Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Mauricio Shogun Rua vs. Dan Henderson

Odds: (-115 Rua /-115 Henderson )

Betting Pick: Henderson

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The main event of the evening features two PRIDE legends meeting for the first time in the UFC as former two-division PRIDE champion Dan “Hollywood” Henderson makes his octagon return against former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. These were two of PRIDE’s best 205 pounders, but their paths have never crossed until now. Both of these guys have a lot of knockout power in their hands, but this is a great style match up in that Shogun is the more technical and aggressive striker while Henderson brings dominant wrestling to the table that Shogun can’t match. One important question is who will be able to control the clinch. Henderson’s Greco Roman background and Shogun’s dominant Muay Thai make them both particularly effective from that position, so whoever can establish their game and use the clinch to control the pace of the fight will probably wind up the winner.

Dan “Hollywood” Henderson is a true legend of the sport who has won six of his last seven fights against stellar competition. A former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in PRIDE, Henderson has consistently fought the best in the world in two weight classes for years now. At this point in his career, 205 pounds seems like a much more natural weight for him and he seems to perform much better without the significant weight cut. Henderson is an extremely dangerous fighter, with some of the most devastating power punching in the sport and world-class wrestling to back it up. Henderson has great take downs and is a dominant force in the clinch,using it to control position, land strikes, and set up trips. Against Shogun he is going to need to rely more heavily on his wrestling than he usually does, because Shogun is the faster, more technical, and more accurate boxer. If Henderson wants a win in his return to the UFC he is going to have to find a way to ground Shogun and wear him out with ground and pound, because chances are he will be out boxed and beaten to the punch consistently.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the most devastating strikers in the Light Heavyweight division. A former UFC champion who made his name destroying people in PRIDE,Shogun is an extremely fast, technical, and accurate boxer who also has great kicks and a destructive attack from the Muay Thai clinch. His jiu-jitsu is actually quite underrated,but against Henderson that probably won’t matter much since he will want to avoid the ground if he can. On the feet Rua is faster and way more technical, and should be able to beat Henderson to the punch, so he will want to exploit his striking advantage as much as he possibly can. As long as Shogun can keep distance and make this a boxing match, he has the skills to take Henderson apart. Shogun is adept in the clinch,but even so, he might want to avoid giving Henderson a chance to wear him down with wrestling and try to maintain his range as much as possible.

This is going to be a very competitive fight. Both of these guys have the kind of power that ends fights with one shot, so anything could happen. The question is whether Shogun’s aggressiveness and superior striking technique will be able to trump Henderson’s ability to neutralize the action with the clinch and force the fight to the ground. Ultimately, I think this is a bad match up for Rua. He is a great boxer, but he is going to have be wary of Henderson’s looping power punches, and Henderson’s Greco Roman wrestling is going to neutralize one of Rua’s best weapons, the Muay Thai clinch. Henderson has the perfect style to neutralize Shogun’s brutal attack, and I think he will earn the unanimous decision by grounding Shogun, scoring points on the ground, and taking Rua off his game.

Prediction: Dan “Hollywood” Henderson via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Middleweight bout:  Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le

Odds: (+115 Silva / -145 Le )

Betting Pick: Le

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In a featured Middleweight bout, Strikeforce legend Cung Le makes his UFC debut against fading PRIDE legend Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer”Silva. These guys are both icons of the sport, and in their primes this would have been a legendary match up. Silva is on the decline, but he is still a dangerous and aggressive striker who will take the fight directly to Le, so this is going to be a very exciting fight.

Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva was once one of the most feared Light Heavyweights on the planet. Time and attrition have caught up to him, and he has lost some of the destructive physicality he enjoyed in his prime, but he is still a technically proficient striker with good punching power, a great clinch game, and very fast hands. He actually has some pretty good jiu-jitsu as well, but he basically never looks to take fights to the ground and Le will probably be content to stand and bang with him. This fight will be like all of Silva’s fights. He will wade forward and let his hands fly, trying to overwhelm Le. If it works he will destroy him, if not he will get knocked out.

Cung Le is a long-time Strikeforce veteran who is appearing in the UFC for the first time. Despite his years in the sport, Le has not fought very much and has fought a very low level of competition relative to Silva or most other top fighters. Just because he hasn’t been very active or fought top guys, though, doesn’t mean that he is not a legitimate threat. Le is a savage kick boxer with great hands, a lot of power, and some of the most violent kicks in the sport. He has finished more than one opponent with absolutely brutal kicks to the body, and his leg kicks are debilitating. He also has fairly solid take downs, although his ground game isn’t much to speak of.

This has all the makings of an entertaining bout. Le’s striking is powerful and surgical, and Silva is the perfect opponent for him in that he will keep walking forward until he can’t do it anymore. At Silva’s prime I think he would have ripped Le apart, but in his current state and at185 pounds I don’t think Silva has the power or the physical strength to overwhelm Le fast enough to prevent himself from getting battered. Both of these guys like to stand and trade,and at this point Le is the more accurate and powerful striker. Eventually, Le’s power and ability to work the legs and body will wear Silva down, and Le will capitalize for the T/KO victory.

Prediction:  Cung Le via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Featherweight bout:  Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles

Odds: (-275 Faber /+215 Bowles )

Betting Pick: Bowles

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The semi-main event is a big showdown between former WEC champions, as former Featherweight champ “The California Kid” Urijah Faber will take on ex-Bantamweight king Brian Bowles. This is a big match up between two of the top figures in the 135 pound title picture, and the winner will be putting himself in a great position for another crack at Dominick Cruz’s belt. Both of these guys are versatile, dynamic fighters with skills on their feet and on the ground, so this should be an exciting and competitive bout,especially with so much on the line.

Brian Bowles is one of the most dangerous Bantamweight fighters in the world, with his only professional loss coming to current divisional king Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz. Bowles is an extremely complete fighter with heavy hands, great technical boxing, solid take downs, and dangerous submissions. He is fast, athletic, and versatile, which makes him difficult to defend against and makes him adept at exploiting any mistake. Most importantly, Bowles is a prolific finisher, having only gone the distance once. He can finish fights from any position at anytime, and he has spectacular technique so he doesn’t give his opponents many openings.

“The California Kid” Urijah Faber, the former WEC Featherweight champion, is in a similar position to Bowles. He is clearly one of the top Bantamweights in the world, but he has already lost to the champion. This is an important fight for him, because you know that he wants a rubber match with Cruz and another shot at becoming a two-division titlist. Faber is a great fighter with an extremely complete game. He has fast, crisp boxing with decent power, solid wrestling, and great submissions.

This is a very compelling match up between two legitimate title contenders. These guys have similar skill sets and similar fighting styles, and both guys are very aggressive, so this should be an exciting fight. Ultimately I think Bowles is a pretty attractive upset pick here. I think he has more punching power than Faber and better jiu-jitsu as well. This is going to be a close fight, and I think Bowles’ offensive tools are going to stifle Faber enough that Bowles can outpoint him for the decision win.

Prediction: Brian Bowles via Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…