Author: Pat

UFC Welterweight bout:  Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Odds: (+350 Hughes /-500 Koscheck )

Betting Pick: Koscheck

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In the semi-main event, former Welterweight champion and future hall of famer Matt Hughes will face an extremely tough test in younger, fresher wrestler Josh Koscheck. Matt Hughes was once the most dominant Welterweight on the planet, and even as his career winds down he is still an effective wrestler with underrated submissions and technically sound boxing. Koscheck represents a huge challenge for him though, in that he is a superior striker, substantially younger and in a better place physically, and has the kind of wrestling to stymie Hughes’ offense. It is good to see Hughes still testing himself this late in his career, but he is going to need to show his old form if he wants to actually make this fight competitive.

Matt Hughes is a lock for the UFC Hall of Fame, and for years he defined what it meant to be a dominant champion. His best days are well behind him, but he is still a technically outstanding wrestler with a very good ground game and solid technique on the feet. That said, Hughes doesn’t want to engage in any standup fights with anyone, including Josh Koscheck. His game plan will be the one that made him such a legendary champion to begin with, and he will do his best to outwrestle Koscheck, control him from top position, and put the hurt on him with ground and pound. Whether or not he still has it in him to execute that game plan against a wrestler like Koscheck remains to be seen.

Josh “Kos” Koscheck was a dominant force on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and has carved out a very successful UFC career for himself. He has always been a dominant wrestler, but as his career has developed he has actually turned into a very effective kickboxer as well. Koscheck is a very dangerous young fighter who uses his versatility to impose his will on his opponents. The only time he tends to struggle is when his opponents outwrestle him. He gets frustrated and has trouble dealing with being put in disadvantageous positions. Against Hughes he will enjoy a sizable striking advantage, so he will be able to just use his wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing.

At this point, I don’t see a way for Hughes to beat Koscheck. Hughes’ bread and butter is his wrestling, but at this stage of their careers Koscheck is probably the better wrestler, and he is clearly more dangerous on the feet. If Hughes can’t get this fight to the ground reliably he is going to get boxed around on the feet, and I think Koscheck is the one who will be dictating position. I think Koscheck will land punches consistently and confound Hughes en route to a unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Josh Koscheck via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton

Odds:  (-450 Browne /+300 Broughton )

Betting Pick:  Browne

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In a big Heavyweight matchup, knockout artist Travis “Hapa” Browne will look to halt the winning streak of well-rounded Brit Rob “The Bear” Broughton. Broughton has an extremely veratile skill set, but Browne’s power punching takes people’s heads off, so Broughton is going to have to fight smart.

Travis “Hapa” Browne is an undefeated, heavy-handed up and comer in the Heavyweight division. He has finished every fight he ever won save one, and the only blemish on his record is a draw against French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. Browne is actually a very skilled grappler, but he doesn’t get many chances to showcase it because his punching is so overwhelming. He clearly prefers the standup fight, but he is more than capable of hanging on the ground. His well-rounded skill set and his huge 6′7″ frame make him an extremely formidable opponent for anyone in the world.

Rob “The Bear” Broughton, who trains with Britain’s famed Wolfslair Academy, is a very versatile Heavyweight. He has solid wrestling, powerful punching, and effective submissions. He hasn’t fought the best opponents, but he has gradually stepped up and continued to perform at a high level. Against Browne, he will probably want to put the bigger man on his back to neutralize his reach advantage and avoid his huge knockout punches.

I think Browne is going to be a tough nut to crack. Broughton is very good and has a lot of skills, but Browne’s punching power is just so explosive, and coupled with his reach advantage and his massive size it makes him very difficult to deal with. Broughton does have a chance if he can put Browne on his back and keep him there, but I don’t think Browne will give him the chance. Browne by T/KO.

 Prediction:  Travis Browne via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout:  Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt

Odds: (-340 Rothwell /+260 Hunt )

Betting Pick:  Rothwell

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In the opening bout of the evening, former IFL Heavyweight champion “Big” Ben Rothwell will square off with former K-1 World Grand Prix winner Mark Hunt. Rothwell has had a rough time in the UFC so far, but he is a tough, versatile fighter and a very large guy. Hunt has won only one MMA fight since 2006, but he is so huge and has so much punching power that you always have look for the knockout in any fight he is in.

Ben Rothwell was the best Heavyweight in the now-defunct IFL, using his toughness and versatility to dominate his opponents. His UFC debut was very disappointing, as he was mangled by Cain Velasquez in an underwhelming showing, but he won a solid decision over veteran Gilbert Yvel in his last outing. Rothwell is very well-rounded, with knockout power in his hands, good wrestling, and effective submissions from top position. He isn’t the best in the world at anything, but his skill set is very complete and he doesn’t have any massive weaknesses.

Mark Hunt, who once won K-1’s World Grand Prix, is obviously an extremely formidable fighter. He isn’t much of an MMA fighter, since he lacks any real wrestling or submissions, but he does have very heavy hands, an iron chin, a huge frame. There is no question about what Hunt will try to do here, which is land huge power punches as early as possible before he gasses out. If he gets taken down he is in trouble, because he has no ability to work off his back whatsoever.

The only fighters Mark Hunt can beat at this point are guys willing to stand right in front of him, not move around, and not try to take him down. No one questions Hunt’s ability to knock people out, but he is too fat, too old, and too slow to be able to rely only on his punching against guys with complete offensive skill sets. I think Rothwell will take Hunt down and work him over completely. Rothwell by T/Ko.

Prediction:  Ben Rothwell via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi

Odds: (-280 Diaz /+220 Gomi )

Betting Pick:  Diaz

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In a featured Lightweight bout, Nate Diaz returns to 155 pounds to face off against former PRIDE champion Takanori Gomi. Both of these guys have had mixed results in UFC, and Diaz is coming off two straight losses at Welterweight, but both have dangerous skills and a propensity for very exciting fights, so this could be one of the better fights of the night. Both of these guys have versatile skill sets, but Gomi is the more dangerous striker while Diaz has the more effective ground game, so this is a great style matchup as well.

Nate Diaz has had mixed results in UFC, and is riding a two fight losing streak at 170 pounds, but he is an extremely dangerous fighter, especially at Lightweight. He doesn’t have much in the way of one-punch knockout power, but like his brother Nick he is very good at using his unorthodox striking to wear down opponents. He isn’t the best wrestler, but he does have good judo throws from the clinch and on the ground he is extremely effective from every position. He has submissions from his back and from top position and an excellent ability to sweep and escape disadvantageous positions. He is not a very physical fighter, and can be overpowered, but he has a dangerous offensive skill set and is capable of competing with the best in the world, as he proved when he was robbed blatantly in his fight against title challenger Gray Maynard.

Takanori Gomi was the most dominant Lightweight in PRIDE for years, exciting audiences and destroying opponents with his dynamic striking attack. Gomi is actually also a pretty good wrestler with effective submissions, but by far his best work is done on the feet. There is no question that he has more punching power than Nate Diaz, but he is going to have to be wary of Diaz’s speed. He is also a better wrestler than Diaz probably, but taking this fight to the ground would be a huge mistake. Gomi is going to need to make this a straight up boxing match, avoiding the ground game and the clinch and exploiting his power advantage.

I think this is going to be a tough fight for Gomi. Diaz’s submission advantage nullifies Gomi’s ability to take the fight to the ground, and while Gomi is the more powerful puncher, Diaz is the quicker and more technical of the two on the feet. Diaz’s ability to utilize his reach advantage, beat Gomi to the punch, and maybe score trip takedowns and work from top position should be enough to help him earn the unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Nate Diaz via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here