Author: Pat

UFC Bantamweight Championship bout:  Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

Odds: (-525 Cruz / +325 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Cruz

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In the main event of the evening, Bantamweight champion Dominick “The Dominator” Cruz will look to defend his title against streaking contender Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Cruz is on a ridiculous nine fight winning streak against top-level competition, and in his last outing avenged the only loss of his professional career against former 145 pound champion Urijah Faber. Johnson is also riding a nice win streak, with quality wins over Damacio Page, Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto, and former champ Miguel Torres, but if he wants to unseat Cruz he is going to need the best performance of his young career. Cruz doesn’t always have the most exciting fights, but he is extremely effective at neutralizing his opponents and keeping them from getting any offense going, so Johnson is going to need to be very aggressive to try to keep Cruz from imposing his will and making this into his kind of fight.

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson is a very dangerous and versatile young fighter who has fought his way into title contention through some very tough opponents. After dropping his first WEC bout, Johnson has put together a very solid four fight winning streak, using his mix of solid boxing, decent wrestling, and effective submissions to climb through the 135 pound ranks. Johnson isn’t a particularly overwhelming fighter in terms of offense, but he has a very complete game, puts it all together well, and rarely makes huge mistakes. Against Cruz, his lack of experience could be problematic, as Cruz is an extremely seasoned veteran who is excellent at making opponents fight his kind of fight. Against Miguel Torres, Johnson escaped with a decision despite spending most of the fight on his back. If he lets Cruz dictate pace and position like that, he is not going to be so lucky.

Dominick Cruz is easily the most dominant Bantamweight on the planet right now. Since being submitted by Urijah Faber in 2007, Cruz has won 9 in a row against all the best 135 pounders in the world, including a domination of Faber in his last fight. Cruz isn’t always the most compelling fighter to watch, but there is no denying his effectiveness. He is a very solid boxer with good wrestling and a good ground game. No one will ever accuse him of being a prolific finisher, but he controls the action in his fights and keeps his opponents from mounting any offense with his stifling style. He doesn’t beat his opponents down, he just makes it impossible for them to beat him down while he steadily scores points and secures victories.

I think that Cruz is a bad matchup for anyone. The only type of fighter who is going to beat him is someone who is superlative at one thing and capable of imposing his will and forcing his own gameplan. Johnson is a very talented young fighter, but he lacks the one dominant tool it is going to take to beat Cruz. This fight should go like most of Cruz’s other fights, with Cruz stifling Johnson’s offense, dictating the pace and positioning of the fight, and scoring enough points to earn the decision win.

Prediction:  Dominick Cruz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve

Odds: ( Barry / Struve )

Betting Pick:  Barry

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In what has the makings of a very exciting bout, skilled strikers Patrick Barry and Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve will duke it out in the Heavyweight division. Both of these guys have great punching, but Struve also brings a ridiculously long reach and world-class jiu-jitsu to the table while Barry is the tougher, more powerful puncher and has a substantially better chin. If Barry can keep this fight standing, he should be able to wade through Struve’s long reach and batter him on the inside, but Struve will utterly dominate Barry if this fight makes it to the ground, so this should be an exciting and competitive affair.

Patrick Barry is a tough-as-nails slugger with dynamite power in his hands and solid kicks to go along with it. His style is somewhat one-dimensional, and he doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling or a ground game, but he is a powerful striker who can withstand a huge amount of punishment to land his haymakers. Against Struve he will be giving up a tremendous amount of reach, but his chin is very good which should allow him to eat a few shots to close the distance and bully the wiry Dutchman around on the inside. In a purely standup affair, the advantage goes to Barry despite Struve’s sizable reach advantage. The most important thing for Barry is to not let this fight wind up on the ground under any circumstances, because if it does Struve’s hugely superior jiu-jitsu will be the end of him very quickly.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is a skilled Dutch kickboxer who is very worthy of his nickname. A long, rangy, lanky fighter, Struve has very long reach and good striking technique. Unlike many skilled strikers, especially in the Heavyweight division, Struve brings world-class submissions to the table as well. Struve’s long, lanky frame is one of his biggest strengths and also his biggest weaknesses. His height and reach allow him to land shots from far out, but they also make him easily to physically control once guys get inside his range, and he is not a very physically strong fighter at all. Although Struve is a devastating striker, he has a much worse chin than Barry and in a pure kickboxing match he would be playing with fire. His best bet would be to try and force this fight to the ground and work his submission game, but to do that he is going to put himself in peril of eating a power punch and getting put to sleep.

This is a tough fight to call, but I think the edge has to go to Barry. Struve is far better on the ground, but he prefers to use his kickboxing, and Barry throws harder punches and has a better chin. For Struve to secure takedowns he is going to have to overpower a stronger guy with a lower center of gravity or try to get in close to clinch, which plays right into Barry’s strengths. I don’t see Struve being able to keep Barry at bay with his jab well enough to prevent Barry from bullying him around on the inside and working him over with power punches, and eventually Struve won’t be able to handle the damage. Barry by T/KO.

Prediction:  Pat Barry via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…