Author: Pat

On Saturday, February 4, 2012, UFC 142 will air live on Pay Per View from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz will face off against “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit for the Interim UFC Welterweight Title. With Georges St. Pierre sidelined due to injury, this match will crown a new king of the 170 pound division for the first time in years. Diaz has proven to be one of the most devastating boxers in the division on top of having world-class jiu-jitsu, but Condit is one of the most complete fighters in the world, so this should be a legendary matchup.

Main Card:

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Bodog.com Odds

• Diaz         (-160)
  
• Condit    (+130)
  

Betonline.com Odds

• Diaz
• Condit

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum

Bodog.com Odds

• Nelson
• Werdum

Betonline.com Odds

• Nelson
• Werdum

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce

Bodog.com Odds

• Koscheck
• Pierce

Betonline.com Odds

• Koscheck
• Pierce

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen

Bodog.com Odds

• Barao
• Jorgensen

Betonline.com Odds

• Barao
• Jorgensen
  

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks

Bodog.com Odds

• Herman
• Starks
  

Preliminary Card:

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway

Bodog.com Odds

• Poirier
• Holloway
  

Matt Riddle vs. Jorge Lopez

Bodog.com Odds

• Riddle
• Lopez
  

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa

Bodog.com Odds

• Caceres
• Figueroa
  

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope

Bodog.com Odds

• Brown
• Cope
  

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper

Bodog.com Odds

• Natal
• Kuiper
  

In the semi-main event, another top Welterweight contender, Josh “Kos” Koscheck, will face off against up and comer Mike Pierce. In a featured Heavyweight bout, grappling ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum will face off against Roy “Big Country” Nelson, a formidable jiu-jitsu black belt in his own right. Rounding out the card are Renan Barao taking on Scott Jorgenson and Matt Riddle facing Jorge Lopez.

Make sure to Check back with us closer to fight night as I will have updated UFC 143 Odds plus Fight Predictions.  And to add a little excitement to your fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.

UFC Featherweight Title bout:  Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes

Odds: (-325 Aldo / +250 Mendes )

Betting Pick: Aldo

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, Featherweight champion Jose “Scarface” Aldo will look to continue his utter dominance of the division against top contender Chad “Money” Mendes. Aldo has basically looked untouchable in establishing his 145 pound dominance, riding a 13 fight win streak against all the best competition in his division. Mendes, for his part, has used dominant wrestling and positional control to put together an unblemished professional record and climb his way to a title shot. Mendes has never had to deal with anyone who can strike like Aldo can, but his ability to ground fights and hold top position could give Aldo some trouble. If Mendes can take Aldo off his game with takedowns and force him to work off his back, he may well be in a great position to pull off the upset.

Chad “Money” Mendes is one of the most effective and dangerous young fighters in the Featherweight division. Riding 11 straight wins and an undefeated record, Mendes will get a chance to use his dominant wrestling to try and derail Jose Aldo’s six and a half year reign of dominance. There is no question that Aldo is the best fighter Mendes has ever had to face, and Aldo’s unique weapons are going to make it even more difficult for Mendes in his first title shot. Mendes is going to have to be very careful in the standup not to give anything away and not to let Aldo chop away his base with his patented low kicks. There is no question that Chad Mendes comes into the Octagon to wrestle, and that is exactly what he will try to do to Aldo here. His only chance is by taking Aldo’s strengths away and forcing him to work off his back. If Mendes can secure takedowns reliably, he definitely has the wrestling and positional control to grind out a decision from top position. He is just going to have to be very careful not to make any huge mistakes in the striking and not to telegraph his takedowns. Asking a young fighter in his first title shot to fight a mistake-free fight is asking a lot, but that’s what Mendes will need to do if he wants to leave with a championship belt and his undefeated record intact.

For all the hype that Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre get for their relative dominance of their division, it is 145 pound king Jose “Scarface” Aldo who may well be the most dominant champion in the sport. Aldo has not only fought, and beat, the best fighters in his weight class for the last six years or more, he has crushed former champions, former Lightweight contenders, and every other threat in his division with ease. Following back to back destructions of former champions Urijah Faber and Mike Thomas Brown, Aldo crushed a surging Manvel Gamburyan, handled another top contender in Mark Hominick, and then embarrassed former Lightweight contender Kenny “KenFlo” Florian in his Featherweight debut. Aldo’s striking is superlative, and his defense seems impenetrable at times. Aldo’s ability to move in and out, landing strikes both ways, and to destroy his opponents’ movement with low kicks make him extremely difficult to deal with on the feet. He isn’t a dominant grappler, but he has shown great takedown defense and a good defensive ground game, which is all he needs to work his devastating standup game. He will enjoy a huge striking advantage over Mendes, he just needs to make sure not to commit too much or leave himself open for easy takedowns.

