UFC Welterweight bout:  BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Odds: (-150 Penn /+120 Diaz )

Betting Pick: Diaz

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In the main event of the evening, former two-division champion B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn will square off against former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Nick Diaz at 170 pounds. Diaz was originally scheduled for a shot at Georges St. Pierre’s Welterweight title, but was removed from the fight after failing to appear at two consecutive promotional appearances. Instead, he will fight Penn, who represents a very interesting stylistic matchup. These are arguably two of the best submission fighters in the world at 170 pounds, and both have extremely crisp and effective boxing. In many ways their styles mirror each other, which could either create a barnburner or a stalemate, so it’s interesting to see how this fight will play out.

B.J. “The Prodigy” Penn is one of two fighters that held two-division championships in UFC history. Using a mix of deadly jiu-jitsu from every position and fast, technical, accurate boxing, Penn carved out three separate title reigns for himself, twice in the Lightweight division and once at Welterweight. After a dominant second reign at 155 pounds, Penn ran into current champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar, who he was twice unable to best. In his last two fights at Welterweight, he looked very impressive, destroying rival Matt Hughes with strikes and then taking top contender Jon Fitch to a hotly contested draw that many observers felt he should have won. There is no denying Penn’s technical acumen, and he has put to rest the questions about his dedication and conditioning that plagued him throughout his career, but this fight presents a number of unique challenges. The most obvious disadvantage is that Penn is smaller, lighter, and has less reach than Diaz, which could prove problematic. Another is that Penn’s strengths are also Diaz’s strengths, so he can’t use his technical prowess to exploit holes in Diaz’s game. He is going into a fight against a bigger guy with almost all of the same tools he has, and that is a dangerous situation for him. There is no question that Penn has the tools to win this fight, but he is going to have to fight smart if he wants to avoid getting bullied around by Diaz and confounded by his notoriously awkward punching style. One important advantage for Penn is going to be his wrestling, which is hugely underrated. Penn’s takedown defense is the stuff of legend, and he actually has pretty good takedowns himself, which means that against a mediocre wrestler like Diaz he will likely be able to control if, when, and how this fight goes to the ground. If Diaz starts to get the best of the striking exchanges, Penn could probably force a ground fight, a luxury Diaz doesn’t have.

Nick Diaz has had a very interesting career. Always known primarily for his grappling ability, Diaz washed out of UFC in his first stint with the company. After leaving the company, he shocked the world by submitting Takanori Gomi, who was at the time considered the best Lightweight in the world, only to have the win taken away when he tested positive for marijuana. After moving to 170 pounds, Diaz had a rough start, winning an awful decision against unheralded Mike Aina and then getting stopped on cuts by smaller boxer K.J. Noons. Since then, though, Diaz has put together an incredible ten fight winning streak, and has grown into one of the most feared strikers at 170 pounds. His ground game is just as good as it always was, but he now prefers to handle his opponents on the feet, and he has proven deadly proficient at it. What makes Diaz so dangerous is how deceptive his striking style is. Unlike most dominant strikers, Diaz doesn’t have much in the way of one-punch knockout power, but his punches are hard to defend because they come from strange angles and the damage tends to pile up fast, overwhelming his opponents. Diaz has fought a number of top-level strikers recently, and has absolutely embarrassed them all. The only real hole in Diaz’s game is his wrestling. He isn’t the most physical guy, his takedowns are mediocre, and his takedown defense is porous. On the feet against Penn, he will enjoy a major reach advantage, so it is unlikely that he will want to force a ground fight anyway, but if it does go to the ground Diaz is probably one of the few guys in the division who can hang with Penn.

This is a very tough fight to call, because these two guys have such similar strengths and fighting styles. In the end, though, I think the edge here has to go to Diaz. Both guys are effective strikers, but Penn’s more orthodox style is easier to defend against than Diaz’s awkward, looping punches, and Diaz will have the advantage in height and reach. On the ground, both guys are so talented that it would likely end up a stalemate, and neither guy is necessarily known for their takedowns despite their world-class ground games. Penn is extremely tough and has a great chin, so he should be able to weather three rounds with Diaz, but I think Diaz will land more significant strikes and earn enough points for the unanimous decision win.

Prediction: Nick Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

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