Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Jake Shields vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds:  (-300 Shields /+230 Akiyama )

Betting Pick:  Shields

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In a featured Welterweight bout, former Strikeforce Middleweight champion Jake Shields will look to recover from a two-fight skid against K-1 Hero’s veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama, who has dropped three in a row. Shields was once considered the best fighter in the world outside of the UFC, but has had an extremely rocky start to his UFC career, barely scraping by Martin Kampmann before getting destroyed by Welterweight champ Georges “Rush” St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger in his last two outings. With both guys riding losing streaks in one of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, a win here is crucial for both men if they want to stay employed, much less assert themselves as legitimate players in the title picture. Despite their recent mixed results, both of these guys have versatile and dangerous skill sets, and with the added pressure of their losing streaks, this has the makings of an extremely competitive bout.

Yoshihiro “Sexyama” Akiyama, with his good looks and exciting, fight-finishing style, made himself one of the most popular fighters in Japan. He entered the UFC riding an 11 fight win streak, but has gone an extremely disappointing 1-4 inside the Octagon. Akiyama is an aggressive fighter with good judo throws from the clinch, solid boxing with good punching power, and effective submission offense. Against Shields it would be extremely inadvisable for him to try to turn this into a ground contest, because it is unlikely that he will be able to effectively take Shields down and, more importantly, because Shields’ submissions are way better than Akiyama’s defense. On the feet he will enjoy an advantage in speed, technique, and power, and if he wants to avoid another consecutive loss, he would be well served to try and stay on the outside and use his striking to keep Shields at bay. It’s worth noting that this is Akiyama’s first time fighting at 170 pounds, which could either mean that he will be even more effective because of his size advantage and because his power will translate better, or that he will struggle with the cut and suffer in the cardio and strength departments.

Jake Shields is one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world at 170 pounds. A skilled wrestler as well, Shields is extremely good at getting fights to the ground, controlling opponents from top position, and setting up his ridiculously good submissions. His striking isn’t awful, but it is very rudimentary and he lacks any kind of real punching power. He can hold his own and defend himself, but his boxing is not going to strike fear into anyone’s heart, to put it mildly. Shields’ gameplan against Akiyama will be the same as it is against anyone: he will look for the takedown early and often and try to impose his will. Akiyama is a good grappler in his own right, but he doesn’t have what it takes to hang with Shields in an extended ground war, so if Shields can get his wrestling going early on he will be in a great position to reverse his fortunes and get a win here.

I don’t think this is a particularly favorable matchup for Akiyama. He will enjoy a striking advantage, but I don’t think that he has what it takes to keep Shields from taking him down and controlling this fight from top position. Despite getting triangle choked by Chris Leben, Akiyama actually does have fairly good submission defense, so he should be able to hang around for the judges’ decision, but I think Shields controls the pace and positioning for a relatively easy unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Jake Shields by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Lightweight Championship Bout:  Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Hendeson

Odds:  (-130 Edgar /Even- Henderson )

Betting Pick:  Edgar

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In the main event of the evening, UFC Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar will look to defend his title against former WEC standout Benson “Smooth” Henderson. Edgar, once considered undersized for the division, has established as a dominant champion with stellar defensive wrestling, effective boxing, and unmatched footwork. Henderson is a much bigger and stronger guy with good wrestling of his own and very effective submissions, but Edgar has proven that he has the tools to outbox anyone in the division and is notoriously difficult to take down. If Henderson wants to leave a champion, he is going to have to find a way to capitalize on his strength advantage and get Edgar on his back, where Henderson has the size, strength, and technique to control the action, score points with ground and pound, and work for submissions.

