bobby Voelker and a DQ win over Alessio Sakara. Neither performance was very impressive. While Noke isn’t setting the world on fire, Cote’s latest UFC run has not inspired confidence. Cote will have a slight advantage on the feet, but Noke has been aggressive in hunting for takedowns and if it hits the mat, a submission is in play. With superior grappling, decent striking, and realistic submission threats, I see Noke getting a late finish or a decision win.

Bet: George Roop (-120)

Wager: 5 units

Potential Winnings: 4.17 units

George Roop keeps his chin high and has been touched there before; that’s my one concern in this match-up. In terms of physical attributes, wrestling, striking, and being able to combine all those elements, Roop has clear advantages over Dustin Kimura. Kimura is a finisher and a submission threat, but I think he’s more likely to land a big shot than snatch up an arm or neck. I’m predicting that Roop can stay out of trouble and put Kimura in real danger, a place he’s been in all of his UFC fights thus far. Not supremely confident, but Roop has earned me some nice profits in the past.

I was eyeing Sam Stout for a bet over K.J. Noons, but the news of their unexpected mutual decision to fight at welterweight rather than lightweight causes concern due to the situation’s many unknowns. Have to pass for now.

At Risk: 30 units

Potential Profit: 29.75 units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

Long time no see, folks. The previous edition of Ric’s Picks dropped almost three weeks ago, but have no fear; I back. Trust me, I back.

The final four events in this challenge take place over roughly a two week span, so the finish line is fast approaching. It should be exciting and there’s no better time than now to follow along if you haven’t been already. Check out the debut post and join us.

UFC Fight Night 38 was a strange one all the way around. Let’s dive back into the madness of a few weeks ago and then swim to the other side for UFC Fight Night 39.

Bet: Parlay of Diego Brandao (-285) and Norman Parke (-245)

Wager: 15 units

Result: PUSH

I jumped on this parlay early and got a very good price. My thinking going in: Brandao is a stylistic nightmare for Will Chope and Parke is too well rounded to fall into the traps set by Leonardo Santos.

Hours before the event, Will Chope is removed from the card and subsequently released. This caused my original parlay to become a straight bet on Parke. At this point, I was expecting a marginal gain.

Then the draw happened. Santos was doing much better than expected against Parke, but a point deduction for grabbing the shorts produced no action betting-wise and Ric’s Picks’ first push. A very odd way to break even.

Bet: Parlay of Gian Villante (-110) and Norman Parke wins by decision (+100)

Wager: 10 units

Result: LOST 10 units

Both legs of this parlay got busted. Villante gassed after a dominant first round against Fabio Maldonado and Parke earned a draw rather than a decision win. I knew about Villante’s cardio issues going in, but figured he’d be able to use a heavy top game to rest and control the fight. He used the heavy top game early, but somehow gassed out in the process. It was a bad performance and a bad bet.

Bet: CB Dollaway (+188)

Wager: 5 units

Result: WON 9.4 units

Early knockout wasn’t exactly my prediction, but I did see it as a possibility and almost laid units on Dollaway wins by TKO and Dollaway wins by submission (each near +700 at the time). I was pleasantly surprised when I didn’t have to sweat out a decision, as Dollaway put Cezar Ferreira away quickly.

Bet: Ronny Markes wins inside the distance (+110)

Wager: 5 units

Result: LOST 5 units

Markes missed weight by a ridiculous amount and got smoked. Disaster.

UFC Fight Night 38 Result: -5.6 units

Total After Five Events: 228.95 units

On a card that featured wins by nine underdogs, one favorite, and a draw, I was very happy to escape relatively unscathed. It was a wild night for anybody eyeing upsets, but I wasn’t sold on many going in. My convictions were with a few favorites who ended up being removed from the card (Brandao), badly missing weight (Markes), gassing out from top control (Villante), and losing a point without warning for grabbing shorts, en route to a draw (Parke). Dollaway saved the day, but it could have been a lot worse.

I was glad to forget about that one for a while, so let’s bury UFC Fight Night 38 again and look ahead to UFC Fight Night 39.

