Author: Pat

UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

Odds:  (-280 Rua /+220 Griffin )

Betting Pick:  Rua

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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The first time these two met, Griffin shocked the world by controlling a large portion of the action and eventually forcing Shogun to submit to a rear naked choke. Shogun has looked more like his old self since then, despite a loss to Jon Jones in his last outing. This has all the makings of a very competitive bout, pitting Shogun’s dominant striking against Griffin’s well-rounded and underrated game.

Forrest Griffin is a huge success story, having parlayed a spot on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter all the way to a reign as Light Heavyweight champion. What is spectacular about Griffin is that, on paper, he doesn’t seem to have that impressive a skill set. His boxing is solid but not hugely powerful and his wrestling is solid but hardly world-class. Griffin has carved out his success through sheer will. Griffin has a ton of heart, great cardio, and a fairly solid chin. He also has a very underrated ground game, with relatively effective submissions and good positioning. Griffin can’t take a fight over with his offense consistently, but he can compete anywhere a fight goes and he never stops coming forward, which makes him an extremely dangerous opponent.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has been one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world for years. His striking is superlative, with very powerful boxing, dangerous kicks, and crushing Muay Thai in the clinch. On the ground, he has good submissions, but his takedown defense is not very good and he is not very effective working off his back. Against Griffin he is going to want to try and keep this fight standing, because Griffin always submitted him once and is the larger and stronger fighter.

This is a tough match to call. There is no question that Shogun is the superior striker, with better technique and more knockout power. Griffin is the better wrestler, and showed in their last fight that he can take Shogun down and control him on the ground. In the end, though, I think Shogun will even the score with Griffin. Griffin likes to stand and trade, and tends to throw caution to the wind, and I don’t think he has enough offense to stop an injury-free Shogun. I think Shogun will handily win the striking exchanges and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Noguera

Odds:  (-250 Schaub /+195 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Schaub

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, living legend Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira will square off against rising star Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub. Nogueira is a legend in the sport who has fought most of the best Heavyweights in the world, but years of brutal battles seem to have finally taken their toll on him physically. Schaub, for his part, is a ridiculous physical specimen, but lacks Nogueira’s experience. If Schaub wins, this very well might be the last time Nogueira ever fights in UFC, so if he wants to keep hold of his career, Nogueira is going to need to find a way to force this fight to the ground and work for submissions.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is easily one of the most legendary Heavyweights in the sport’s history. At his prime, Nogueira was renowned for his ability to weather storms before finding an opening and securing a submission. Now, though, it seems that all those brutal wars and all the years as a professional fighter have caught up with him. His submission skills are just as dangerous as they ever were, but he was never a prolific wrestler and his chin seems to have deteriorated. His boxing is fairly technically solid, but he has basically zero knockout power. More importantly, he has degenerating defense and can’t force fights to the ground. Against Schaub he might even need to resort to pulling guard just to avoid standing in front of power punches.

Brendan Schaub is one of the rising stars of the Heavyweight division. A massive, powerful Heavyweight with a huge surplus of punching power and solid wrestling, Schaub has all the tools to make it all the way to the top. The only question mark about Schaub is his chin, which was exploited by Roy Nelson in spectacular fashion, but against Nogueira he won’t have to worry about getting knocked out. Schaub’s strategy will be simple. He will try to deny Nogueira takedowns and overwhelm him with punches.

This is a horrible matchup for Nogueira. Schaub is not only significantly larger and stronger, he is a good enough wrestler to keep Nogueira from taking him down. On the feet, Nogueira has nothing for Schaub, and eventually Schaub will start connecting with power punches. Nogueira will only be able to take so many before he inevitably succumbs. Schaub by T/KO.

Prediction:  Brendan Schaub via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Lightweight bout:  Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza

Odds:  (+250 Pearson /-375 Barboza )

Betting Pick:  Barboza

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In what has the makings of a very competitive Lightweight bout, prolific Brazilian striker Edson Barboza Junior will put his unblemished record on the line against well-rounded Brit Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson. Barboza has blazed his way to an 8-0 professional record with truly devastating striking, but Pearson is very versatile and has a good ground game that could really test Barboza. Barboza may be better at striking than Pearson is at anything, but if Pearson can use wrestling and ground control to take Barboza off his game he could be well-positioned to add the first blemish to Barboza’s record.

Ross Pearson, a talented Brit who earned a spot in the UFC by winning the Lightweight division of the US vs. UK edition of The Ultimate Fighter, has a very well-rounded game. He is a decent boxer with some power in his hands, and his wrestling and submissions are both quite solid. Against Barboza his offensive grappling is going to be very important, because Barboza is the superior striker in terms of both technique and power. If Pearson wants to end Barboza’s winning streak, he is going to need to put him on his back early and often and score points from the top while working for submissions. In a standup fight he will inevitably be overwhelmed.

Edson Barboza has looked very impressive in winning the first eight bouts of his professional career. In his last fight, he stepped up in competition against Anthony Njokuani and handled him easily, winning by unanimous decision. Pearson represents another step up for him, but Barboza has the tools to succeed at a high level in Mixed Martial Arts. His striking is superlative, and he seems to have an effective ground game as well. His wrestling is a question mark, but he does have some submission prowess to go along with his dynamic striking. Against Pearson, or any other opponent really, he is going to want to keep this fight standing where he can exploit his advantage in power and technique.

Pearson is a step up for Barboza, but I think the Brazilian is ready. Pearson’s wrestling isn’t dominant enough that he is going to completely take over the fight, and Barboza is just too good standing. Barboza by T/KO.

Prediction:  Edson Barboza via first round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…