Author: Pat

UFC Middleweight bout:  Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman

Odds:  (+120 Maia /-150 Weidman )

Betting Pick:  Weidman

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In a featured Middleweight bout, former title challenger Demian Maia will look to make it two wins in a row against undefeated phenom Chris “All American” Weidman. Maia is, without a doubt, one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the sport, with world-class jiu-jitsu from every position and rapidly improving wrestling and striking. Weidman has earned himself a lot of hype with a stellar takedown game of his own and an aggressive ground game focused on passing guard, improving his position, softening opponents up with ground and pound, and securing submissions of his own. Weidman has looked unstoppable thus far in his young career, but there is no question that Maia represents a big step up in competition for him and is an opponent that can test his strengths and his weaknesses, so he will need to step his game up if he wants to continue building momentum.

Demian Maia is arguably the most effective submission grappler in the world at 185 pounds, with stellar submissions from every position and world-class sweeps and escapes. His boxing is very much a work in progress, but he continues to improve. He will never be a dangerous striker as he lacks power and it’s too late for him to develop world class technique, but he has become much more effective and aggressive in the striking department. His wrestling isn’t dominant either, but his takedowns continue to improve and he has very tricky trips and short takedowns from the clinch. Maia will always be a grappler first, and will do anything it takes to get fights to the ground, including pulling guard. Against Weidman that really might not be the best plan, because Weidman has pretty good jiu-jitsu of his own and is devastating from top position. If Maia wants to reassert himself as a top figure in the Middleweight division, he is going to have to score points on the feet and try to find tricky ways to wind up in top position on the ground, because he doesn’t want to be underneath Weidman no matter how good his jiu-jitsu is.

Chris Weidman is one of the most exciting and promising young prospects in the Middleweight division. A Matt Serra disciple, Weidman has carved out an undefeated record with dominant wrestling, punishing ground and pound, and excellent submissions of his own. Like Maia, his striking is a work in progress, but he is still young and has shown vast improvement every time he has shown up to fight, so who knows how much his technique has developed since his last fight. There is no question that Weidman’s best work comes on the ground, but he is going to have to be cautious fighting a grappler of Maia’s caliber. Weidman has great jiu-jitsu of his own, so it is entirely possible that he will be able to do enough on the ground to avoid getting submitted while working Maia over from top position, but if he gets too reckless throwing punches or trying to pass guard he could well be setting himself up for disaster. One thing Weidman has going for him is a huge advantage in the wrestling department, so when this fight inevitably goes to the ground he will almost definitely be the one dictating when it happens and in what position.

This is going to be a very tough fight. As strange as it may seem considering the grappling prowess of these two fighters, this one may well come down to who can do more on the feet since their jiu-jitsu could well turn the ground game into a stalemate. It is going to require a very good performance, but I think ultimately the edge here goes to Weidman. He is the better wrestler and will likely control top position on the ground, and I think he has a technical edge on the feet too. I think it is highly unlikely that either of these guys will finish the other, but I think Weidman should be able to do enough to earn the narrow decision in a very competitive bout.

Prediction:  Chris Weidman by Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis

Odds: (-210 Evans /+170 Davis )

Betting Pick: Evans

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion “Suga” Rashad Evans will look to secure his long-promised shot at archrival Jon “Bones” Jones’ Light Heavyweight title. Standing in his way is up and coming contender Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis, who has used his own dominant wrestling to carve out an undefeated professional record and position himself as one of the top young contenders at 205 pounds. Both of these guys have sterling amateur wrestling backgrounds, but Evans has fought much better competition and has had way more time to become a complete Mixed Martial Artist, so this is going to be the toughest fight of Davis’ young career. With a win for Rashad ensuring him a shot at Jones, with whom he has had a very public feud over the last year, and a win for Davis cementing him as one of the top players in the division,this fight has a lot at stake and promises to be very hard-fought and competitive.

Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis is one of the most exciting young fighters in the sport, with a spectacular amateur wrestling background,freakish athleticism, and an undefeated record as a professional. Evans is a rare physical specimen, with explosive quickness and freakish strength, which only helps to complement his technically superior wrestling. Very few athletes in the UFC can do the things Davis can do from a physical stand point. That said, he is still growing as a mixed martial artist, and he seemed to struggle a good bit in his last fight against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. If there is a hole in Davis’ game it is his striking, both offensively and defensively. He does have power but his technique is still a work in progress, and against Nogueira he did not seem able to prevent himself from getting punched. Worse, he did not seem to react well to getting hit, which could be a huge problem against Evans, who has way more knockout power than Nogueira does. If Davis wants to put himself in a position for the title shot he feels he deserves, he is going to have to find away to deal with Evans’ superior striking and experience and try to out wrestle a formidable wrestler, which is clearly no simple task.

