Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight Title bout:  Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans

Odds:  (-450 Jones /+325 Evans )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event of the evening, UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will defend his title against former champion “Suga” Rashad Evans. These two are former friends and training partners, but their relationship has soured and now there is legitimate bad blood between them. Their personal animosity towards each other, coupled with the fact that they are two of the most dynamic and athletic fighters in the Light Heavyweight division, is going to make this a fight to remember. Jones has looked utterly dominant in rising to the top of the division, with his only loss being a disqualification against Matt Hamill in a fight he dominated. Every times Jones has been forced to step up in competition, he has not only handled it well, he has made his opponents look amateurish for the most part. If anyone can solve Jones’ puzzle, though, it is Evans, who knows what he is capable of, has stunning knockout power, and has proven adept at using his wrestling and quickness to neutralize larger, stronger opponents.

Rashad Evans, a former UFC Light Heavyweight titlist, has had one of the most successful UFC careers in recent memory. Only once has he been defeated as a professional, when Lyoto Machida knocked him out to capture his title belt. Evans has been in line for another title shot for well over a year now, but injuries and poor timing have kept him from getting it until now. What makes Rashad so dangerous are his speed, his footwork, his punching power, and his wrestling. He is not the best boxer in the world from a technical standpoint, but his ability to move laterally and keep his opponent guessing while setting up fight-ending haymakers makes him very dangerous to strike against. His best attribute, though, is his wrestling. He has great double-legs and very effective top control when fights go to the ground. Just as importantly, he is good at getting inside against bigger guys and pushing them into the cage to control them. A great example is his fight against Rampage, where Rashad continually punished Jackson up against the fence despite a significant strength and size disadvantage. If Rashad can frustrate Jones, who is used to imposing his will on his opponents in no uncertain terms, and tire him out while trying to set up big power punches, he could be in a great position to regain his title.

Jon Jones experienced what is, without a doubt, the most meteoric rise in Mixed Martial Arts history. Riding an essentially undefeated record all the way to the UFC Light Heavyweight Title, Jones has continually stepped up in competition and, without fail, destroyed his opponents with seeming ease. A huge part of what makes Jones so effective is his reach. No one in the division can even hope to match it, and in striking exchanges he can punish his opponents without any real fear of being hit back. His boxing is still a work in progress, technically, but he throws really hard punches from really far away, and that is hard to deal with. His wrestling is also spectacular, although not as technical as Rashad’s, but he makes up for it in speed, explosiveness, and raw physical power. Scariest of all, he has the ability to destroy guys with ground and pound or submit them if fights go to the ground. So far, Jones has not showed any real weaknesses whatsoever, except in terms of his technical boxing. Evans is not the kind of opponent to make him pay for that, but if his defense is poor Evans can definitely make him pay with huge power punches. Jones is going to enter this fight with a lot of physical advantages, and if he chooses to use them wisely and gameplan around them rather than simply depending on them, he will probably leave withhis belt.

Jon Jones is the champion for a reason. He is a peerless athlete as far as UFC fighters go, he has unique physical advantages over the rest of the division, and he is very dangerous in every range of fighting. That said, the odds on this fight are completely ridiculous. I don’t care how dominant Jones has looked, there is not a valid reason ever to bet on a fighter at -550 against a former UFC champion with one loss. The likelihood is clearly that Jones will be able to win this fight one way or the other, but at -550 that is absurd for betting purposes. Rashad, on the other hand, is a really attractive option here at +400. This is a guy who lost one fight ever, to a very tough opponent, and has world class wrestling and fight ending power. On top of that, he is fighting his former training partner, and while Jones is surely a different fighter nowthan he was then, Rashad is at least going to be familiar with his physical capabilities, his tendencies, and his preferences. This might be the only chance you ever get to bet on someone as good as Rashad Evans at +400, and it seems pointless not to take it. Jones will probably win this one on the judges’ cards, but Evans at +400 is a must-bet in my opinion.

Prediction:  Jon Jones by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Featherweight Bout:  Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin

Odds: (-550 Hominick / +375 Yagin )

Betting Pick: Hominick in a parlay

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In a very important bout for their respective careers, Mark “The Machine” Hominick will look to halt a two-fight losing streak against journeyman Eddie “The Filipino Phenom” Yagin. Yagin has a very solid 15-5 professional record, but he has fought a much, much lower level of competition than Hominick and this fight represents a huge step up for him. Hominick is currently on a disappointing two-fight skid, but the level of competition he has faced far outstrips Yagin’s and he is a much more complete fighter. Neither of these guys can afford to lose, being three fight losing streaks or dropping your first two UFC fights are not a good way to maintain employment.

