Author: Pat

170 lbs: Welterweight Title Fight – Georges St. Pierre vs.  Dan Hardy

Main Event Odds:  (-650 St. Pierre / +450 Hardy)

In the main event of the evening, Welterweight champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre will put his title on the line against tough as nails British slugger Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy.  Hardy is one of the premier strikers in the division, but top-level wrestlers have been unable to stop St. Pierre’s relentless takedown game, and Hardy is not known for his takedown defense or ground game, so he is going to have his hands full in this one.

Hardy, a dominant kickboxer with dynamite in his hands, has a chance of knocking out pretty much anyone in the world if he starts landing shots.  Unfortunately for him, though, that is pretty much the only chance he stands in this fight.  The fact that he is getting a shot at all is more a testament to how thoroughly St. Pierre has cleaned out the top of the division than it is to Hardy’s UFC record which, although unblemished, does not feature any opponents on the very top level.  If he wants to beat St. Pierre he has to throw his hands with abandon and hope to land early, hard, and often.

St. Pierre, stylistically, is the worst matchup possible for Hardy.  His standup is actually very good, although not as powerful as Hardy’s, but it is certainly good enough for him to defend himself.  More importantly, though, he is the most dominant wrestler in the sport, and even other dominant wrestlers and top jiu-jitsu fighters have been completely overwhelmed by his takedowns and his grinding style from top position.  St. Pierre can be hurt with punches, as he was against Matt Serra, but ever since that loss he has looked unwilling to stand and trade with anyone, taking fights down early and often and doing his damage on top.

Hardy is a great striker, but he is easily overmatched in this fight.  There is no way he will stop St. Pierre’s takedowns, and no way he will manage to get out from under St. Pierre.  This one is going to be ugly.  Hardy will manage to hang around for a few rounds, but eventually St. Pierre will do enough damage to get this one stopped.

Prediction:  And still champion Georges “Rush” St. Pierre via third round T/KO.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

265 lbs: Interim HW Title Fight – Frank Mir vs.  Shane Carwin

Odds:  (-160 Mir / +130 Carwin)

In the co-main event of the evening, former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir will look to cement a third fight with Brock Lesnar against undefeated prospect Shane Carwin, who was originally scheduled to fight the champion before Lesnar’s highly-publicized bout with diverticulitis.  Carwin has looked like a monster so far, but Mir is a massive step up in competition for him, and is way more well-rounded than anyone Mir has ever faced or is likely to ever face.  With immediate title implications in this fight and both men’s explosive offense, this is not a fight to miss.

Shane Carwin, the undefeated top contender in the Heavyweight division, is a huge man with a surplus of power in his hands.  Originally a wrestler, Carwin hasn’t shown much of his wrestling base in the UFC, opting instead to destroy his opponents with huge power punching.  It’s safe to assume that he has pretty good wrestling too, but his best attribute is definitely his huge punching power.  He also has a solid chin, as he proved by surviving a scary assault from Gabriel Gonzaga in his last fight.  The two big question marks for Carwin are how well his submission defense can hold up against a grappler of Mir’s caliber and how much his one year layoff from activity is going to affect his performance

Mir, the former champion, is one of the most prolific grapplers in the Heavyweight division, but he also has a devastating boxing game, as he proved by being the first man to knock out Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and by blitzing highly-regarded kickboxer Cheick Kongo in his last outing.  Mir’s mixture of punching power and submission prowess is unique in the division, which makes him a particularly dangerous step up for Carwin.  Mir’s big question mark is his chin, as he has been dropped and finished by guys with far less power than Carwin.

This is an interesting fight.  Carwin’s chin is probably less suspect than Mir’s, but both guys punch extremely hard and it’s unlikely that Carwin survives the kind of blitz he took from Gonzaga from a guy as experienced and hungry as Mir.  Carwin may have the wrestling to take Mir down, but if this fight goes to the ground I don’t see Carwin being ready for what Mir can throw at him in terms of submissions.  Carwin is really dangerous, but I think that Mir is just too dangerous and too complete for such a young and inexperienced fighter to handle.  It took Lesnar two tries to crack Mir, and I think Carwin is going to suffer the same fate.  I expect him to get dropped with a shot midway through the first and promptly choked out.

Prediction:  Frank Mir via Second Round rear naked choke.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Jon Fitch vs.  Thiago Alves

Odds:  ( +100 Fitch / -130 Alves)

The second bout of the evening is an anticipated rematch in the Welterweight division, with Thiago “Pitbull” Alves looking to avenge his loss to AKA’s Jon Fitch.  Their first fight was a very competitive affair until Fitch caught Alves with an upkick and then unloaded on him for the stoppage.  Alves has looked awesome since then, losing only to champion Georges St. Pierre, while Fitch has been his usual plodding but effective self, looking uninspiring but getting the job done consistently.

