UFC Welterweight bout:  Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

Odds: (+115 Kampmann / -145 Story )

Betting Pick: Story

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In a featured Welterweight bout, tough wrestler Rick “Horror” Story will square off against well-rounded Danish veteran Martin Kampmann. Both of these guys are great fighters with dangerous skill sets, but both are coming off losses and Kampmann has dropped two in a row, so both guys really need the win here to re-establish themselves as legitimate players in the crowded Welterweight title scene. Three losses in a row would be a disaster for Kampmann, who already dropped a weight class following some mixed results at Middleweight, so this is, in many ways, the most important fight of his career.

Rick “Horror” Story is a very tough, durable and effective wrestler. He has a well-rounded skill set and doesn’t have any really glaring holes in his game, but he isn’t spectacular at anything either. He is a good wrestler with a solid clinch and effective take downs, but he is hardly an elite grappler or one of the best wrestlers in the Welterweight division either. His boxing is serviceable but not overly powerful, and he doesn’t have much in the way of submissions either. Story is a grinder, who wears opponents down with accumulated punching. After dropping his UFC debut, Story put together six impressive wins in a row, but looked ineffective and listless in losing to Charlie Brenneman in his last fight. If Story wants a win here, he is going to need to find a way to neutralize Kampmann’s striking and avoid his submissions on the ground, which is a pretty tall order.

Martin Kampmann is an extraordinary athlete who enjoyed a good amount of success at 185 pounds before dropping down to Welterweight. Since, he has had very mixed results, losing three of his last five fights, albeit against very good competition. Offensively, Kampmann is very dangerous. He is a skilled kickboxer with good wrestling and effective submissions, which makes him a threat to finish fights anywhere they go. Kampmann’s problems are that he tends to turn in inconsistent performances, his chin is suspect, and he doesn’t deal well with anyone who can physically bully him around or out wrestle him. Obviously that could be problematic against Story, a very physical wrestler.

This is a very difficult fight to call. There is no question that Kampmann has more ways to finish this fight than Story, or that Kampmann is the more dangerous of the two offensively. Styles make fights,though, and Story has exactly the kind of skills that will give Kampmann fits. Kampmann is the more dangerous striker and far better on the ground, but Story has much better wrestling which he can use to control the pace of the fight and neutralize Kampmann’s offense. In the end, I think Kampmann is going to suffer another disappointing defeat. Story is adept enough to not get submitted off his back, and will control the action by neutralizing the pace using the clinch and controlling position with take downs. I expect Story to take the unanimous decision here and put Kampmann’s UFC tenure on the proverbial ropes.

Prediction: Rick “The Horror” Story via Unanimous Decision.

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