Eddie Yagin has a nice 15-5 record as a professional, but his resume is full of smaller shows and low-level opponents. He has faced a few top fighters, including Rich Clementi and Vitor Ribeiro, but both of those guys beat him easily. Yagin is definitely well-rounded, and can hold his own standing and on the ground, but it’s hard to imagine his performance holding up any better against Hominick than it did against Rich Clementi. Yagin is a skilled fighter, but he might be in over his head at this level of competition.

Mark Hominick is a very versatile and effective veteran. While his 20-10 professional record may not look like much on paper, he has fought a very high level of competition and has hardly ever lost a fight that wasn’t against a world-class opponent. He can finish fights with strikes or submissions in equal measure. One thing he needs to be careful about is getting careless on the ground against Yagin. Hominick’s submission defense is notoriously poor, and Yagin does have pretty effective jiu-jitsu. I think Hominick has a lot of advantages in this fight, and if he can avoid getting careless and giving something away, he will be in a good position to win.

This is a very one-sided fight in my opinion. Hominick is a very exciting and dangerous Featherweight with two straight losses under his back, and Yagin is a perfect opponent to make it a good fight and get Hominick back in the win column. Yagin is a well-rounded guy with a lot of fights to his credit, so he will not be a total walkover, but Hominick is more effective in every area and has fought at a much higher level for years. I expect Hominick to control the action easily for a unanimous decision win. From a betting standpoint, avoid this one like the plague. Hominick is very nearly a sure thing, but considering the insanely one-sided line on this fight, there’s no reason to ever bet it. As for Yagin, even as a huge underdog, I don’t think he is a good bet either.

Prediction: Mark Hominick by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Brendan Scahub vs. Ben Rothwell

Odds: (-300 Schaub /+230 Rothwell )

Betting Pick: Schaub

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, former IFL Heavyweight champion “Big” Ben Rothwell will square off against recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Brendan Schaub. Rothwell’s UFC tenure has been disappointing so far, marked by some upset losses and some ugly performances, and Schaub is coming off a shocking knockout loss at the hands of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The Heavyweight division is UFC’s biggest selling point and Heavyweight stardom can make a guy’s career, so a win in this fight is hugely important for both guys. If they want to remain relevant in a top-heavy division, multiple losses in a row just isn’t an option. Rothwell has been around the block and has a versatile skill set and a lot of experience, but Schaub is a physically dominant athlete with dynamite in his hands, so Rothwell is going to need to show some of his old form if he wants to remain relevant in the UFC.

Ben Rothwell is a tough, experienced veteran with a well-rounded skill set. He has double-digit wins by both knockout and submission, so clearly he is capable of winning fights wherever they might play out. After utterly dominating the IFL’s Heavyweight division, though, Rothwell has had a string of uninspiring performances, dropping three out of his last five fights. Every top Heavyweight Rothwell has fought recently has had their way with him. Rothwell is actually a solid wrestler, but Schaub is so much stronger than him physically that I see Rothwell trying to use his experience to box with Schaub. If Schaub has a weakness it is that his chin is suspect, and Rothwell has the savvy and the punching power to take advantage of that. If he wants to avoid another loss and maybe a ticket out of the UFC, he needs to be aggressive in attacking Schaub’s chin and not let him get set and find his groove offensively.

Brendan Schaub is one of the most exciting and athletic young Heavyweights in the UFC. He was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter before being knocked out by Roy “Big Country” Nelson, but he followed his performance up with four big wins in a row, three of them coming by T/KO. Schaub is physically dominant, with a lot of speed, explosiveness, and especially punching power. Every punch he throws has fight-ending potential and he can let his hands go at alarming speed. The only things holding Schaub back are that he is prone to letting himself get punched and that his chin is weak. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a great technical boxer, but he has never been known for having much in the way of knockout power, and he flattened Schaub with strikes in their fight. Schaub has killer potential and his punches are going to be hard for anyone to take, but if he ever wants a serious future in the UFC he is going to have to find a way to fight more defensively and only use his explosiveness when it doesn’t leave him wide open to having his glass jaw exploited.

This should be a very competitive match. Rothwell is the more experienced and accomplished of the two, but I don’t think he has an answer for Schaub’s speed and explosive punching power. I think Schaub will beat Rothwell to the punch consistently, use his physical advantages to tire Rothwell out, and eventually pounce in for the kill. Schaub by T/KO.

Prediction: Brendan Schaub by second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.