Author: Pat

 205 lbs: Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

The main event of the evening provides a rare opportunity to see two UFC Hall of Famers fight each other, as Mark Coleman and Randy Couture will meet in a fight over a decade in the making.  Coleman and Couture were the wrestling-based pioneers of the UFC Heavyweight Division, and now they will finally meet at Light Heavyweight to settle 12 years’ worth of questions.

Randy Couture is the only man in UFC history to hold titles in two weight classes.  A dominant Greco-Roman wrestler who has defied the odds for over a decade, Couture’s bread and butter is getting the clinch, punishing opponents with dirty boxing, dragging them down, and punishing them on the mat.  He also has pretty solid boxing which, though sometimes unorthodox and looping, has shown an ability to drop opponents with big power punches.  Lately, Couture’s age has appeared to catch up with him at last, which is why Coleman, an opponent just as old and grizzled as he is.

Mark Coleman was the UFC’s original dominant heavyweight.  The innovator of wrestling and ground and pound in Mixed Martial Arts, Coleman has been a mainstay in the sport almost since its inception.  While both Coleman and Couture are known for their wrestling, they are actually very different fighters.  Couture likes to use his looping punches to set up the clinch, whereas Coleman relies on more traditional and technical, but less powerful, boxing and driving double leg takedowns.

This is an interesting matchup for a lot of reasons.  They have some stylistic differences, but their career trajectories have been very similar.  They have similar records and have fought similar levels of competition.  Most notably, neither fighter has lost to anything but top 3 competition in over a decade.  A lot of people are writing Coleman off in this fight, but he did not earn his reputation without the skills to back it up, and he is custom made to neutralize Couture’s advantages.

What I think it will come down to, as many of Coleman’s fights have, is his gas tank.  I think that, technically, Coleman is the superior fighter, and will surprise a lot of people by winning the boxing exchanges and by having superior wrestling.  It is just a matter of whether Coleman’s gas tank holds out long enough for him to win 2 rounds.  Unfortunately, against someone with a pace as grinding as Couture’s, I don’t think Coleman’s gas tank will last it out.  Expect Couture to squeeze by with a decision by winning rounds 2 and 3. 

Fight Prediction: Randy Couture via decision.

• It is worth noting, though, that Coleman is a huge underdog in the betting lines, and it is entirely possibly that he can do enough to earn 2 rounds and the win, so a small bet on Coleman might not be a bad idea considering how disproportionate the odds are.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

 185 lbs:  Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

In the semi-main event, top contenders Nate Marquardt and Chael Sonnen will meet with the next shot at Anderson Silva’s Middleweight title on the line.  Sonnen, once considered a boring, mid-level fighter, has fought his way to the top of the division with a string of impressive and dominant wins, while Marquardt has been on a ridiculous tear since his title shot loss to Silva, so this should be an extremely competitive affair.

Sonnen, who originally made a name for himself as one of WEC’s best Middleweights, ended his WEC career at the top of the heap after soundly defeating Paulo Filho.  When WEC closed their heavier weight classes, Sonnen was thrown into the very competitive UFC Middleweight division, and his stint in the big show got off to a rough start as he was submitted by jiu-jitsu ace Demian Maia.  In his next two fights, Sonnen earned impressive decision wins over solid opponent Dan Miller and top-level contender Yushin Okami, who many felt deserved a shot at the title. 

 That win over Okami, coupled with Marquardt’s win over Maia, put Sonnen in line to compete for a title shot.  There is no question that Sonnen got where he is with dominant, powerful wrestling.  His standup is not excellent and he has shown questionable submission defense, but his wrestling is extremely dominant, which allows him to make up for those shortcomings.

Nate Marquardt, inarguably one of the greatest fighters in Pancrase history, has cemented himself as the clear #2 Middleweight in the UFC behind Anderson Silva.  His only losses in the UFC came to Silva and Thales Leites, but he dominated the entire Leites fight and lost because of point deductions by the referee.  What distinguishes Marquardt is how well-rounded he is.  A lot of modern mixed martial artists have well-rounded skill sets, but Marquardt is top-level at every aspect of the game.  He has excellent submissions, which have accounted for the majority of his wins, very good wrestling, and has become quite an accomplished knockout artist with deadly kicks and punches.

