Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman

Odds: (- Johnson / Brenneman )

Betting Pick:  Johnson

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In a featured Welterweight matchup, up and comer Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman will look to keep his winning streak alive against tough, physical wrestler Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Johnson is a massive physical specimen for the Welterweight division, and has the offensive tools and raw physical strength to be one of the most dominant fighters in the division, but he has shown time and again that once a fight starts to go against him he begins to fall apart, and he is very prone to making big mistakes. If Brenneman wants a win here he is going to have to find a way to weather Johnson’s power and aggression while waiting for a mistake he can capitalize on.

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is probably better suited to the Middleweight division due to his massive size, and he has had trouble making it down to 170 in the past, but his massive size does give him an advantage against other Welterweights. Johnson is a very heavy-handed boxer with good wrestling who uses his size and strength very well to control his opponents. Johnson’s problem is that if he is losing in any way, be it on the feet or in the wrestling, he tends to fold under pressure. He is so used to using his size to dominate opponents and controlling fights that when the tables get turned he does not react well at all. Johnson will enjoy a size and strength advantage against Brenneman and is also probably a better wrestler and striker as well, he just has to be steady, keep the pressure on, and avoid making any mistakes on the ground that might wind up with him getting submitted.

Charlie “The Spaniard” Brenneman is coming off a huge upset win over tough wrestler Rick “Horror” Story. Brenneman was able to outstrike Story and neutralize his wrestling while earning himself the decision win. If he wants to keep his winning streak alive, he is going to have to do much the same thing to Johnson. Johnson is the bigger and stronger fighter, so Brenneman is going to have to find a way to prevent himself from being put on his back while utilizing his speed advantage on the feet to beat Johnson to the punch and keep himself out of trouble. He has the tools to win this fight, but he is going to need a flawless game plan and perfect execution if he wants to overcome his disadvantages.

I think this is going to be a pretty rough fight for Brenneman. Johnson has weaknesses that can be exploited, but Brenneman is not a particularly overpowering fighter, and he is going to have trouble preventing Johnson from imposing his will and bullying him around. Brenneman will make it a fight, but Johnson should be able to outstrike and outwrestle him en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Anthony Johnson via Unaninmous Decision.

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UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout:  Jon Jones vs. Rampage Jackson

Odds: (-500 Jones /+350 Jackson )

Betting Pick: Jones

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In the main event of the evening, former Light Heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson will look to regain his title against dominant young champion Jon “Bones” Jones. This has all the makings of a very competitive fight. Both of these guys can throw bombs, both can wrestle, and if a foil exists for Jones’ freakish athleticism, it is Jackson’s years of experience fighting the best in the world on two continents. Still, Jones has made some pretty great fighters look like clowns, so Jackson will have to overcome one of his toughest obstacles if he wants to reclaim his belt.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson has been one of the best Light Heavyweights in the world for years. He is a very skilled wrestler who likes to let his hands go, and he has a surplus of punching power and throws huge haymakers to great effect. He doesn’t really have much in the way of submissions, but his brute force method of escaping submission attempts has proven quite effective for him. This is going to be a tough matchup for Ramapge stylistically. Against Rashad Evans, Jackson was unable to dictate position against the smaller Evans because of Evans’ superior speed and wrestling. He is going to have his hands full trying to control Jones, who is as good a wrestler as Rashad, just as fast, and substantially larger and more dangerous. If Jackson wants to leave with Jones’ belt, he is going to need a career performance and to put every part of his game together perfectly.

The champion, Jon “Bones” Jones, has enjoyed a meteoric rise to the top of the Light Heavyweight division. The only loss of his professional career was a DQ against Matt Hamill in a fight he utterly dominated from open to close. Jones has never even come close to losing a fight, and every time he steps into the Octagon he seems to have improved dramatically. His reach is one of his most important weapons, and no one in the division can match it. He has devastating punching power and very fast hands, and his ability to hit guys from halfway across the octagon makes him someone to truly fear. His wrestling is also extremely good, both with shoot takedowns and from the clinch, and on the ground he has devastating ground and pound and very good submissions. He doesn’t seem to have many holes in his game despite his relative lack of experience, and his physical dominance can hardly be overstated.

Quinton Jackson is still one of the best Light Heavyweights in the world, but Jones is a whole new breed of fighter. Stylistically they are similar in that they are wrestlers who like to throw punches, but I think Jones is the better striker, the better wrestler, better on the ground, and physically superior. Rampage will make it a fight for sure, but in a five round fight Jones just has too many weapons for Rampage to last. Eventually I think Jones will power Jackson to the ground and put him away with punches. Jon Jones retains his Light Heavyweight title by T/KO.

Prediction:  Jon Jones via third round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…