Bet: Parlay of Tatsuya Kawajiri (+120) and Ryan LaFlare (-280)

Wager: 15 units

Potential Winnings: 29.79 units

Kawajiri opened as a -155 favorite, but climbed as high as +125 at one point. I’m not seeing the reason. Clay Guida is facing a better wrestler and that typically spells doom for him. It’s evident simply by looking at the names on his record, but Michael Carroll of Fightmetric provided a stat that really drives the point home: Guida is 2-6 in UFC competition when he gives up a takedown and 8-2 when he doesn’t. While Guida will have the speed advantage, Kawajiri showed an aggressiveness in his UFC debut that makes me believe he can get this fight to the ground and control Guida. On the feet, Guida might be able to use his endless gas tank to execute a gameplan focused on outworking Kawajiri, but I could see defensive lapses leading to some power shots that send Guida reeling.

John Howard will be LaFlare’s toughest test to date. Howard has solid boxing/muay thai and good power, but LaFlare will more likely have to fend off clinches and takedowns from Howard’s grappling game that somehow still catches people off guard — he’s never been one to stand and bang exclusively, preferring to mix punches, kicks, and takedowns in combination. LaFlare is as well rounded as they come, showing off improved striking (including shockingly high offensive output) against Court McGee and an always impressive wrestling game. I can’t see this being his first finish in the UFC, as Howard is very difficult to put away, but the longer and stronger LaFlare will get it done.

Bet: Roy Nelson wins inside the distance (+110)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 11 units

Theoretically, Nelson has five rounds to land a clean shot (that same clean shot he’s landed a dozen times before) on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s chin. In actuality, it’s more like two or three rounds. If Nelson can’t take him out early, I fully expect Nogueira to pick up the pace as Nelson fades in the Abu Dhabi heat. I’m fading Nogueira hard because he can barely move these days, and being immobile with a questionable chin is the worst possible counter for what Nelson brings. I’m predicting the knockout that most others are also forecasting, but I could easily see Nelson losing steam and a decision.

That’s it. Another lean week of wagering, as I really only liked the early lines on Kawajiri and LaFlare.

At Risk: 25 units

Potential Profit: 40.79 units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

It’s officially the halfway mark for this iteration of Ric’s Picks, with five events behind us and five to go. If you’re just checking in for the first time, head over to our debut post and get caught up.

UFC 171 was a great night for Ric’s Picks. Here’s the recap:

Bet: Tyron Woodley (+165)

Wager: 30 units

Result: WON 49.5 units

I was all over this fight when it was first announced. I wasn’t sure that Tyron Woodley would dominate Carlos Condit, but I was sure that he could and would be able to win the first two rounds if he played to his strengths. For one-and-a-half rounds, Woodley executed his gameplan just as I had hoped.

Bet: Parlay of Hector Lombard (-200) and Myles Jury (-175)

Wager: 25 units

Result: WON 33.93 units

Hector Lombard and Myles Jury were both able to neutralize their respective opponents and cruise to relatively easily decisions. I felt very confident with these picks going in and the results matched expectations.

Bet: Myles Jury wins by decision (+140)

Wager: 10 units

Result: WON 14 units

Myles Jury’s gameplan against Diego Sanchez had to be controlled and calculated. At the highest level, he hasn’t shown to be a finisher, but rather a smothering mixed martial artist with a good fight IQ. Winning a decision (after already picking Jury to win outright) was the most likely outcome.

Bet: Tyron Woodley wins by TKO/KO (+900)

Wager: 5 units

Result: WON 45 units

I was not expecting this bet to cash. As mentioned earlier, I predicted Woodley to win two or three rounds and take a decision. That said, I was intrigued by the possibility of Woodley landing a huge shot (which he did multiple times, but Condit’s chin is made of adamantium) or pounding Condit out while in top control.

Neither of these happened, but Condit’s leg was injured during a takedown leading to the stoppage. Betting-wise, it was very fortunate and allowed me to profit on a longshot.

