Author: Pat

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Odds: (+110 Kongo /-140 Mitrione )

Betting Pick: Mitrione

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Heavyweight bout, tough French kickboxer Cheick Kongo will square off against undefeated prospect Matt Mitrione. Kongo is a great striker, and by far the more experienced of the two, but Mitrione has devastating punching power and has improved dramatically every time he has stepped into the Octagon. Although Kongo is known for his powerful striking, it will be interesting to see how Mitrione handles his takedowns, which are severely underrated and will give Mitrione a challenge he hasn’t had to deal with yet in his professional career. On the feet, this one could promise some fireworks, because both of these guys have great technique and a surplus of power.

Matt Mitrione, a former NFL player who competed as part of The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights, is one of the most exciting young prospects in the Heavyweight division. Since appearing on the reality show, Mitrione has grown into a devastating striker who bruises his opponents with constantly improving technique and punching power. There is no question that Kongo is a step up in competition for him, but Mitrione has the kind of power that could trouble anyone if he starts connecting. Kongo is a great opponent to determine just where Mitrione stands at this phase of his career, because he is capable of testing “Meathead’s” chin and his takedown defense and ability to work off his back. On the feet, Mitrione is probably less technical than Kongo, but his punches pack more power for sure. Kongo, despite his reputation as a striker, has very good takedowns and dominant ground and pound, so Mitrione is going to have to be careful about overcommitting to his punching flurries and setting himself up for takedowns, but on the feet he will be in a great position to win this fight and keep moving up the Heavyweight ladder.

French kickboxer Cheick Kongo is a very tough and dangerous fighter with a well-rounded offensive skill set. He is known as a striker primarily, and he has very good technique and a lot of punching power, but he also has rather underrated wrestling and devastating ground and pound. Obviously, because of his kickboxing base, Kongo prefers to stand and trade, but when he needs to he is capable of forcing fights to the ground and committing extreme violence from top position. Against Mitrione, who hits like a truck but has never really had his takedown defense and ground game tested, Kongo would be wise to try and ground this fight and force Mitrione to work off his back, which would put him in an unfamiliar position, take away his primary strength as a fighter, and play into one of his own strengths at the same time.

This is a tough fight to call because so much depends on how Kongo chooses to approach this fight. Kongo clearly likes to stand and bang, and if he underestimates Mitrione’s power and tries to make this a standup war, he could wind up paying dearly. Kongo is a great striker, but Mitrione is the harder puncher for sure and one shot could spell the end of Kongo’s night. If Kongo forces a ground fight, though, I don’t see Mitrione being able to effectively work off his back and prevent Kongo from lambasting him with brutal ground and pound. Ultimately, I think Kongo will make the mistake of trying to box with Mitrione, and he will pay the price when Mitrione starts connecting with power punches for the T/KO victory.

Prediction: Matt “Meathead” Mitrione via second round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Mirko Cro Cop

Odds: (-290 Nelson /+245 Cro Cop )

Betting Pick: Nelson

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, PRIDE legend Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic will face off with well-rounded IFL veteran Roy “Big Country” Nelson. There was a time when Cro Cop struck fear into the hearts of every man he faced, but his best days seem like a distant memory at this point. He is still a solid technical striker, but the power and ruthlessness that made him such a nightmare in his prime are long gone, and he has looked completely overwhelmed in his last few fights. Nelson isn’t much to look at, but his excess body fat hides a surprisingly dangerous and complete fighting game, so Cro Cop is really going to need to show a lot of his old form if he wants to avoid a third straight loss and possible retirement.

Mirko Cro Cop, at his prime, was one of the most feared Heavyweights in the world. He destroyed his opponents in violent fashion, using sprawl and brawl tactics to keep fights standing and then overwhelming them with punches and kicks. He always had power in his hands, but his kicks were one of the most devastating tools in the entire sport. He famously summed it up with the phrase, “Right leg hospital, left leg cemetery.” Now, though, Cro Cop has lost more than a few steps. His striking power is a fraction of what it once was, he is substantially slower, and he no longer has the ruthless offense he once used to protect his always-fragile chin. He is still technically solid, but with no ground game to speak of, not much in the way of knockout power, and a glass jaw, he is not a real threat to beat a complete Mixed Martial Artist at this point.

Roy Nelson, who gained fame in the now-defunct IFL, breezed through The Ultimate Fighter and into the UFC. On first glance, Nelson does not look like a world-class athlete, but he is surprisingly spry for a man of his girth, he has great technique both standing on the ground, and he has found ways to make his bulk work for him, trapping his opponents in bottom position on the ground and smothering them while working them over with ground and pound and trying for submissions. Nelson’s jiu-jitsu from the top is excellent, his positional control is hard to overcome, and he has one-punch knockout power on the feet. His cardio is surprisingly good for a guy his size, but he is still toting around a lot of weight, and if this fight goes into the later rounds he might find himself wearing out pretty badly, so he will want to be aggressive and capitalize on an aging Cro Cop’s weakness before that becomes an issue.

Cro Cop is a ghost of his former self, and I don’t really see a way for him to win this. Nelson has a solid chin, and at this point is probably the better striker of the two. There is absolutely no question that Nelson can take Cro Cop down at this point, and on the ground this is as one-sided as it could be. I think Nelson will land some punches, take Cro Cop down, and submit him fairly easily.

Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson via second round arm-triangle choke.

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