Author: Pat

UFC Middleweight bout:  Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara

Odds:  (-400 Stann /+300 Sakara )

Betting Pick:  Stann

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In the semi-main event, two heavy-handed strikers will do battle in the Middleweight division as former WEC champ Brian “All-American” Stann meets Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara. Both of these guys have a lot of experience and dangerous amounts of punching power, so this is a fight that promises some fireworks. With both men coming off disappointing losses in a very competitive 185 pound division, a win here is extremely important for both if they want to reassert themselves as legitimate contenders. These guys both like to stand and trade shots, and both of them have fight-ending power, so this onecould come down to who lands a big shot first.

Brian “All-American” Stann is a former WEC Light Heavyweight champion with very dangerous striking and a decent all-around game. An active-duty Marine who trains with Greg Jackson’s team in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Stann is an extremely tough guy who has continued to grow as a Mixed Martial Artist. Since moving to UFC after WEC closed its higher weight classes, Stann has put together an impressive 5-3 record, with quality wins over Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago under his belt. Stann has some ground game, but he doesn’t tend to use his wrestling offensively. He is definitely the kind of fighter who prefers to stand toe to toe and let his hands go, and in Sakara he has an opponent who will be more than willing to oblige him.

Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara is a long-time UFC veteran with very formidable striking of his own. His UFC tenure has been marked by inconsistent performances which have kept him from breaking into the upper reaches of the division, but he is still a very dangerous fighter, especially with his punching. No one who has seen Sakara fight doubts that he has the punching power to make Stann pay for any mistakes he might make, but the big question mark is how well his chin, which is somewhat spotty, will hold up against Stann’s power punching.

This promises to be a very exciting Middleweight bout. Both guys have fight-ending power and are more than willing to trade big shots, but I think the edge has to go to Stann because he is the better wrestler and has a stronger chin. Sakara’s chin is much easier to exploit, and in an even striking exchange I think Sakara will be in more danger. Stann also has the ability to ground the fight if he finds himself in trouble, a luxury Sakara will probably not enjoy. In the end, I expect this fight to play out primarily on the feet, and eventually I think Stann will start landing the bigger shots and exploit Sakara’s weak chin. Stann by T/KO.

Prediction:  Brian Stann by second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva

Odds: (-230 Gustafsson /+180 Silva )

Betting pick: Gustafsson

Bet on this fight at Bovada.com

In the main event of the evening, American Top Team’s Thiago Silva returns to action following a layoff of over a year. Standing in his way is skilled Swedish veteran Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson. Both of these guys have fight-ending potential with their striking, but Gustafsson has a very accomplished ground game as well, so Silva is going to have to be careful to avoid takedowns or to control top position if this fight does go to the mat. Gustafson is riding a four fight win streak, so a signature win here could go a long way toward establishing him as a player in the title scene. Silva, for his part, badly needs a win to reassert himself near the top of the division after a fairly extended period of inactivity. Both of these guys have versatile, dangerous skill sets and a lot to fight for, so this has the makings of a very competitive main event.

Thiago Silva is, without question, one of the more formidable strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. Despite his dangerous striking prowess, though, Silva has not actually won a fight since August of 2009. He has fought only twice since then, suffering a defeat at the hands of Rashad Evans and having a unanimous decision win against Brandon Vera overturned after falsifying a urine sample for a post-fight drug test. It remains to be seen how much the layoff will impact Silva’s effectiveness, but the combination of 2 fights in 2 ½ years and presumably being off performance enhancers make it unlikely that he will be in top form. Still, anyone who is willing to stand and let Silva throw punches at them is inviting trouble, and Silva has very effective takedown defense, so if Gustafsson takes him lightly he could easily find his winning streak snapped.

Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson is a tall, dangerous Light Heavyweight with a versatile skill set. He has scary punching power that can end fights and extremely effective submissions from a variety of positions. Gustafsson has only been defeated once as a professional, when Phil Davis physically dominated him before submitting him with an Anaconda Choke. It is unlikely that Silva will be able to recreate that game plan, but there is also no question that Silva is the most dangerous and experienced fighter Gustafsson has ever faced. Gustafsson is a great striker in his own right, but I don’t think it would be wise for him to engage in a kickboxing match with Silva. Gustafsson’s strength in this fight is his superior versatility, which will allow him to score some points on the feet and with takedowns and positional control. If he can press his advantage he will be in great shape to make it five in a row.

This is going to be a very competitive matchup. Both guys can get the job done in the striking exchanges, but I think the technique edge on the feet has to go to Silva. There is no question that Gustafsson is the more versatile of the two, and should be able to control the fight if he can force it to the ground, but Silva is difficult to take down and could easily punish Gustafsson for failing to secure takedowns. In the end, though, I think Gustafsson has the slight edge overall because of his ability to score points anywhere the fight goes. Silva will land some shots, but so will Gustafsson, and I think Gustafsson will be able to take Silva down a time or two and score enough points on the ground to earn the unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovada.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.