Author: Pat

UFC Bantamweight bout:  Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

Odds: (-240 Barao / +190 Jorgensen )

Betting Pick: Jorgensen

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In a featured 135 bout, Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen will look to make it three wins in a row against prolific submission grappler Renan“Barao” Pegado. Jorgensen is widely considered a top 5 Bantamweight, and his sterling amateur wrestling background makes him a very formidable opponent. Pegado, after dropping his first professional fight in 2005, has put together 27 consecutive wins in Shooto, WEC, and UFC, with a remarkable 13 of those coming by way of submission. This is an interesting style match up, in that Jorgensen’s dominant take downs feed right into Pegado’s world-class submission game. It is entirely possible that this fight between two guys primarily known for their grappling will be decided by which guy can do more in the striking.

Scott “Young Guns” Jorgensen is a versatile young fighter with solid punching power and a decent submission game. He can box and he can submit guys from top position, but his best work comes from his stellar take downs, top control, and ground and pound. Jorgensen is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in the sport at 135 pounds, and is very hard to stop from controlling opponents physically, stacking up from top position, and raining down punishment. Against Pegado,working inside the guard might be a reckless decision, but Jorgensen has an advantage in that his wrestling will allow him to defend Pegado’s takedown attempts much more effectively and dictate how this fight plays out. Pegado is also dangerous standing up, but being able to dictate position and being able to use the threat of take downs to neutralize Pegado’s striking are both big advantages for Jorgensen in this fight.

Renan “Barao” Pegado is a long-time veteran of Shooto, WEC,and the UFC who is currently riding a ridiculous 27 fight winning streak. Pegado is one of the most dangerous offensive fighters in the Bantamweight division, with great punching, solid wrestling,and world-class jiu-jitsu. His submissions are spectacular from every position and he has great sweeps and escapes. His standup is powerful and accurate. The big disadvantage he is going to have in this fight is wrestling. He is perfectly capable of working off his back, but being unable to dictate position on the ground is going to hurt him and Jorgensen’s top game is really effective.

This is a very tough fight to call because both guys have so many weapons. There is no question that Jorgensen is the better wrestler, but sitting in Pegado’s guard might be a recipe for disaster. Both guys have heavy hands on the feet, but Pegado is maybe a bit crisper. This could really go either way, but I think the edge in terms of quality opponents, physicality, and strength go to Jorgensen. As a +190 or so underdog, I think it’s hard to bet against Jorgensen’s ultra-physical wrestling and quality submission defense. Jorgensen by decision.

Prediction: Scott Jorgensen by Decision.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Odds: (-265 Koscheck /+205 Pierce )

Betting Pick: Koscheck

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In a featured Welterweight match up, former title challenger Josh “Kos” Koscheck will square off against tough young contender Mike Pierce, who has won four out of his last five. Pierce is a versatile young fighter with heavy hands and a developing skill set, but Koscheck also has a surplus of knock out power to complement his world-class wrestling, so this is going to be the toughest challenge of Pierce’s career so far. On the feet he probably has the tools to hold Koscheck off most of the time and even land some big shots of his own, but for that to happen he is going to have to find a way to stop Koscheck’s driving double leg takedowns, which is a lot easier on paper than it is in the Octagon.

Mike Pierce is a very promising young Welterweight prospect with a rapidly developing game and some dangerous power in his hands. Pierce’s approach is very workman like, and he has the skills to make a fight competitive anywhere it goes, but thus far he lacks that one skill that allows him to impose his will on his opponents and take fights over. He prefers to approach each fight with a dynamic game plan, rolling with the punches wherever the fight plays out and looking for openings to land his big shots or score some points. Against Koscheck it is vitally important that Pierce fights smart and uses range and his jab to set up his big punches, because he has very little chance of surviving underneath Koscheck While forced to work off his back. This is going to be a tough fight for Pierce either way, but if he wants a chance it is going to have to be a standup affair, where his punching power could potentially turn the tide. In a wrestling match, Koscheck’s superior strength and technique will bury him.

Josh “Kos” Koscheck has come a very long way since his de facto role as the villain on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter. On the reality show, he earned the acrimony of the fans with his juvenile behavior and with his decidedly unentertaining lay and pray style. Over the intervening years, Koscheck has grown into a very formidable kickboxer in his own right while continuing to possess the dominant takedown game that got him to the show. Opponents had trouble stopping his takedowns when they knew for a fact they were coming, and they have even more trouble stopping them now that they also have to worry about huge knockout punches, kicks, and knees. The only problems Koscheck has ever really displayed in the Octagon are with guys who he can’t out wrestle and who force him to fight defensively. If he can get into his groove and start really working his game plan, he is extremely difficult to stop.

This is just a bad fight for Pierce. His best attribute is his punching power,which Koscheck also has a surplus of. Unfortunately for Pierce, Koscheck probably has better speed and technique on the feet and assuredly has a vastly superior ground game. I don’t see any way for Pierce to win this fight, and I expect Koscheck to take him down at will and dominate him from top position for a lopsided unanimous decision.

Prediction: Josh Koscheck by Unanimous Decision.

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