Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds:  (+250 Sanchez /-325 Ellenberger )

Betting Pick:  Ellenberger

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In the main event of the evening, former Ultimate Fighter winner Diego “The Dream” Sanchez will look for his third consecutive win since returning to the Welterweight division. Standing in his way is heavy-handed contender Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger, who is riding a five fight win streak and coming off the biggest victory of his career, an utter destruction of former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields. Sanchez is one of the most aggressive grapplers in the sport, with great takedowns and submissions, but his boxing is more than suspect and he has poor defense in the standup. Ellenberger, who has a surplus of knockout power and very effective striking, is more than capable of exploiting those weaknesses as long as he can keep Sanchez from getting in his face and bullying his way into top position. Sanchez, after a failed stint at 155, really needs a win here to re-establish himself as a top player at 170, while a win for Ellenberger probably puts him firmly in the middle of the Welterweight title picture, which is wide open following Nick Diaz’s recent failed drug test and Georges St. Pierre’s injury.

Diego Sanchez, formerly known as “The Nightmare” and now known as “The Dream”, is a dangerous and aggressive grappler no matter what you call him. He is renowned for establishing a relentless pace in his fights and never ceasing to move forward and press the action. His takedowns are very effective, he has solid submissions from a variety of positions, and he can do a lot of damage with ground and pound from inside his opponent’s guard or from a dominant position. Sanchez’s cardio is one of his best weapons, because it allows him to keep the pressure on from bell to bell for the entire fight. The only glaring hole in Diego’s game is his boxing, which is pretty awkward and not particularly powerful. His odd boxing stance also makes it difficult for him to effectively defend punches, which means if he fights anyone with even passable boxing who also has takedown defense, he tends to fall apart, eat a lot of shots, and get beat up. Ellenberger has very powerful hands and is a very solid wrestler in his own right, so Diego is really going to need to find a way to force the issue and get this fight to the ground if he wants to leave a winner and put himself back in the contender’s position he enjoyed a few years ago.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger surprised a lot of pundits in his last fight, destroying highly-regarded former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields with strikes in the first minute of their encounter. Ellenberger is a prolific finisher, having finished the fight in 22 of his 26 professional wins. His striking is devastating, as Shields learned the hard way, and he can hurt you with both hands, both knees, and both legs. He is also a skilled wrestler, although he prefers to let his hands go. Against Sanchez, who has no way of outstriking him, Ellenberger’s wrestling skills could come in handy and allow him to keep this fight standing where he will enjoy a tremendous advantage. Ellenberger is a capable grappler, but if he has to work off his back for extended periods against Sanchez, he is going to be in for a very long night. Having beaten Shields, with Jon Fitch recently losing, and with the scheduled Nick Diaz versus Carlos Condit rematch seemingly shelved because of Diaz’s drug test an, an emphatic win over Sanchez could well put Ellenberger into the number one contender’s spot for a shot at Condit’s UFC Interim Welterweight Title, so “The Juggernaut” has a lot to fight for in this one.

I think this matchup heavily favors Ellenberger. His striking is light years beyond Sanchez’s, and I think he is a good enough defensive wrestler to keep this fight standing for the most part. On the feet Sanchez has no answer for Ellenberger’s power or technique, and he will find himself getting picked apart in short order. Eventually, Ellenberger will start sneaking big shots past Sanchez’s porous defense, and it is only a matter of time before he puts Sanchez out. Ellenberger by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jake Ellenberger by second round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (+110 Struve /-140 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Herman

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In the semi-main event, two dangerous Heavyweight strikers will go at it as heavy-handed slugger Dave Herman squares off against rangy Dutch kickboxer Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Both of these guys have destructive striking, but Herman is definitely the more dangerous one-punch knockout artist while Struve will enjoy a massive reach advantage and has world-class jiu-jitsu to back up his striking. On the feet, both of these guys have the tools to finish fights, but Struve has a much more versatile offensive skill set, so Herman is going to have to be aggressive and try to get inside Struve’s reach to punish him with power punches if he wants to avoid the loss here.

Dave Herman is a very dangerous power puncher with good technique, very heavy hands, and a solid chin. His striking style is bruising and aggressive, and every punch he throws has fight-ending potential. Against Struve he will be at a pretty massive reach disadvantage, but if he can get inside Struve’s ridiculous range he has the style and power to destroy Struve with heavy punches and uppercuts from the inside. Herman is the shorter man by far, but he is also far more physically powerful and should be able to keep Struve from taking him down, which is going to be huge in this fight since Herman doesn’t have much in the way of jiu-jitsu and Struve’s submissions are top notch. Herman is going to have to fight a careful fight, because Struve has a lot of punching power too and a superhuman amount of reach, but if Herman can defend himself while moving forward and pressing the action, he has all the tools to really punish Struve with dirty boxing from in tight.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is a very tall, very lanky striker with great reach, great technique, and a world class submission game to go along with it all. He doesn’t have quite as much one punch knockout power as Herman, but his ability to use his reach effectively to keep guys on the end of his punches while staying out of range make him a tough nut to crack. If Struve can get this fight to the ground, he will enjoy a huge advantage in that his jiu-jitsu is world class and Herman has almost no grappling skills at all. Whether or not Struve is capable of getting this fight to the ground is another question, because he is not a particularly effective wrestler and Herman is the much stronger and more compact of the two. Struve is going to have to be very careful in this fight, though, because his chin is notoriously suspect and Herman has more than enough power to make him pay dearly for any mistakes or carelessness.

This is a really tough fight to call. Both of these guys have the tools to end the fight on the feet at any time. It remains to be seen whether Herman’s superior power will trump Struve’s superior reach and versatility, or whether Struve will be able to take Herman down if he decides to. In the end, I think Struve’s glass jaw is going to be the deciding factor here. Even if Struve can land shots on Herman, his lack of one-shot knockout power is going to allow Herman to move forward through the punishment and get inside, where his shorter, more compact build will actually become an asset. On the inside I don’t see a way for Struve to stop Herman from landing big shots, and Herman has too much power for Struve to survive the onslaught for long. Struve will land some punches, but in the end I think Herman will be too much for him. Herman by T/KO.

Prediction:  Dave Herman by first round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement come fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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