Author: Pat

UFC Heavyweight Title Fight:  Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

Odds:  (-500 Dos Santos / +350 Mir )

Betting Pick:  Dos Santos

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In the main event of the evening, newly-crowned UFC Heavyweight Champion Junior “Cigano” dos Santos will face a stern challenge in his first title defense as he faces off against former Heavyweight champ Frank Mir.  Dos Santos’ striking is superlative in every way.  His speed, technique, and power are all unmatched in the Heavyweight division, and no one he has faced has been able to withstand the punishment he can dole out with his hands.  Mir, though, is easily one of the Heavyweight division’s most versatile fighters, with dangerous punching power of his own and the most effective submission game in the division.  Dos Santos has never had to face an opponent with as many tools or as many ways to finish fights as Mir has, so this is a very tough test for him in his first attempt at defending his title. There is no doubt that, as dangerous as Mir’s heavy-handed punching can be, dos Santos will eat him alive if this fight plays out largely on the feet, but “Cigano” has yet to have his ground game sorely tested, and if Mir can find a way to get him on his back he is going to be in a world of trouble, which makes this a very compelling main event.

Frank Mir, the former UFC Heavyweight champion, has had one of the most interesting career arcs in the history of the sport.  He cemented himself as UFC’s premier Heavyweight with his potent ground game before seeing his career, and his life, nearly cut short by a brutal motorcycle accident.  Slowly but surely, though, he worked his way back up to the top of the ladder, and grew into a formidable striker while he was doing it.  Now, he is one of the UFC’s most dangerous Heavyweights, able to finish fights with his vastly improved boxing and his world-class submissions, which are dangerous from a whole host of positions.  The only notable hole in Mir’s game is his wrestling, which was never very good and got even less effective when he suffered his back and leg injuries.  On the ground, Mir is more than a match for anyone in the world, but he is not overly effective at forcing fights to the mat, and tends to be satisfied with standing and boxing with his opponents instead of forcing the issue.  Against dos Santos, that strategy would be reckless in the extreme, and Mir is going to have to find a way to get himself out of “Cigano’s” line of fire.

There is no question whatsoever that Junior dos Santos is the most prolific striker in the history of the UFC’s Heavyweight division. His punching is fast, pinpoint accurate, and utterly devastating in its power.  Since arriving in the UFC, he has completely demolished everyone in his path.  He has continually stepped up in competition, and he has handled those steps up easily.  Mir, though, represents a new sort of challenge for dos Santos.  The only professional loss dos Santos ever suffered was by submission, and his ground game has yet to be tested in his UFC career.  If he has to work off his back against Mir, he is going to find himself in a huge amount of trouble.  If his mentor, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, couldn’t stop Mir from submitting him, I really don’t like dos Santos’ chances.

This is a very interesting matchup.  Mir, although he is known as a grappler, also has very powerful striking, and dos Santos trains with the Nogueira brothers, which means he almost certainly has more of a ground game than he has shown.  That said, there is no question to me that dos Santos will destroy Mir in a standup fight and Mir will make dos Santos tap if this fight plays out on the ground for any period of time.  The question, then, becomes whether or not Mir has what it takes to force dos Santos to his back before he gets pasted.  My best guess would be no.  If skilled wrestlers like Cain Velasquez and Roy Nelson couldn’t ground dos Santos, I don’t think Mir is going to be able to either.  Mir has shown a willingness to stand and trade with strikers, and usually he is good enough to hold his own, but dos Santos is on another level and it is only a matter of time before Mir gets caught and put to sleep.  Dos Santos by T/KO.

