Author: Pat

Strikeforce Heavyweight Title Fight:  Josh Barnett vs. Daniel Cormier

Odds:  (-125 Barnett / -105 Cormier )

Betting Pick:  Barnett

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In the main event of the evening, former UFC Heavyweight champion Josh Barnett will square off against undefeated wrestling ace in Daniel Cormier in a big Heavyweight showdown. At this point, the closure of Strikeforce’s Heavyweight division seems inevitable, and a win here would go a long way toward establishing momentum heading into the UFC.
Barnett in particular really needs this win, because his histories of failed steroids test and well-publicized acrimony with UFC President Dana White probably aren’t working in his favor. Out of the ring issues aside, Barnett is one of the most versatile and dangerous Heavyweights in the world, and he is more than capable of testing Cormier in ways the young wrestler has not had to cope with yet.

Josh Barnett is, without a doubt, one of the most versatile Heavyweights in the world. Very few fighters, especially at Heavyweight, have his mix of deadly punching power, wrestling acumen, and fight-ending submissions. Barnett earned himself a UFC Heavyweight Title by destroying Randy Couture, but found his UFC career cut short by a failed steroid test. Later, when scheduled to face Fedor Emelianenko on an Affliction card, Barnett was tagged for steroids again, forcing the cancellation of the show. If Barnett wants to make a last push at proving that he belongs in the Heavyweight Top 10 he is going to need to come into this fight clean and with his takedown defense on point, because a loss here or another failed test would likely spell the end of his career. Barnett has the tools to beat Cormier standing on the ground if he can avoid getting controlled by Cormier’s wrestling, so as long as he fights mistake-free another big win is not unlikely.

Daniel Cormier is definitely one of the Heavyweight division’s most exciting young prospects. Undefeated as a professional, Cormier has used his illustrious amateur wrestling background and some heavy-handed boxing to steadily climb up the Heavyweight ranks. So far, Cormier has handled every step up in competition masterfully, culminating in a drubbing of Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in his last fight. Cormier has shown that he can hurt guys with his hands, but, more importantly, he has proven that he has the wrestling to put anyone he faces on their back. Silva, like Barnett, is an extremely accomplished submission grappler, and Cormier had no trouble whatsoever controlling him on the ground. Against Barnett he is going to have to couple that submission defense with smart standup, because no one he has had to face is as capable of ending fights no matter where they go.

This is a tough fight to call. Cormier has looked unstoppable so far, blasting his opponents with big power punches and planting them on the ground at will. That said, he hasn’t faced a striker or a grappler as proficient as Barnett, much less a guy who is that good at both. As good as Barnett is on the ground, though, I don’t like his chances if he has to work off his back underneath Cormier. If Barnett is going to win, he is going to have to do it with his superior striking skills, using his grappling to keep Cormier at bay so he can land punches. Ultimately, though, I think Barnett is just too experienced and too versatile for Cormier to deal with. Cormier has never faced anyone who could take a punch like Barnett, much less throw back as effectively as Barnett can. I don’t see Cormier being able to impose his will on Barnett, and as the fight goes on and Cormier’s energy begins to lag, I think Barnett will capitalize and ultimately catch him for the submission victory.

Prediction:  Josh Barnett by second round rear naked choke.

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Strikeforce Lightweight Title Fight:  Gilbert Melendez vs. Josh Thomson

Odds:  (-600 Melendez / +400 Thomson )

Betting Pick:  Melendez

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In the semi-main event, Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez will look to defend his belt against long-time rival Josh Thompson in a deciding rubber match.  These two have met twice before, with Thomson winning the first meeting and Melendez avenging the loss in their last bout.  Fight fans have been clamoring to see Melendez prove his worth against UFC’s packed Lightweight division for well over a year now, and Thomson seems like the last fight left for him in Strikeforce.  A win here will probably result in Melendez getting a shot at unifying the Strikeforce and UFC titles, but you know that Thomson would love to play spoiler, and he’s already proven that he has the tools necessary to upset Melendez.  These guys are both top 10 level Lightweights and there is a lot riding on this fight, so it should be very entertaining.

Josh “The Punk” Thomson is easily one of the most effective and stifling Lightweight grapplers in the world.  Thomson is experienced, well-rounded, and notoriously tough, having only been finished once in his professional career, all the way back in 2004 by Yves Edwards. Thomson’s standup is not his best attribute, but he has solid technique and decent punching power.  There is no question that Thomson’s best work is done on the ground.  He is a very effective wrestler with dominating top control and very good submissions as well.  Unfortunately, Melendez has grown into one of the division’s premier grapplers, a lesson Thomson learned the hard way in their last meeting, where he was unable to force Melendez to the ground and outboxed fairly easily.  If he wants to avoid losing the best of three series, Thomson is going to have to find a way to mix his takedowns in with his striking much more effectively, so that he can try to control Melendez from on top.  If he has to box with Melendez for extended periods or work off his back, he is in for a very long night.

Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez has firmly cemented himself as the world’s best Lightweight outside of the UFC.  Since losing his first fight against Thomson in 2008, Melendez has rattled off six straight wins and avenged both of his career losses.  What makes Melendez so scary is his ability to dominate opponents wherever a fight goes.  He is a supremely talented grappler, although he rarely wins by submission. He is very skilled at keeping wrestlers from taking him down by using his grappling defensively and just as good at forcing strikers onto their backs where he is out of danger.  There are no real holes in Melendez’s game, which means that he can force fights wherever his opponents are least comfortable.  Against Thomson, that will definitely mean he will try to keep this fight standing, where he will enjoy a sizable advantage in both technique and punching power.

In their last fight, Melendez completely nullified Thomson’s grappling and beat him up in the striking exchanges, and I don’t see any reason to expect this fight to go differently.  Thomson is still a top Lightweight capable of beating many of the top fighters in the division, but Melendez is the worst possible style matchup for him. “El Nino” can take away Thomson’s best tool, outpoint him on the feet easily, and if worse comes to worse he is capable of hanging with or even beating Thomson on the ground.  I don’t think anything about this fight is really in Thomson’s favor, and I expect Melendez to grind out a one-sided unanimous decision victory to retain his title.

Prediction:  Gilbert Melendez by Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bovad.Iv Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

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