UFC 171 Result: +142.43 units

Total After Five Events: 234.55 units

After not really being able to gain much traction before UFC 171, my bets for this event came through in a huge way, going perfect for the night and setting myself up nicely for the second half of the competition. I badly needed an event like this, where I had strong feelings on established fighters, and the payoff was better than I could’ve hoped.

I’m not as thrilled with the lines for UFC Fight Night 38, but there are some spots where I feel value can be extracted. Let’s dive in.

Bet: Parlay of Diego Brandao (-285) and Norman Parke (-245)

Wager: 15 units

Potential Winnings: 13.53 units

Diego Brandao should be able to replicate what Max Holloway did in his fight against Will Chope, getting inside the long reach and landing big shots to put this big man down. Brandao isn’t as technically sound as Holloway or as patient, but what he lacks in accuracy and precision, he makes up for in sheer aggression and power. He’s a finisher and if the fight hits the ground, he can end it there too.

Norman Parke isn’t going to devastate his opponents, but he’s typically better than them in every facet of the game (at least with the guys he’s been matched up against so far) and has been able to mix those elements together with relative ease. In Leonardo Santos, Parke is facing a highly talented jiu-jitsu player, but that’s where the accolades end. Parke will be able to dictate where the fight goes, keeping it standing if he’s comfortable, but also staying tight inside Santos’ guard if he takes it to the mat. Santos will need a hail mary submission to win this one against the much younger Parke.

Bet: Parlay of Gian Villante (-110) and Norman Parke wins by decision (+100)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 28.18 units

If Gian Villante can keep a consistent pace for three rounds, he beats Fabio Maldonado without much trouble. Easier said than done, as Villante has typically emptied the tank early, I think he will look much better than he did against Cody Donovan. He knocked Donovan out, but not before making it a much closer affair than it should have been.

Maldonado is overrated as a boxer. His striking defense is dreadful, but a granite chin and uncanny ability to absorb damage keeps him in every fight. If Villante can keep from tiring out (from landing a continuous stream of punches to Maldonado’s face) and mix in takedowns, it’s his fight to lose.

As mentioned above, Parke is most likely going to win and that win is most likely going to be a decision.

Bet: CB Dollaway (+188)

Wager: 5 units

Potential Winnings: 9.4 units

Cezar Ferreira is considered a rising fighter (on the older side of “prospect”) in the middleweight division, while CB Dollaway is already a known commodity. I think that’s partially why Dollaway is being overlooked in the fight, as he definitely has the offensive tools to defeat Ferreira (and a lot of other middleweights for that matter). He’s a competent striker with decent, but unremarkable power and a good wrestler who aggressively chases submissions. All that said, he’s shown a propensity to lapse defensively, leading to the wrong end of a few finishes. Ferreira will almost assuredly want to keep this fight upright, so Dollaway needs to avoid any big shots and take it to the mat to keep Ferreira off balance. I think Dollaway can come away with a decision here.

I initially had a 5 unit bet here on Ronny Markes winning inside the distance. He hasn’t been much of a finisher in the UFC, using his suffocating top game to control opponents, but I thought this was his best opportunity yet to break the streak of decisions. Thiago Santos was submitted in under a minute by Cezar Ferreira, so I thought Markes would take it to the ground early and throw heavy hands or lock up a limb.

After missing weight by 5 pounds, I pulled that one back. He’ll likely still be able to win at least a decision, but I’m staying far away.

UPDATE: Hat tip to SuperSartre in the comments below, who rightfully corrected me in regard to removing the bet on Markes. In the past, I’ve held off on bets in the chance that certain fighters would miss weight and then simply not place them if it that fear was confirmed. In this case, I had no concerns about Markes and had already locked in the bet. Removing it was a brainfart on my part due to muscle memory. The following bet stands:

Bet: Ronny Markes wins inside the distance (+110)

Wager: 5 units

Potential Winnings: 5.5 units

The below total is now updated to reflect the re-addition of that bet.

At Risk: 35 units

Potential Profit: 56.61 units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.

We’re five weeks into the challenge, so you should know the drill by now. If not, check out Ric’s Picks’ debut post and get caught up.

UFC Fight Night 37 was a strange one, so let’s talk about that card first and then move on to UFC 171.

