Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight Interim Championship bout:  Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Odds:  (-225 Diaz /+175 Condit )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz and top contender “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit will meet for the UFC Interim Welterweight title. Diaz was originally scheduled to face champion Georges St. Pierre in his Octagon return, but was pulled from the fight and replaced with Condit after failing to show up for promotional appearances. With St. Pierre on the sidelines for most of 2012 with injuries and Diaz riding the momentum of dominating former Welterweight champion B.J. Penn, Condit and Diaz will now meet to determine an interim champion. Both of these guys are prolific finishers with versatile offensive skill sets and aggressive styles, so this fight will likely be far more entertaining than either man vs. St. Pierre would have been.

“The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit is one of the most versatile and effective Welterweights in the UFC. Currently riding a four fight win streak and having won 11 of his last 12 bouts, Condit has established himself as one of the top players in the Welterweight division. Condit is a prolific finisher, having only won by decision once, and is one of the most versatile fighters in the sport, as is evidenced by his having an even number of wins by T/KO and submission. He has great hand speed and power and he is effective from range and in the clinch. If there is a hole in his game it is his wrestling, which is serviceable but not dominant. Luckily for him, Diaz is also a subpar wrestler, so that probably shouldn’t come back to bite him. Basically, for Condit and Diaz both, this fight is going to come down to balancing aggression with fighting mistake-free. Both of these guys are so effective with striking and grappling that it might well come down to who slips up first, so Condit is going to have to find a way to impose his own gameplan, not let Diaz get comfortable, but also not get too aggressive and leave himself open.

Nick Diaz has grown into one of the most feared and complete Welterweights in the world. After a first stint in the UFC highlighted by mixed results and some disappointing losses, Diaz really developed into a world-class striker during his time in Strikeforce. His jiu-jitsu has always been stellar from every conceivable position, and with the addition of devastating punching he has become an offensive force to be reckoned with. His punching is highly unorthodox, and while he doesn’t have the same amount of one-punch power that Condit does, he is a master of piling damage on his opponents and relentlessly pressing forward with more shots, making it impossible for them to recover or defend themselves. Like Condit, Diaz isn’t a spectacular wrestler, but he is destructive in the standup and guys are reticent to take him down because of how dominant his jiu-jitsu is. The other thing that makes Diaz so scary is his otherworldly cardio, which allows him to press the action constantly no matter how long a fight goes.

This is one of the toughest fights to call in recent memory. Both of these guys have a ton of momentum against high-level opponents, both have versatile and dangerous skill sets that make them dangers to finish at any time no matter where a fight goes, and neither has glaring weaknesses. This is going to come down to who can impose their own gameplan, who can be more aggressive, and who makes the fewest mistakes. As tough as these two guys are, they are both so dangerous that it is hard to see a five round fight between them going the distance. In the end, I think the edge here goes to Diaz. I think his cardio and chin are a little better, his jiu-jitsu is much better, and his unorthodox boxing style is going to make him a little harder to defend against in the striking. I just think Diaz has too many tools for Condit and will find a way to take this fight over in the late rounds, where his superior cardio and punching volume will overwhelm Condit. Diaz by T/KO.

Prediction:  Nick Diaz by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

Odds: (+120 Nelson /-150 Werdum )

Betting Pick: Nelson

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In the semi-main event, two very accomplished Heavyweight grapplers will go at it as Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum squares off against heavy-handed black belt Roy “Big Country” Nelson. Both of these guys have great submissions, although Werdum has a more impressive jiu-jitsu pedigree, but Nelson has surprisingly fast hands and a surplus of knockout power in his punches. Considering Nelson’s striking advantage and the fact that his huge bulk and quality ground game make him difficult to take down and control, this is going to be a very tough test for Werdum, who is coming off a loss and a long string of inactivity.

Fabricio Werdum is a very accomplished grappler whose jiu-jitsu experience translated very well to Mixed Martial Arts. His signature win was a shocking upset of the once-unbeatable Fedor Emelianenko, but in his last fight he was trounced by former Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem. Werdum is a world-class grappler and notoriously difficult to finish, but he is also something of a one-trick pony. His wrestling isn’t spectacular and his boxing is very rudimentary. Basically he depends on finding a way to get fights to the ground, regardless of the position, and then uses his jiu-jitsu to set up sweeps, escapes, and submissions. Against Nelson he might find that game plan difficult considering Nelson’s superior bulk, wrestling, and punching power.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson doesn’t look much like the prototypical athlete, but he has proven time and again that he is an effective and dangerous Heavyweight fighter. Far from being hampered by his massive gut, Nelson uses it as a weapon to pin opponents down and smother them from the crucifix position, where he is absurdly dominant. Nelson is a solid wrestler with decent technical boxing, very heavy hands, and great submissions, mainly from top position. Against Werdum he will probably only look to use his wrestling defensively, since he has the technique and power to manhandle Werdum on the feet and will probably prefer to press his advantage there.

They say styles make fights, and the style matchup here is not very favorable from Werdum. He is facing a better wrestler with great jiu-jitsu of his own with all the tools to manhandle him on the feet. I don’t think Werdum is going to be able to force this fight to the ground consistently, and on the feet Nelson will play target practice with his head because of his shoddy footwork and defense. Werdum should hang around for a decision, but I think Nelson clearly outpunches him to take all three rounds. Nelson by decision.

Prediction:  Roy “Big Country” Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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