Author: Pat

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

Odds: (-170 Barry /+140 Morecraft )

Betting Pick: Barry

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, journeyman slugger Pat Barry will look to halt a two-fight skid against Christian Morecraft, who has been having struggles of his own. With Morecraft 1-2 in the UFC and Barry 1-3 in his last four fights, you have to figure these guys are fighting to stay on the roster, especially since UFC just folded Strikeforce’s Heavyweight division into their own. Both of these guys have power on their feet, but Barry is easily the better striker. Morecraft is more well-rounded, but he has an awful chin, so this might get ugly for him.

Pat “HD” Barry is a one-dimensional slugger with a lot of knockout power and not much else. He does throw effective kicks, especially to the legs, but for the most part he stands toe to toe with opponents and absorbs damage to throw haymakers. There is no denying that he has fight-ending power in his hands, but he has no ground game and his technique is sloppy and overly aggressive. He is still a better striker than Morecraft, though, so all he needs to do is keep himself from getting taken down and submitted and he should have enough to get back in the win column.

Christian Morecraft is a talented young Heavyweight with a fairly versatile skill set, but he’s not dominant at anything and he doesn’t handle adversity well at all. His striking is decently powerful, but no match for Barry’s, his technique is sloppy, and he tends to bumrush opponents with no rhyme or reason. He has fairly good wrestling and effective submissions, which he is going to have to use if he wants to survive this fight.

With both of these guys possibly fighting for their careers, they should at least show up motivated. On the feet Barry will chop Morecraft’s legs out from under him and destroy him with power punches. If Morecraft can get to the ground he has more than enough jiu-jitsu to submit Barry, but I don’t think Morecraft will be looking to exclusively grapple and I don’t think he’d be successful if he tried. I don’t think he has a match for Barry’s leg kicks or his punching power, and eventually his fragile chin gets exploited. Barry by T/KO.

Prediction: Pat “HD” Barry by first round T/KO.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Jim Miller vs. Melvin Guillard

Odds: (-205 Miller /+165 Guillard )

Betting Pick: Miller

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In the main event, prolific grappler Jim Miller will square off against heavy-handed slugger Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard in a featured Lightweight bout. These are two of the more exciting young prospects in the Lightweight division, but with both guys coming off disappointing losses, a win here is crucial for them to reassert themselves as potential title challengers in the future. Guillard has shown a huge amount improvement since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, but was manhandled and out grappled by Joe Lauzon in his last fight; a game plan Miller is more than capable of recreating. If Guillard wants to avoid a two-fight skid and the loss of all his hard-earned momentum, he is going to have to try to keep this fight standing as much as possible, since he will enjoy a big power and speed advantage on the feet.

Melvin Guillard is an extremely dangerous and athletic young fighter with fast, heavy hands and accurate boxing. Motivation was a big question early in his career, but under the tutelage of Greg Jackson he has grown into a serious Lightweight contender. Guillard is a threat to knock out anyone willing to stand with him, but thus far his career has been hampered by his porous takedown defense and lack of any real ground game. In his last fight, Joe Lauzon showed that while he has grown as a fighter, he is still vulnerable to an aggressive, technical grappler. There is no question that Guillard will pick Miller apart on the feet, but to do that he has to find a way to keep the fight standing, because if he has to work off his back underneath Miller he is pretty much done for.

Jim Miller is one of the Lightweight division’s most consistent and effective submission grapplers. A solid wrestler with great jiu-jitsu, Miller is a threat to finish fights and to ground opponents and grind out decisions while neutralizing their offense. On the feet Miller is actually fairly effective and underrated, but he would be foolish to stand with the faster, more powerful Guillard. If he looks for takedowns early and often and presses his advantage on the ground,though, he will be in a great position to hand Guillard his second consecutive loss.

This is a tough fight to call because both guys shine indifferent areas. On the feet, Guillard will work Miller over with superior technique, hand speed, accuracy, and power. If Miller can force this fight to the ground, Guillard is a fish out of water on his back and Miller’s wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and positional control will be far more than he can handle. Ultimately, I think the edge has to go to Miller here. Joe Lauzon illustrated a game plan to beat the “new and improved” Guillard, and Miller is in many ways a stronger, more physical Lauzon with better wrestling. I think Miller should be able to get this fight to the ground early and often, and from top position he can soften Guillard up with ground and pound while waiting for a mistake to capitalize on. Miller by submission.

Prediction: Jim Miller by second round rear naked choke.

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UFC Welterweight bout:  Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

Odds:  (+110 Ludwig /-140 Neer )

Betting Pick:  Neer

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In the semi-main event, striking phenom Duane “Bang” Ludwig will face tough, seasoned veteran Josh “The Dentist” Neer in a featured Welterweight matchup. Ludwig is with out a doubt one of the most dangerous strikers ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts, but his chin, takedown defense, and ground game are all more than suspect. Neer isn’t as good at anything as Ludwig is at throwing punches, but he is a formidable striker in his own right with a rock-solid chin, good wrestling, and effective submissions. It remains to be seen whether Ludwig’s one outstanding skill will be enough to trump Neer’s superior versatility.

Duane “Bang” Ludwig is an extremely dangerous kick boxer with blazing hand speed, pinpoint accuracy, and a surplus of knockout power. While he is undeniably effective at dolingout punishment on the feet, his defense is lackluster and he has a glass jaw. His takedown defense is horrible and, while he does have some submissions, he is easily controlled on the ground and is not good at all off his back. Basically, Ludwig is a glass cannon and a one trick pony, but that one trick is extremely good. If Ludwig can connect with a power shot, Neer is probably in big trouble, no matter how good his chin is. The question is whether Ludwig can get his punches off before Neer lands a few of his own or forces this fight to the ground.

Josh “The Dentist” Neer is one of the toughest and most well-rounded veterans in the sport. With over 40 professional fights under his belt, Neer has been around the block more than once. Neer is also one of the more versatile fighters at Welterweight, with punishing boxing, effective wrestling,and good submissions to go along with an iron chin and a lot of heart. Against Ludwig, it is entirely possible that Neer has the power and technique to exploit “Bang’s” glass jaw, but he would be silly to even run the risk of getting clipped when he has all the tools to take Ludwig down and brutalize him from top position.

I don’t think this is a very favorable matchup for Ludwig. “Bang” shines when guys are willing to stand in front of him and let him exploit their poor stand up technique, but Neer’s chin and more importantly, his ability to easily take Ludwig down and beat him up, are going to cause Ludwig fits. I don’t think Ludwig is going to be on his feet long enough to showcase his striking, and on the ground this fight is going to be all Neer. Neer by submission.

Prediction:  Josh “The Dentist” Neer by first round rear naked choke.

Note: Neer went from +105 to now the Fav at -130

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