Author: Pat

Event:  Strikeforce – Heavy Artillery – Overeem vs. Rogers

Date:  Saturday, May 15, 2010

Venue:  Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri

Broadcast: Showtime

Main Event:

• Alistair Overeem (32-11-1) vs. Brett Rogers (10-1)
• Andrei Arlovski (15-7) vs. Antonio Silva (13-2)
• Roger Gracie (2-0) vs. Kevin Randleman (17-14)

Fight Card Not Yet Official

 

Kenny Florian vs  Takanori Gomi

Main Event Odds:  (-260 Florian /+200 Gomi)

In the main event, top contender Kenny “KenFlo” Florian will look to spoil the UFC debut of legendary former PRIDE FC Lightweight Champion Takanori Gomi.  Florian has cemented himself as one of the top fighters in UFC’s stacked 155 pound division, with his only losses coming to former champion Sean Sherk and current champion BJ Penn.  Gomi, who looked like an unstoppable monster in his PRIDE heyday, has looked more human since then, but is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the world at his weight, so this is a big fight for the future of the Lightweight title picture, especially if the rumors of BJ Penn’s permanent move to Welterweight come to fruition.

Gomi, once universally regarded as the top Lightweight on Earth, earned his reputation with a mix of good wrestling, good submission defense, and unorthodox but highly effective boxing with a surplus of punching power.  His well-rounded skill set coupled with his aggressive approach made him a truly formidable opponent in his peak.  He has slowed down some as his career has worn on, but he still has great boxing and punching power, and his boxing style is still very difficult for opponents to figure out.  Florian is probably the better-rounded fighter of the two at this point, but Gomi is definitely the more powerful and explosive striker, so he has more than a small chance of taking this one.

Kenny Florian is undeniably one of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport, at any weight.  A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Florian has always been a top-notch grappler, but his Muay Thai striking has improved every single time he has fought in the UFC, so that now he is just as dangerous standing as he is on the ground.  In his last fight, he shocked a lot of pundits by easily outwrestling skilled wrestler Clay Guida in an extremely one-sided fight.  He can strike with strikers, grappler with grapplers, and wrestle with wrestlers, but what makes him so dangerous is how well he can transition from one part of his game to the other, as he showed against Clay Guida by stopping takedowns, counterpunching, and pouncing for the rear naked choke.

As good as Gomi still is, I think Florian is just too well-rounded for him to handle.  Gomi can wrestle, but if Clay Guida couldn’t get Florian down, neither will Gomi.  Gomi’s best chance is the puncher’s chance, but Florian is really good at using the cage to neutralize opponents and can fight in any position.  Gomi will get his shots in, for sure, but I expect Florian to control most of the action and pull of the decision win in a highly competitive fight.

Prediction:  Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Roy Nelson vs  Stefan Struve

Odds:  (-325 Nelson / +225 Struve ) at Sportsbook.com

In the co-main event, recent Ultimate Fighter winner Roy “Big Country” Nelson will look for his first win since earning the contract against well-rounded Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve.  Nelson defied a lot of critics, breezing through his competition on The Ultimate Fighter, but Struve is a threat both standing and on the ground, so this should be a great fight.

Struve, who comes by his “Skyscraper” nickname honestly, is very tall and has very long limbs which he uses to great advantage, both with his striking and his highly effective submission game.  His striking is not overly powerful, but he uses his reach very well to soften up opponents.  His best work is clearly done on the ground, where he can submit guys in a variety of ways from pretty much any position.  The biggest hole in his game is, by far, his wrestling.  His offensive wrestling is awkward and ineffective and his takedown defense is reminiscent of a man on iceskates.  That could be a problem against Nelson, who is very large and has good wrestling and a brutal top game.

Nelson, who comes by his “Big Country” moniker just as honestly as Struve came by his, does not fit the traditional mold of a top-level athlete.  A decidedly rotund fellow, Nelson looks more like a bouncer at a biker bar than a serious athlete, but his appearance is extremely decieving.  For a man his size, Nelson moves extremely well and fast, and he has turned his bulk into an advantage, using it to smother guys and shut them down from side control and the crucifix.  In addition to his solid wrestling and top game, Nelson is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and an accomplished striker as well, with a lot of power in his right hand and an iron chin to boot.