Despite Aldo’s untouchable pedigree as a champion, this is a pretty tough fight to call. There is no question that Aldo has the tools to pick Mendes apart on the feet, but Mendes’ wrestling is far better than anything Aldo has had to deal with recently, and he is not going to win this fight off his back. If Mendes can secure takedowns consistently, something he has the ability to do, he will win this fight. Still, this is his first big title fight, and Aldo has consistently handled the pressure of these big fights without even breaking a sweat. Mendes is going to be a player in this division, but I think at this point Aldo is just a little too quick, a little too experienced, and a little too crafty. Aldo by decision.

Prediction: Jose Aldo by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.

UFC Middleweight bout:  Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

Odds: (-145 Belfort / +115 Johnson )

Betting Pick: Belfort

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the semi-main event, up and comer Anthony “Rumble” Johnson will jump right into the deep end of the Middleweight division as he squares off against feared Brazilian striker Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort. Johnson struggled continually to make weight as a Welterweight, so 185 should be a much more natural division for him, but that may not matter against a striker of Belfort’s caliber. Johnson will definitely be looking to overpower Belfort with takedowns and grind this one out from on top, but Belfort’s ground game is fairly formidable and he has the tools to destroy Johnson standing, so this is going to be a tough Middleweight debut for “Rumble”.

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is a very physically impressive wrestler who is making his debut as a Middleweight. He was trying to cut way too much to make 170 pounds, and as often as not could not meet his mark, so a move to 185 is a smart career decision for him. At 170, Johnson’s size and strength were his best attributes. Obviously he is not going to be as oversized at Middleweight, but he will also benefit from not cutting so much weight and depleting himself. I think at a more natural weight, Johnson’s strength will really shine, and his wrestling is still going to be tough for people to deal with. He is going to have to be smart and effective with setting up his takedowns, because on the feet he doesn’t have the speed, power, technique, or chin he would need to hang with Belfort for long. Securing takedowns won’t assure Johnson a win, but it will give him a chance, something he doesn’t have if this turns into a kickboxing match.

Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort is a UFC legend who has proven repeatedly that he is still one of the most formidable Middleweight strikers in the world. His hand speed, technique, accuracy, and power are all world class, and against “Rumble” he will enjoy a huge advantage in all of those categories. Belfort is also a pretty good wrestler with very underrated jiu-jitsu, but considering Johnson’s size and wrestling ability I don’t think Belfort will be looking to grapple at all. Instead, he will smartly press his advantage on the feet, moving toward Rumble aggressively and making him backpedal so that he can’t set up his takedowns.

This is a brutal fight for Johnson. For the first time he is fighting a guy who he isn’t substantially larger than, and a guy who is more than capable of testing his suspect chin. I don’t think Johnson’s wrestling is good enough to ground Belfort for three rounds and I don’t think his defense is good enough to keep him alive standing. Belfort will pick Johnson apart on the feet and ultimately put him away with strikes. Belfort by T/KO.

Prediction: Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort by second round T/KO.

Note: Johnson started around a +105 Dog and is now the favorite. Well now after his weight issues he is at +115 Odds.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.

UFC Lightweight bout:  Sam Stout vs. Thiago Tavares

Odds: (-115 Stout /-115 Tavares )

Betting Pick: Stout

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In a featured Lightweight matchup, submission wiz Thiago Tavares will square off against heavy-handed slugger Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout in a classic striker versus grappler matchup. This is an interesting matchup not only because the two guys excel in different areas, but because each of their strengths are perfectly suited to exploit the other’s weaknesses. Stout’s aggressive, heavy-handed slugging is going to give the notoriously glass-jawed Tavares fits, and Tavares’ ultra-technical ground game will confound Stout, whose ground game pretty much consists of getting punched and standing up.

Thiago Tavares is a very talented submission grappler whose inability to take a punch or strike effectively has made him an inconsistent performer. Tavares has great submissions from every position, but he is not a dominant wrestler who can force opponents to fight his fight and he isn’t a competent enough striker to keep himself alive while he is unable to get fights down. Against Stout he is going to have to find a way to get this fight down, because Stout has more than enough punching power to exploit Tavares’ glass jaw. On the ground Tavares will wrap Stout up and control him from any position, so finding a way to take Stout down has to be his biggest priority if he wants to avoid another disappointing loss.

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout is a tough, experienced brawler with an aggressive style and good power punching. He isn’t always the most consistent fighter, but he is durable, heavy-handed, and brings the fight to his opponents. He will be able to destroy Tavares standing, both in terms of technique and power. As long as he can stop Tavares’ anemic takedowns, Stout has all the tools to make it two knockout wins in a row.

This is going to be a tough fight for Tavares. He can’t box and he can’t really wrestle either, which really makes his top-notch submissions pretty useless. Stout is hardly a bastion of takedown defense, but he’s good enough to keep this fight standing, and he will have his way with Tavares on the feet. Stout by T/KO.

Prediction: Sam Stout by second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.