Bet: Davey Grant (-115)

Wager: 20 units

Result: N/A

Davey Grant was one of my most confident picks on the card, but his bout with Roland Delorme was scrapped after Grant disclosed a knee injury. I’m just glad Grant didn’t fight injured, put on a stinker, and lose me some units. Hoping for a speedy recovery.

Bet: Parlay of Luke Barnatt (-290) and Cyrille Diabate (-110)

Wager: 15 units

Result: LOST 15 units

Luke Barnatt came in and took care of business as I knew he would, but Cyrille Diabate got dismantled. The red flags I mentioned in my breakdown (especially the looming retirement) are still taunting me. It was a very silly bet.

UFC Fight Night 37 Result: -15 units

Total After Four Events: 92.12 units

I’ve finally dipped below the original 100 units and it’s fitting that UFC Fight Night 37 was the card to do it. The first few events to start this challenge have been difficult for me to get a read on and sparse on favorable lines, but that all changes with UFC 171. Here we go.

Bet: Tyron Woodley (+165)

Wager: 30 units

Potential Winnings: 49.5 units

It goes without saying that I really like Tyron Woodley in his match-up with Carlos Condit. The effective gameplan against Condit is no secret; he’s an aggressive striker, with diverse attacks, a non-stop motor, and some of the worst takedown defense I’ve ever seen. Woodley will be able to get deep on takedowns and bring Condit to the mat at will. Condit has proven to be dangerous from his back, but at the first sign of danger, Woodley can back off, reset, and take Condit right back down if he needs to. Having that knowledge is powerful, and I could even see Woodley being competitive on the feet since the wrestling is in his back pocket should things go south.

Bet: Parlay of Hector Lombard (-200) and Myles Jury (-175)

Wager: 25 units

Potential Winnings: 33.93 units

Hector Lombard and Myles Jury have favorable skill sets to their respective opponents on paper. That said, they will both need to overcome two things to win: relentless pace and the judges.

Jake Shields breaks opponents by stifling their offense with continuous takedown attempts and clinchwork against the cage. He will stick to that gameplan no matter how many times he’s stuffed. It’s truly remarkable. If Lombard succumbs to the pressure and gets tentative, he will lose a decision to Shields. I don’t see that happening though. At 170, Lombard does not suffer from the size disadvantage that plagued him at 185. His takedown defense is incredible and if he brings the same aggression shown against Nate Marquardt, it’s not hard to imagine the notoriously tough-chinned Shields being put to sleep. Lombard doesn’t need a knockout to win (as long as he can stay upright and off the cage), but Shields has a knack for winning decisions.

Diego Sanchez probably should have dropped decisions to Martin Kampmann and Takanori Gomi, but like Shields, he has an uncanny ability to sway the judges by staying busy. It’s fun to watch, but in terms of competitive excellence, he has not looked good in quite some time. Myles Jury is well rounded and has shut down better wrestlers than the current iteration of Sanchez. Outside of intangibles (like heart, determination, and other cliches that normally make you roll your eyes, but when applied to Sanchez just elicit a smile and agreeing nod), Jury should be better in all facets of the game.

Bet: Myles Jury wins by decision (+140)

Wager: 10 units

Potential Winnings: 14 units

I’ve got quite a bit on Jury’s shoulders for this card. *fingers crossed*

Bet: Tyron Woodley wins by TKO/KO (+900)

Wager: 5 units

Potential Winnings: 45 units

I don’t think this outcome is very likely, but I’ll take a flyer on Woodley’s power at 9:1 at this stage in the challenge (especially with ground and pound in play).

I thought about a wager on Robbie Lawler as well, because the line is off in my opinion, but ultimately I like Johny Hendricks to mix power shots and takedowns en route to victory — could be a stoppage or a decision depending on his gameplan. No dice.

At Risk: 70 units

Potential Profit: 142.43 Units

DISCLAIMER: I do not recommend betting units that resemble the amounts wagered in this competition. Due to its nature, I am attempting to profit at an advanced rate and risking significantly more than is advisable for proper bankroll management. Please evaluate the breakdowns provided and adjust accordingly.