Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida

Odds: (-550 Jones/ +375 Machida )

Betting Pick:  Jones

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In the main event, Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will look to make his second title defense against former champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Jones’ rise to the top of the Light Heavyweight division has been meteoric, and he has not only handled every step up in competition, he has made all of his opponents look like amateurs in the process. Lyoto’s slick counterpunching style, coupled with great takedown defense and a very solid ground game, could provide obstacles Jones has never had to deal with before. It remains to be seen whether or not Machida’s technical prowess will be enough to trump Bones’ freakish athleticism and raw power, but either way it makes for a great style matchup.

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida roared to the top of the 205 pound division with a slick, defensive striking style and a karate background that gave his standup technique a whole different complexion from most kickboxers. Machida is one of the most difficult fighters in the world to figure out. He is very hard to take down, very hard to hit with punches, and incredibly effective at landing counterpunches while backpedalling and sidestepping. He has pretty good jiu-jitsu as well, but he is unlikely to try and take this fight, or any other, to the ground. Against Jones he is going to want to maintain range, keep pressing his footwork advantage, and wait for Jones to throw lunging punches before countering him with quick shots.

Jon “Bones” Jones has had one of the fastest and most impressive trips up the ladder in the sport’s history. Jones’ unique mix of reach, athleticism, punching power, dominant wrestling, and effective submissions have allowed him to not only move steadily up the rankings, but to leave a trail of embarrassed veterans in his wake. Every time he has stepped up in competition, he has destroyed his opponent. It’s not just that he has won so impressively, it’s that no one has even appeared capable of remotely testing him in any way. Machida’s hyper-defensive striking is a new look, but if Jones can secure a clinch, muscle him to the ground and batter him, it really isn’t going to matter.

Lyoto is a very dangerous and effective striker, but I don’t think he really has anything for Jones. Jones has far more reach and far more punching power, and more importantly Jones is the vastly superior grappler and the much stronger fighter. I think it is entirely possible Jones could manhandle Machida in a purely kickboxing matchup, but there is no reason for him to even try. Jones has all the tools to ragdoll Machida to the ground and unload on him from top position, and I think that’s what he will do. Jones continues his run of dominance with a ground and pound T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Jon “Bones” Jones by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Odds: (-285 Mir /+225 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Nogueira

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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir and former PRIDE Heavyweight champion and Interim UFC Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The last time these two met, at UFC 92 in 2008, Nogueira was hampered by a terrible staph infection and Mir completely brutalized him. Nogueira has undergone a variety of surgeries since their first fight and will enter the Octagon healthy and coming off a huge TKO win over Brendan Schaub, and would like nothing more than to prove that their first bout was a fluke. These are two of the Heavyweight division’s most accomplished submission grapplers, but Mir will probably want to stand and trade with Nog and Minotauro will likely be more than happy to oblige.

Frank Mir, a former UFC Heavyweight champion, has re-established himself as one of the top players in the Heavyweight title picture with a string of wins. Still, despite winning two in a row, neither win was particularly impressive. He looked lost for two rounds against Cro Cop before finishing him right as time expired and failed to finish an extremely sick Roy Nelson. A win is a win, though, and three in a row would put Mir firmly in the title mix again. If he wants to beat Nogueira he is going to have to replicate his game plan from the first fight, bullying Nogueira around on the inside with uppercuts and hooks, keeping Nogueira from getting into a groove and using his size and power advantages to keep Nogueira on the defensive.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotauro” Nogueira is a true legend of the sport. A former titlist in both PRIDE and UFC, Nogueira has consistently faced the best Heavyweights in the world for a decade now and has put together a very impressive record. It is clear that years of beatings and injuries have caught up with him and that his once-impregnable chin is no longer as solid as it once was, but most everyone wrote him off against Brendan Schaub and he completely destroyed him with punches. Nogueira’s boxing is some of the most accurate and technical in the division, and his ability to pull off desperation submissions is the stuff of legend. He was outstruck badly by Mir in their first fight, but he was suffering from a staph infection at the time. It remains to be seen how much of his problem was illness and how much was a bad matchup with Mir.

This is a very tough fight to call. It is easy to say that Mir will dominate Nogueira like he did the first time, but that ignores how sick Nogueira was. It is just as easy to blame Nogueira’s loss solely on the illness and underestimate how dangerous and powerful Mir’s boxing really is. I think it is clear that Nogueira is healthier this time and will perform better, but Mir is still a tough style matchup who can control him in the clinch and has substantially more one-punch power. Still, I think the edge here goes to Nogueira, who is a much more technical boxer and has by far the more effective ground game. Mir is the stronger fighter but Nogueira is slicker and more technical, and should be able to score enough points to win a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  “Big Nog” by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Odds: (+160 Ortiz /-200 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Nogueira

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In a featured Light Heavyweight bout, former Light Heavyweight champion and surefire Hall of Famer Tito Ortiz will square off against PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira. Ortiz’s potent double leg and ground and pound made him one of the most dominant fighters in the world during his peak, but time and repeated back injuries have cost him a lot of his former effectiveness. Nogueira was a very promising young fighter in PRIDE, but his UFC stint has been marred by uneven performances and disappointing results. Both of these guys are skilled and experienced, though, and a win here is big for both guys, although for different reasons. This should be a very competitive and exciting bout.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend and, at his peak, was probably the most dominant Light Heavyweight in the world. Tito’s dominant double leg takedowns, positional control, and ground and pound changed the landscape of the sport forever. His repeated struggles with back injuries have really impacted his ability to quickly change levels over the years, though, so now his takedowns are nowhere near as effective or difficult to defend as they used to be. Still, Ortiz is a durable and experienced veteran with solid boxing technique, and he is still effective from top position even if he is not as good at forcing fights there.

Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira is a well-rounded and skilled veteran who is in the middle of an unprecedented slump, having dropped two in a row. Even more troubling, one of those losses was a manhandling at the hands of Ryan Bader, who Ortiz destroyed with relative ease. Little Nog is a great boxer with solid punching power and impeccable technique with world-class jiu jitsu, but he has had mighty struggles against good wrestlers throughout his career and especially in his last few bouts. If he wants to avoid a third straight loss, he is going to have to press his advantage on the feet while still defending against Ortiz’s takedowns, which is no easy task.

This is a tough fight to call. On the one hand, both guys recently fought Ryan Bader, and Ortiz dominated him while Nogueira got handled. Still, though, styles make fights, and Ortiz can’t stand and box with Nogueira, nor can he consistently sit on top of him in guard even if he can secure takedowns. I don’t think Tito’s wrestling is good enough for him to consistently take Little Nog down, and Nogueira’s jiu jitsu is too good to make sitting on top of him for three rounds a winning strategy. Both of these guys are tough and durable, and this fight should go the distance, but I think Nogueira will be able to consistently out punch Ortiz for the narrow decision win.

Prediction:  “Lil Nog” by Split Decision.

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