Sonnen is a great wrestler, but Marquardt is a great fighter.  It is unlikely that Marquardt can completely prevent Sonnen from taking him down, but he is a very good wrestler, very good at sweeping and reversing position, and a threat to finish fights off his back with submissions, something Sonnen has proven susceptible to.  Most importantly, though, Marquardt completely overmatches Sonnen on the feet, and if Sonnen has to telegraph his shots through Marquardt’s striking, he is going to get demolished. 

Fight Prediction: Nate Marquardt by T/KO.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

 170 lbs: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

The third bout of the evening is a competitive welterweight matchup between Ultimate Fighter Season 1 alum Mike “Quick” Swick and Brazilian bruiser Paulo Thiago.  Both men are in the middle of the crowded Welterweight mix, so a win here is crucial to distance them from the pack.

Paulo Thiago burst onto the UFC scene with a spectacular knockout of top contender Josh Koscheck.  He followed it up going 1-1 in his next two Octagon appearances, outpointing tough wrestler Jacob Volkmann and coming up just short against another top contender in Jon Fitch.  Thiago has an impressive skill set, with very good jiu-jitsu, good wrestling, and obviously one-punch knockout power, although his standup technique is not spectacular.  That well-roundedness is going to be crucial against Swick, who also has a very versatile offense.

Mike Swick first made a name for himself on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and since that time he has continued to grow as a fighter and turned in a slew of very impressive performances.  Originally a mainstay at 185, Swick moved down after coming up short against Yushin Okami, and fought his way to the top of the Welterweight division before coming up short against Dan Hardy in his last fight.  Swick’s punching is the best thing about his game, but he also has very solid wrestling to complement his technical kickboxing and knockout power.  Another important factor to consider is that both Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, who have fought Thiago, are Swick’s teammates, which almost has to provide some benefit in training for him.

Ultimately, Swick is too well-rounded for Thiago to handle.  Thiago does have one-punch knockout power, but Swick knows that and is too smart to over-commit.  Technically, Swick is much better on the feet, and while Thiago does have good jiu-jitsu Swick’s superior wrestling will keep Thiago from dictating the pace of the bout.  I expect Swick to control this one en route to a unanimous decision.

Fight Prediction: Mike Swick via unanimous decision.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…

185 lbs:  Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

The second bout of the evening has all the makings of a ground war, as two of the Middleweight division’s most prolific submission artists will meet in Dan Miller and Demian Maia.  Both men are coming off losses and both men have world-class ground games, so this should be a competitive grappling clinic.

Dan Miller is one of the best up and coming Middleweights in the world, and most of his success has come as a result of his excellent jiu-jitsu.  In his last fight, he was smothered by dominant wrestler Chael Sonnen, but he is always a threat to finish on the ground and also has solid wrestling and striking that seem to improve every time he fights.

If there is anyone in the 185 pound division that can test Miller’s ground game, it is undoubtedly Demian Maia.  A former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, Maia did not miss a beat translating his deadly submission game to Mixed Martial Arts.  In his last fight, against top contender Nate Marquardt, Maia learned that he had a long way to go to become a complete fighter, as he was knocked out in about 20 seconds in highlight reel fashion.  It’s pretty clear that Maia is a one-dimensional threat, but that one dimension is so spectacular that he can still be successful at the top level.

Miller is just outmatched in this fight.  His best work comes on the ground, but he is grossly outclassed in the grappling game by Maia and he lacks the explosive standup that allowed Marquardt to finish Maia.  This will probably look a lot like a jiu-jitsu match, and unfortunately for Miller there is no way he beats Maia in a jiu-jitsu match.  Maia by submission.

Fight Prediction: Demian Maia via third round submission.

If you want to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds.  They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…