Benson Henderson was one of WEC’s biggest stars, and he made a very “Smooth” transition into the UFC. Henderson is one of the strongest, most dynamic athletes in the Lightweight division, and has extremely solid technique to back up his obvious physical prowess. Henderson is a very effective wrestler with great submissions, especially his guillotine choke, which is one of the best in the sport. He is dominant from top position and it is very hard for opponents to get out from underneath him. His striking is technically sound, but he doesn’t have a lot of punching power and, against Edgar, he will be at a significant disadvantage in both hand speed and footwork. Henderson’s biggest advantages will be size, strength, and reach, and if he can force Edgar to backpedal with long jabs while trying to set up takedowns and get this fight to top position, he will be putting himself in a great position to win this fight. One big question mark is how well Henderson will hold up moving into the championship rounds. He has fought five rounds twice before, and he is supremely conditioned, but Edgar’s evasive style and quick movement have a way of tiring guys out, so Henderson is going to need to be aggressive without blowing all his stamina in the early rounds if he wants to avoid petering out and letting Edgar pick him apart in the fourth and fifth.

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar was once considered too small to compete at Lightweight, where nearly all of his opponents have a size and strength advantage against him. Back to back drubbings of future Hall of Famer BJ Penn went a long way toward answering those questions, and his fourth round knockout of Gray Maynard in his last outing put them to rest for good. Edgar isn’t one of the most dominant fighters in the world in any one category, but he also has no glaring holes and puts everything together flawlessly. He is an accomplished wrestler with great submission skills, but he prefers to use both defensively rather than pressing for takedowns and trying to finish fights on the ground. Edgar’s best work comes in the striking, where he is crisp, quick, and accurate. His footwork is easily the best in the division, and his natural quickness allows him to move constantly, keep opponents guessing, and sneak shots past their defense while staying out of trouble himself. Against Henderson there is no question that Edgar will want to use his grappling defensively and try to keep this fight standing. There is a good chance he could hang with Henderson on the ground, too, but he would be foolish to play into Henderson’s strengths when he will have such a marked advantage on the feet.

This has all the makings of a very competitive championship bout. Both of these guys have the cardio to fight hard for all five rounds; both have extremely versatile skill sets that allow them to press the action wherever a fight goes; and neither has any huge, glaring holes in their game that will be easy for the other to exploit. In the end, though, I think the slight edge goes to Edgar here. He has fought better opponents, he has been on this biggest stage before, and he has an advantage in that fights start standing and Henderson is going to have to find a way to take him down, which Edgar has the tools to prevent. I see this fight going the distance, with a lot of back and forth, but I think Edgar’s ability to thwart Henderson’s takedowns coupled with his superior movement and punching acumen on the feet will allow him to score enough points to successfully defend his UFC Lightweight Title again. Edgar by decision.

Prediction:  Frankie Edgar by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Bout:  Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-265 Jackson /+205 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Jackson

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In the semi-main event, PRIDE legend Quinton “Rampage” Jackson returns to his old Saitama stomping grounds to square off against tough young wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Jackson is clearly on the tail end of his professional fighting career, but he is still a formidable wrestler with knockout power in either hand who will be looking to recapture some of his former greatness in the building where many of his greatest victories occurred. Bader, for his part, got off to a white-hot start before dropping two of his last three, so a win here is crucial if he wants to remain at all relevant in the crowded Light Heavyweight picture. Both of these guys are solid wrestlers with heavy hands who like to stand and throw, so this has all the makings of an exciting and competitive Light Heavyweight showdown.

