Author: Pat

UFC Lightweight bout:  Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

Odds:  (+180 Diaz /-230 Miller )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, two of the Lightweight division’s most prolific submission grapplers will do battle as Nate Diaz takes on Jim Miller.  Both of these guys have world class ground games and outstanding jiu-jitsu technique, so this should be a very competitive fight.  Miller is easily the more physical and technical of the two, but Diaz’s unorthodox style and effective striking make him one of thetoughest nuts to crack at 155 pounds.  Dana White recently went on record saying that a win for Diaz would mean a shot at Frankie Edgar’s UFC Lightweight Title, and Miller is hovering around the upper reaches of the division as well, so there is a lot on the line here for both men.  Will Miller’s workmanlike approach and sterling technique be enough to thwart Diaz’s aggressive, unorthodox style, or will Diaz’s craftiness and vastly underrated striking game confound Miller?  It remains to be seen, but either way this should be a very competitive and entertaining main event.

Jim Miller is, without a doubt, one of the hardest-working and most effective Lightweights in the UFC today.  He has fought a consistently high level of competition for years, and his only three losses are to current UFC Lightweight champion Ben Henderson, top contender Gray “The Bully” Maynard, and former UFC champion Frankie Edgar.  Miller is renowned for his work ethic and his grinding fight style.  His cardio conditioning is top notch, his wrestling is excellent, and he has extremely good submissions from every position.  His boxing is also pretty solid, but not overly powerful and a little bit textbook. There is no question that his best attribute is his ability to force fights to the ground, control the action from top position, and soften opponents up while setting up submissions.  Of course, Diaz is a terror off his back, so Miller is going to have to be very careful if he tries to work that kind of game plan.  One of the things that make Miller so dangerous is that he is such a prolific finisher, but has never once been finished himself.  He is extremely good at keeping himself in fights and giving himself a chance to find openings that he can exploit by outlasting his opponents with his amazing conditioning and endurance.  Against Diaz, who he will enjoy a strength and bulk advantage against, that could be a huge factor, because it will be much easier for him to wear Diaz down than it will be for Diaz to wear him down.

Nate Diaz has had a very interesting UFC career so far.  After being blatantly robbed of a clear win against Gray Maynard, he made an ill-advised move up to Welterweight, where he actually enjoyed a reasonable amount of success before dropping two straight fights, one in another very controversial decision.  Since moving back to his more natural weight, though, he has looked extremely impressive in destroying PRIDE legend Takanori Gomi and surging contender Donald Cerrone in back to back fights.  Diaz is, without a doubt, one of the best submission grapplers in UFC’s stacked Lightweight division, and like his brother Nick, also brings vastly underrated and unorthodox striking to the octagon.  There is no question that Diaz is a more effective striker than Miller, and if he can keep this fight standing he will be in a great position to outbox Miller with relative ease. One thing Diaz is going to need to look out for is Miller’s wrestling. Diaz is phenomenal with submissions off his back, but Miller is a much better wrestler and his jiu-jitsu is also world class, which is going to make him really difficult to submit if he can control top position.  One thing Diaz does have going for him, that a lot of people tend to overlook, is his spectacular throws and trips from the clinch.  Miller is stronger and a much better pure wrestler, but if Diaz can work his boxing from the outside and set up clinches, he could easily win both the striking exchanges and the takedown battle as well.  He just has to fight smart and not get too aggressive, allowing Miller to surprise him with those short double legs.

This is a really difficult fight to call.  On the feet, I think the clear edge goes to Diaz, who has much more powerful striking and can throw effective punches from a variety of unorthodox angles.  Miller is the better-conditioned of the two, and also clearly the more effective wrestler.  On the ground, I think both guys are so accomplished that it will be difficult for either to catch the other, so whoever can control position and score points will probably come out on top.  The question is whether Miller can box effectively enough with Diaz to set up his takedowns and get those dominant positions, or whether Diaz will score points on the feet and use the clinch to keep Miller from working his game plan.  In the end, I think the edge has to go to Diaz.  His boxing is going to give Miller looks he has never had to deal with before, and although Miller is the better wrestler, Diaz’s outstanding clinch game and resilience off his back will make it hard for Miller to really mount much in the way of significant offense.  This is going to be a close, hard-fought fight, but I see Diaz taking the narrow decision victory.

Prediction:  Nate Diaz by Split Decision.

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