Prediction:  Junior Dos Santos by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

Odds:  (-400 Velasquez / +300 Silva )

Betting Pick:  Velasquez

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In the semi-main event, former UFC Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will look to rebound from his crushing loss to Junior dos Santos against former Strikeforce Heavyweight king Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. While both of these guys are coming off disappoint losses, with Silva having dropped his last fight against Strikeforce GP winner Daniel Cormier, there is no doubt that they are both world class Heavyweights with dangerous skill sets.  Both of these guys are quite versatile, with dangerous striking power and solid ground games.  They are dissimilar, though, in that Silva relies on big shots, smothering ground control, and effective submissions while keeping a relatively plodding pace.  Velasquez, on the other hand, relies on superior speed and an aggressive pace, which his cardio conditioning allows him to keep up for as long as he needs to.  This is Silva’s first trip to the big show, and with more Strikeforce Heavyweights bound to be debuting soon, this is going to be a very crowded division at the top.  With that in mind, a win here is absolutely necessary for both guys if they want to maintain a spot in the division’s upper echelon.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva was one of Strikeforce’s premier Heavyweights for years, and he will now attempt to parlay that success into the UFC.  Silva is a very impressive physical specimen, with great height, reach, and bulk.  Technically he is just as impressive, with very heavy hands to go along with a smothering wrestling and top control game.  His boxing technique is not overly fast, but it is technically sound and his punches pack a wallop.  In addition, Silva is a notoriously tough fighter who has fought good competition and only been finished twice as a professional.  His ability to rearrange opponents’ facial features with punches, take them down effectively, and wear them out with top control and thudding ground and pound make him an extremely tough nut to crack.  The only real holes in his game are his chin, which can be exploited by very powerful strikers capable of preventing takedowns and beating him to the punch, and his relative heaviness on his feet, which makes him slightly immobile.  Against Velasquez, who is brutally fast and a very accomplished wrestler, both of those could be quite problematic for him.

Cain Velasquez, who just relinquished his UFC Heavyweight title to Junior dos Santos, is nevertheless one of UFC’s most dynamic and explosive Heavyweights.  A former NCAA All-American, Velasquez is clearly an accomplished wrestler, but he also has devastating striking to back up his grappling prowess.  As good a wrestler as he is, Velasquez tends to prefer to rely on his standup, which is extremely formidable.  He has arguably the fastest hands in the Heavyweight division and is a supremely conditioned athlete, which allows him to maintain a breakneck pace from bell to bell.  Junior dos Santos showed in their last fight that his chin can be exploited, and Silva does have powerful punching, but one loss to the best Heavyweight striker in the world is not enough for me to say that he has a glass jaw. Still, Silva has knockout power in both hands and is adept at controlling opponents from top position, so Velasquez is going to have to be careful not to give anything away here if he wants to avoid a second consecutive loss.

Stylistically, I think this matchup heavily favors Velasquez.  Both of these guys have knockout power, good wrestling, and effective ground control, but I think Cain’s vastly superior hand speed is going to be the difference-maker here.  Their wrestling should cancel each other out, and both guys are generally content to stand and trade.  I think Cain will routinely beat Silva to the punch, though, and when you have two guys who can both be knocked out and can both throw knockout punches, that will make all the difference.  Velasquez by T/KO in the later rounds.

Prediction:  Cain Velasquez by third round T/KO.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

Odds:  (-225 Nelson / +175 Herman )

Betting Pick:  Nelson

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In one of the many Heavyweight showdowns being featured, heavy-handed veteran Dave Herman will meet Ultimate Fighter winner Roy “Big Country” Nelson in a matchup of two guys with serious striking prowess.  Both of these guys have heavy hands and a willingness to let them go, but Herman is going to have to deal with Nelson’s wrestling, top control, and submission game as well.  Herman is the scarier of the two in terms of raw punching power, but Nelson has power of his own and is deceptively athletic considering his keg-like frame.

Dave Herman, a veteran of Sengoku and EliteXC, is a very heavy-handed and dangerous striker who has been around the sport for a long time. While he does have some submissions, he is primarily a striker who tends not to use wrestling or grappling expect as a last resort. Against Nelson, a legitimate submission fighter, he would be foolish in the extreme to try and fight on the ground, because if he gets a takedown stuffed or gets swept, he is going to get destroy by Nelson’s top control game.  If he can keep this fight standing, though, he always has a good chance to knock out anyone he is fighting, because his punching is seriously formidable.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson does not look like a prototypical fighter, but there is no way to deny his effectiveness.  He may not be one of the best in the world at any one thing, but he has powerful boxing, solid takedowns, good top control, powerful ground and pound, and effective submissions.  He is also extremely tough, having fought very good competition for years and only being finished once.  The biggest problem with Nelson’s game tends to be his gameplanning.  Anyone who has watched him for any period of time will tell you that his best work comes when he forces a ground fight and uses his bulk to control opponents from top position, but he tends to get too involved in standing and trading shots with his opponents, which has not worked out very well for him recently.