“Suga” Rashad Evans is a former Light Heavyweight titleholder and has been the #1 contender, on paper, for well over a year. A series of unfortunately timed injuries have kept Evans from claiming his title shot, and now timing dictates that he clear another hurdle before he gets his chance at Jones’ title. Evans is an extremely dangerous fighter with great takedowns, heavy hands, and a great clinch game that he can use to neutralize opponents. Evans has shown that he has the technique necessary to deal with bigger, stronger fighters,which will come in handy against Davis, who clearly has the physical edge. Rashad’s biggest advantages are his top-level fight experience and his versatility, which mean that he has more tricks up his sleeves from more positions than Davis does. Evans has the luxury of being able to compete no matter how the fight plays out, and is not as dependent as Davis on imposing his own game plan.

This is a tough fight to call for a variety of reasons. For one thing, these two guys have very similar styles and skill sets. Davis is more physically imposing, but Evans has better technique. Evans has far more experience against world-class opponents, but has also been far less active than Davis over the last two years because of repeated injuries. In the end, I think this is going to be an extremely close fight, but Rashad should be able to do enough to earn a narrow decision win. I think their wrestling may largely cancel each other out, and once Rashad starts landing punches I think Davis is going to get much less aggressive rather quickly. Rashad should be able to prevent himself from getting rag dolled while landing enough punches and using his footwork and movement to keep Davis at bay and earn the unanimous decision.

Prediction: “Suga” Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.

UFC Middleweight bout:  Chael Sonnen vs. Michael Bisping

Odds: (-400 Sonnen /+300 Bisping )

Betting Pick: Sonnen

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the semi-main event, prolific wrestler Chael Sonnen will square off against British kick boxer Michael “The Count” Bisping in a featured Middleweight showdown. Sonnen is,without a doubt, the most effective wrestler in the UFC, with unstoppable take downs and a devastating top control game. Bisping, for his part, has very technical and accurate kickboxing to go along with underrated jiu-jitsu and developing wrestling. Not one of Sonnen’s opponents has ever been able to stop him from taking them down at will, and the only guys who have been able to survive are the ones with enough jiu-jitsu off their backs to make him pay for his utter lack of submission defense. Bisping’s jiu-jitsu is very underrated, but his guard isn’t his strong suit and with a guy like Sonnen on top of you raining down punches, it is hard to really focus on your technique. If Bisping wants to avoid another disappointing loss at the top of the division he is going to have to score a lot of points on his feet and figure out a way to sweep or escape Sonnen’s positional control, because if he spends three rounds  on his back he has basically no chance here.

Michael Bisping is a very talented and effective kick boxer with great hand speed, accuracy, and technique. While he lacks the one-punch knockout power of many other strikers, he is expert at using his speed and technique to pile on punishment and overwhelm his opponents. Anyone willing to stand and trade with him may not fear his power, but they tend to wind up paying for it when he lands 20 unanswered shots and renders them unable to continue. His wrestling is very much a work in progress, but it continues to improve with every fight. His jiu-jitsu is very effective and underrated from top position or in the scramble, but off his back he is not particularly dangerous, which could prove to be a huge problem against a dominant wrestler like Sonnen.

Chael Sonnen is one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport’s history, but has made as many waves with his big mouth as he has with his in-fight performances over the last few years. There is no one in the UFC who can match Sonnen’s wrestling, and literally no one has ever been able to stop his take downs over any extended period. Sonnen is viewed by many as a one-dimensional wrestler, which actually sells his boxing short. He is far from a dominant striker but he uses the jab well and can hold his own in the striking, even managing to put a few fists in Anderson Silva’s face during their title match up. Still, his best weapon is his wrestling, and he will always look for the take down first and foremost. From top position, he is almost impossible to dislodge, and he is very good at raining down blows from inside his opponents’ guards and controlling them physically. The only fighters who have ever been able to deal with Sonnen are guys with top-notch submissions off their backs. His submission defense is notoriously terrible, and is the only thing that has kept him from being the most dominant Middleweight in the world. Against Bisping, like everyone else, Sonnen will try for take downs and look to score points and ride the fight out from on top. The only question is whether Bisping has the jiu-jitsu to exploit his one glaring weakness.

This is a nightmare match up for Bisping. He doesn’t have the kind of one-punch power he would need to really hold Sonnen back from shooting for take downs, he doesn’t have the wrestling to keep this fight standing, and he doesn’t have good enough submissions off his back to make Sonnen pay if he gets too aggressive with his ground and pound. I think “The Count” is in for a long night of laying on his back and getting punched, and Sonnen will escape with the easy unanimous decision and some momentum for a possible rematch for Anderson Silva’s title. Sonnen by decision.

Prediction: Chael Sonnen by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Use our Moneyline Calculator below to add up your potential Winnings. Put in a (-) sign if your betting on the favorite.