Fitch, an excellent Greco Roman wrestler with solid boxing, trains out of AKA with other top Welterweight stars Josh Koscheck and Mike Swick.  Fitch is frequently criticized for the fact that his fights are sometimes unwatchably boring, and the fact that he almost never finishes an opponent, but no one can deny that he is good at coming out of fights with his hand raised.  His boxing is not dangerous, in terms of finishing a fight, but he is good at doing enough damage and using his stifling clinch game to earn decisions, even against top-flight fighters.  It’s not hard to predict how Fitch will try to deal with Alves, because he deals with every opponent the same way.  The question is whether or not Alves will find a way to deal with it this time.

Unlike Fitch, Thiago Alves is a very aggressive fighter who is always looking to finish his opponents.  Fitch is a very versatile striker with good boxing and powerful Muay Thai.  He can strike from a distance or deal damage from the clinch, which is a huge advantage against a fighter like Fitch.  Alves’ ground game is not spectacular, although it is often times underrated.  In the grappling, Fitch is better both from the clinch and on the ground, but Alves has looked really good against quite a few top-level grapplers.  For him to win, he has to find a way to push the pace without falling into Fitch’s gameplan.

Although Fitch won the first fight, the way it ended was more than a little flukish, and I don’t think a repeat is in the cards.  Alves has grown a lot as a fighter, and isn’t going to let Fitch hold him to a decision.  He will win pretty much all the striking exchanges, and do enough with knees and elbows from the clinch to keep Fitch from executing his game plan.  Fitch is hard to put away, so I see this one going the distance, but Alves should earn the unanimous decision by roughing up Fitch standing.

Prediction:  Thiago “Pitbull” Alves via will even up the score via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

Ben Saunders vs.  Jake Ellenberger

Odds: (-150 Saunders / +120 Ellenberger)

The third bout of the evening is a Welterweight matchup between Ultimate Fighter alum Ben “Killa B” Saunders and IFL veteran Jake Ellenberger.  Ellenberger is 1-1 in his UFC career and has an impressive resume in a variety of other promotions, while Saunders has continued to improve, especially as a striker, since his Ultimate Fighter appearances.

Jake Ellenberger, who has fought in a huge variety of promotions, has amassed a very good record with a mix of dangerous striking, knockout power, solid wrestling, and a decent jiu-jitsu game.  His best attribute is definitely his striking, which is crisp and powerful, especially his punches.  He is not the best grappler out there, but he has very good submission defense and has never once been finished with strikes.  He will enter this fight with a huge advantage in experience over Saunders, which makes him a tough nut to crack, especially considering how hard he is to finish.

Saunders, a self-professed Jeet Kune Do fighter, is very dangerous both standing and on the ground.  He is abnormally tall for the Welterweight division, which not only gives him a huge reach advantage in the striking game, but adds another dimension to his unorthodox but highly effective submission attack.  Saunders uses his length extremely well, and his Muay Thai has become very dangerous, especially since his long reach makes it easier for him to tie people up in the clinch.  His wrestling and takedown game are not the best, but he can do some ground and pound damage and can submit guys both from top position and off his back.

Ellenberger is a tough fighter, but I think Saunders is a bad style matchup for any striker.  Ellenberger has a lot of power, but Saunders’ reach advantage is really difficult to deal with, and now that he has added a very dynamic Muay Thai attack to his arsenal he is a huge threat to finish the fight standing, and in the grappling game he is much more dangerous than Ellenberger.  I expect Saunders to frustrate Ellenberger the entire fight and earn the decision victory.

Prediction:  Ben “Killa B” Saunders via unanimous decision. 

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

155 lbs: Jim Miller vs.  Mark Bocek

Odds:  (-400 Miller / +300 Bocek)

The opening bout of the evening pits two elite grapplers against one another in the Lightweight division, as submission expert Jim Miller takes on tough Canadian rear naked choke machine Mark Bocek.  Both guys are currently just below the top tier in the 155 pound division, and with BJ likely moving up to 170, a win here could insert one of these guys into the title picture sooner than you would think.

Mark Bocek, a Canadian who trains in Florida with American Top Team, is a skilled wrestler who is very good at using top position to secure submissions and finish his opponents.  One of his specialties is doing damage from top position, forcing his opponent to turn, and securing the rear naked choke.  Five of Bocek’s eight professional wins have come by way of rear naked choke, with a sixth coming by armbar.  Against Miller, Bocek will probably be giving up the edge in both submission prowess and standup ability, but he has a definite edge in size and wrestling, so he is going to be a tough opponent.

Miller, one half of the famed “Flying Miller Brothers”, is a prolific grappler who can submit guys from top position, side control, or off his back.  There is little question that Miller’s ground game is more advanced than Bocek’s, and he is also the superior striker, although he does not have a lot of power.  The important thing is that Miller will be giving up the edge in wrestling ability, and the only two losses of his career came at the hands of guys who were able to use wrestling to shut his gameplan down.

This is an interesting stylistic matchup.  Miller will win the standup exchanges and has the more effective submission game, but Bocek’s superior strength and wrestling mean he will probably be the one who controls if, when, and how this fight goes to the mat.  Even so, I think Miller is just too versatile, and his bottom game is superior to anyone Bocek has really fought, so I expect Miller to control most of this fight and keep Bocek in bay when he does earn top position.  Miller by unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Jim Miller via unanimous decision.

To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…