Ryan “Darth” Bader looked like one of the UFC’s fastest rising stars for a while, holding an undefeated professional record and punishing opponents with his blend of heavy-handed power punching, dominant wrestling, and top control. After seeing his winning streak destroyed by Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones and suffering an embarrassing upset at the hands of former champion Tito Ortiz, though, Bader saw his stock plummet substantially in a matter of months. He did rebound slightly with a win over journeyman grappler Jason Brilz, but now he is back in the deep end of the division fighting another world-class opponent with years and years of experience on him. Bader has the tools to succeed at the highest levels of the Light Heavyweight division, but he has to find a way to put it all together better and he has to improve his submission defense as well. Bader showed against both Jones and Ortiz that he has a hard time dealing with anyone he can’t outwrestle, and Rampage is a perfect example of a guy who can not only match him in the wrestling department, he is also a more dangerous striker as well. If Bader wants to avoid his third loss in four fights and a possible pink slip from the UFC, he is going to have to pick his spots and fight carefully, not giving anything away to Jackson, who has the skills and experience to capitalize on any mistake.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson was one of the most dangerous and popular fighters during PRIDE’s best days, and has continued to show that he is one of the best Light Heavyweights on the planet even in the late stages of his career. Jackson is a great wrestler with a surplus of physical strength and knockout power in both fists. He doesn’t mix it up much in the striking, rarely throwing kicks and instead preferring to box his opponents, but his punching power and the wide, looping trajectory of his haymakers make him a tough fighter to defend against. He has never used his wrestling much offensively, although he certainly could if he decided to. Jackson’s gameplan is to get in his opponents’ faces, keep throwing big punches, and wait until one connects. In a lot of ways Bader is a tailor-made opponent for him, because he will be willing to stand and trade shots for extended periods of time. Rampage is past his physical peak, but he still has it in him to punish anyone dumb enough to be on the end of one of his power punches, and Bader is likely to be ripe for the picking in that regard.

I just don’t think this is a good matchup for Bader on any level. These guys have extremely similar skill sets, but Jackson has been doing it years longer and against massively superior opponents. I don’t think Bader has the wrestling to put Rampage on his back and I don’t think he has the punching power to get through Rampage’s solid chin. This fight will play out on the feet I think, and Jackson will get the better of those exchanges before eventually connecting with enough power shots to put Bader away. Jackson by T/KO.

Prediction:  Rampage Jackson by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt

Odds:  (-300Kongo /+230 Hunt )

Betting Pick:  Kongo

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In a featured Heavyweight matchup, former PRIDE veteran and K-1 World Grand Prix champion Mark Hunt will square off against dangerous French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Both of these guys are dangerous strikers with a lot of experience and deadly punching power, so this one has the potential to be a legendary standup war between two huge guys who are ready for action. There is no question that Kongo has better conditioning and a much more complete fight game, but when two guys this big and strong let their hands go, anything could happen at any time.

Mark Hunt was a mainstay in PRIDE during its heyday, and before that won the K-1 World Grand Prix, so clearly he is a very formidable kickboxer. In addition to his punishing striking, Hunt is known for having a granite chin and being able to absorb a huge amount of punishment, although some of that durability has eroded as he has aged and entered the twilight of his fighting career. Many thought Hunt was finished after he dropped six fights in a row, but he has rebounded with two straight wins in the UFC, so there is still a little left in his tank. There is basically no chance of Hunt beating Kongo with speed, technique, or cardio at this point, but as long as he is standing up and capable of throwing punches, he is still in this fight.

Cheick Kongo may not have Hunt’s K-1 kickboxing pedigree, but he has proven time and again that he is a formidable striker who is not to be underestimated. In addition to devastating power punching, kicking, and clinch work, Kongo also has some of the most underrated wrestling in the division and purely destructive ground and pound. There is every reason to believe that Kongo can outstrike Hunt with relative ease, but even if he gets in trouble he has the fallback plan of being able to plant Hunt on his back where he is helpless and unload disgustingly powerful punches from top position. Kongo also has an excellent chin which should allow him to fight more aggressively on the feet and take the fight right to the fatter, slower Hunt.

This is a terrible matchup for Hunt. He has enough power in his hands that he has a puncher’s chance against anyone in the world, but at this point there is literally nothing he does better than Kongo. Kongo will beat him to the punch consistently, can match him in power, and can hurt him with kicks, knees from the clinch, takedowns, and ground and pound as well. Nearly all of Hunt’s professional losses have come by way of submission, which illustrates just how terrible he really is on the ground. Kongo is unlikely to submit him, but I think he will outbox him fairly easily before this fight winds up on the ground where Kongo will force the stoppage with ground and pound. Kongo by T/KO.

Prediction:  Cheick Kongo by second round T/KO.

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