This fight is going to come down to Struve’s takedown defense, which means that Nelson is going to win.  On the feet, Struve has a big reach advantage, but Nelson has a big power advantage.  Both men are very capable on the ground, and while Struve is probably better at submitting opponents, Nelson’s top control is smothering and he is very good at using his weight to pin guys down and unloading highly damaging short punches and elbows.  There is no way that Struve is going to prevent Nelson from taking him down at will, and despite his great submissions he won’t last long underneath Nelson, especially if “Big Country” can bull his way past the guard.  Expect another trademark Roy Nelson t/ko from side mount or the crucifix as Struve is unable to defend himself against Nelson’s positional dominance.

Prediction:  Roy “Big Country” Nelson via crucifix pounding (T/KO) in the second round.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Nate Quarry vs.  Jorge Rivera

Odds: ( Quarry / Rivera )

In the evening’s second bout, Ultimate Fighter Season 1 alum Nate “The Rock” Quarry will test his mettle against a tough veteran in Jorge Rivera.  Both Quarry and Rivera are very capable, especially in the standup, so this should be a competitive and exciting fight.  Rivera’s mixed results in UFC give this fight a “do or die” tone for him, which makes it even more compelling.

Nate “The Rock” Quarry was one of the favorites to win the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, but an injury suffered in training forced him off the show.  He impressed the UFC brass enough to earn a shot anyway, though, and has done a nice job carving out a niche for himself with his solid submission defense, great chin, and heavy-handed boxing.  He is not the most mobile fighter, and has been hampered by severe back injuries, but he has very heavy hands and he throws hard and accurately.  He is also notoriously difficult to finish, having been stopped on strikes only by Rich Franklin, and submitted only by top grappler Demian Maia.  Considering some of the tough guys he has fought, that is a very impressive track record.

Jorge “El Conquistador” Rivera is a very tough competitor who has been unable to string together wins consistently despite his well-rounded skill set and punishing boxing.  Against low and mid-level competition, Rivera usually gets the job done, but every time he has tried to take a step up in competition it has ended badly.  One thing that has held him back is his submission defense, but against Quarry that is likely not to matter at all.  What is going to matter is that Rivera is also prone to getting knocked out by powerful strikers, something Quarry definitely is.

I think Quarry is just too much for Rivera in this one.  This will almost certainly be a standup fight, since Rivera has neither the inclination nor the ability to take Quarry down.  In a straight boxing match, Quarry wins easily, because he has more power, crisper punching, and, most importantly, a superior chin.  Expect Rivera to get the worst of the striking exchanges and eventually get dropped and finished.

Prediction:  Nate “Rock” Quarry via third round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Andre Winner vs.  Rafaello Oliveira

Odds:  ( Winner / Oliveira)

In the opening bout of the evening, recent Ultimate Fighter finalist Andre Winner will look for his second consecutive win inside the Octagon against well-rounded Brazilian Rafaello Oliveira.  Both men are coming off wins, but both are on the bottom rung of the crowded Lightweight ladder, and with the division seemingly getting more stacked every day, this is a must win for both men if they want to secure their UFC futures.

Rafaello “Tractor” Oliveira, a tough and well rounded fighter who trains at AMA Fight Club with the Miller Brothers and a host of other well-regarded competitors, is 1-1 so far in his UFC career.  Overall, he has amassed a very respectable record, but his level of competition has not been high and Winner almost definitely represents his stiffest test to date.  Oliveira has a good skill set, with decent boxing and wrestling and a solid ground game that improves continually.

His opponent, Andre Winner, is also a well-rounded competitor.  Winner trains out of the very successful Team Rough House with top contenders like Dan Hardy and Paul Daley, as well as Ross Pearson, who defeated him in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter.  On The Ultimate Fighter, Winner showed dangerous standup and a really strong clinch game.  He is also very strong and athletic, which should help him against Oliveira.

I think this fight is Winner’s to lose.  His standup game is better, he has more power, and he will control the fight in the clinch.  On the ground, neither man is a dynamo, but the edge probably goes to Oliveira, although Winner is not terrible on the ground by any stretch of the imagination.  Still, I expect Winner’s dangerous striking to be too much for Oliveira, who will take the T/KO loss.

Prediction:  Andre Winner via second round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…