Author: Pat

UFC Middleweight bout:  Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald

Odds: (-300 Belcher /+230 MacDonald )

Betting Pick: Belcher

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In a featured Middleweight bout, well-rounded veteran Alan “The Talent” Belcher will look to overcome talented Canadian grappler Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald. MacDonald is not the most consistent fighter in the world but he lives up to his nickname, using his athleticism to control guys on the ground and look for submissions. Belcher is definitely the better-rounded of the two, but he doesn’t have an answer for MacDonald’s submissions so he is going to need to fight carefully and try to get this done on the feet.

Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald is a very rudimentary striker, but his ground game is excellent. He is quick and strong, and he has very effective wrestling and extremely good submissions. If he can’t get Belcher down early and keep him there, he is going to be in for a long night. He will be outboxed handily by Belcher, so he is going to need to enforce his own gameplan from the opening bell if he wants to leave with a victory.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher is currently riding a two fight win streak, with an impressive submission win over Patrick Cote in his last bout. Cote isn’t one of the most effective fighters in the world at any one thing, but he doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game and he puts it all together very well. He has heavy hands, solid wrestling, and effective submissions. Against MacDonald he would be wise not to test his ground game too much and instead try to keep this fight standing where he will have an advantage in both technique and power.

I think Belcher is the better-rounded of the two, and his ability to control the fight standing and frustrate MacDonald’s takedown attempts should be enough to earn him a unanimous decision. MacDonald will make it a fight, but Belcher is capable of fighting in more places than MacDonald is, and in the end it will be too much. Belcher by decision.

Prediction: Alan Belcher via Unanimous Decision.

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UFC Featherweight bout:  Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins

Odds: (-210 Koch /+170 Brookins )

Betting Pick: Koch

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In what has the makings of a very competitive 145 pound bout, Erik “New Breed” Koch will square off against Jonathan Brookins, who is recently moved down from 155. Both of these guys have excellent ground games and effective submissions, but Koch is the more experienced of the two and has fought substantially better opponents. If Brookins wants a successful Featherweight debut, he is going to need an excellent game plan and a mistake-free performance.

Jonathan Brookins is riding the momentum of a successful UFC debut, and looks to continue his winning streak at his more natural weight of 145. Brookins, who fights out of Gracie Barra Orlando, is a very slick and effective grappler with dangerous submissions. His standup is a work in progress, but his ground game is extremely solid. The big question mark for Brookins is how he will handle the weight cut and how he will deal with a fairly large step up in competition. Koch is much more seasoned than Brookins, and fighting a more experienced guy in a new weight class could present a whole host of problems for Brookins.

Erik “New Breed” Koch is a very dangerous and well-rounded fighter. His base is grappling, and he is very effective on the ground, but he has also grown into a dynamic striker who can hurt you with all four of his limbs. Unlike Brookins, Koch has fought quite a few top-level opponents and acquitted himself very well. He has never been finished and has only lost once in his thirteen fight career. Against Brookins Koch would do well to press his striking advantage instead of taking this fight to the ground and playing to Brookins’ strength.

I don’t think Brookins is going to have an answer for Koch’s superior striking and experience. On the ground this could go either way, but I think Koch has the tools to keep Brookins from taking him down, and on the feet he is the more dangerous of the two by far. Eventually he will overwhelm Brookins with punches for the stoppage. Koch by T/KO.

Prediction: Erik Koch via second round T/KO.

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