This is a tough fight to call, only because Nelson is so unpredictable.  If he fights smart and works for takedowns, he has more than enough tools to control Herman utterly on the ground.  If he obliges Herman in a standup fight, though, all bets are off.  Herman has good striking technique and a ton of power, so if Nelson tries to box him he is going to be inviting trouble.  In the end, though, I think the safe bet is Nelson and his superior versatility.  Herman, as always, has a puncher’s chance, but I think Nelson just has too many ways to win this fight, and should be able to control the action for a unanimous decision victory.

Prediction:  Roy Nelson by Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Heavyweight bout:  Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson

Odds:  (-130 Struve /+100 Johnson )

Betting Pick:  Struve

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, “Big” Lavar Johnson, coming off the biggest win of his career against Pat Barry, will look to keep the momentum going against rangy Dutchman Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. Johnson showed against Barry that he not only has spectacular striking and power, he is an extremely resilient fighter who is capable of surviving a tough spot. Struve, though, represents a tough challenge in that he not only has great striking technique; he is one of the Heavyweight division’s most prolific submission grapplers. Johnson was in big trouble in his last fight when Barry tripped him with ease and came close to securing a Kimura. If he finds himself on his back against Struve trying to fight off submission attempts, he is unlikely to have as much success this time.

“Big” Lavar Johnson is a prototypical Heavyweight bruiser. He has a huge, bulky frame and every punch he throws has malicious intent. Johnson has devastating punching power and when he smells blood, he goes in for the kill. There isn’t a lot else to his game, though. He doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling, and his grappling prowess is limited to put it mildly. Granted, he did escape Barry’s Kimura attempt, but the fact that he even allowed Pat Barry to take him down and get that close to submitting him says wonders. Luckily for Johnson, Struve’s chin is notoriously spotty, and Johnson has more than enough power to put him to sleep if he can land big power punches. It is vitally important for Johnson to keep this fight standing, though, because it will likely only take one takedown for Struve to finish this fight on the ground.

Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve is an extremely versatile and dangerous fighter offensively, but he is also something of a glass cannon. Struve’s height and reach give him unique advantages against most of his opponents, and he uses them well to keep opponents on the end of his accurate, fast-handed punching. In addition, Struve has a spectacular submission game and, unlike a lot of other Heavyweight grapplers, is very confident working off his back. The biggest problem Struve has is that his chin is notoriously weak. Against Johnson, he would be really unwise to stand and trade, because Johnson has more than enough power to put him down with a single haymaker. On the ground, though, Struve has more than enough to finish Johnson with relative ease. If he fights smart and tries to take Johnson down, he will be in a great position to pull off another win.

This is an interesting matchup in that both fighters are uniquely positioned to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses. Struve’s biggest problem is his chin, and Johnson has enough power to exploit that weakness. Johnson, for his part, struggles any time a fight is not a pure boxing match, and Struve’s submissions will likely prove way too much for him to handle if this fight goes to the ground. The question, then, becomes whether or not Struve can take this fight to the ground. In his last fight, Johnson found himself caught fairly easily by a trip takedown from Barry, and Struve’s long limbs and lanky frame are perfectly equipped to set that up. If Struve can use his reach and frame to clinch Johnson up and trip him to the ground, I don’t think he will have much trouble locking up an arm or taking Johnson’s back and securing a choke. Ultimately, as tough as Johnson is, I think his lack of versatility will be his undoing. I expect Struve to stay out of the way of his punches, use the clinch to neutralize him, and take him down. From there, the submission is academic.

Prediction:  Stefan Struve by first round rear naked choke.

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