Author: ryanpoli

Hector Lombard   vs.  Rousimar Palhares

His UFC debut was probably the biggest MMA disappointment of the year, but Lombard will be more motivated than ever to shut the media up with a stunning knockout finish. Lombard will have a greater chance of doing so against Palhares because he is as close to being one hundred percent jiu-jitsu, and zero striking, that an MMA fighter can be. There’s always the chance of being submitted if you’re fighting Palhares and he will hold on to a limb as if his life depended on it, but between his strength and his ground skills, Lombard will be able to prevent Palhares from locking up a submission. Look for Lombard to come out quickly in this fight and waste no time trying render Palhares unconscious on the canvas.

Robert Whittaker   vs.  Brad Scott

I doubt anyone will be picking Scott to pull off the upset in this fight. Whittaker scored two consecutive knockouts on The Ultimate Fighter, and this fight may see a third. Scott has showcased decent well rounded skills, but he doesn’t possess the striking, power of aggression that Whittaker does. To be blunt, Scott just isn’t on Whittaker’s level, and it will only be a matter of time until he crumbles under the Whittaker’s power and the ref will need to come to his rescue. Whittaker ends his fights quickly, so this fight shouldn’t go past the first round.

Norman Parke   vs.  Colin Fletcher

Both these fighters have similar skill sets, and for that reason, this fight will be close. Either one of these two talented lightweights could emerge victorious, but my edge goes to Fletcher. Based on the past fights of both fighters, I give a grappling edge to Fletcher as well as having a slight power advantage. The striking advantage can be argued either way, but I’m going with Fletcher mainly for his longer reach. “Freak Show” will use his length on the feet to do enough to get a decision win, but if the fight goes to the ground, don’t be surprised if he finished Parke via submission.

George Sotiropoulos   vs.  Ross Pearson

This is almost a perfect “striker vs. grappler” match up. No one will make the argument that Sotiropoulos has the best striking, or that Pearson has the better ground game, but the winner will be determined by whoever can implement their lesser skill more than the other fight. If Sotiropoulos’ striking is more impressive than Pearson’s ground game, which I think it will be, he will emerge victorious. Because Sotiropoulos’ ground game is so good, his striking goes unnoticed. He was successful in out striking Joe Stevenson, Kurt Pellegrino, and Joe Lauzon, while holding his own in the striking against expert kickboxer, Dennis Siver. With Sotiropoulos’ reach advantage, Pearson will have to work to get inside to land strikes, giving Sotiropoulos the opportunity to clinch and take Pearson down. It doesn’t matter how diligently Pearson has been working on his jiu-jitsu, once on the ground, Sotiropoulos will be in complete control. If Cole Miller was able to submit Pearson, then it should be even easier for Sotiropoulos to tap him with whatever submission he sees and opening for.

 
Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Nick Penner   vs.  Cody Donovan

After Anthony Perosh annihilated Penner in his UFC debut, Penner’s chances of winning look slim. His striking is considered to be his strongest attribute, but that isn’t saying much seeing Perosh connected more on the feet. I’ve scrutinized Perosh’s striking quite a bit, so obviously I’m nowhere near impressed with the striking of Penner. Donovan has crisp boxing that will be more than enough to handle the exchanges on the feet, and his grappling skills can put Penner in the same compromising positions that Perosh was able to do. He has fought and beaten bigger and stronger fighters outside of the weightclass, including a first round knockout of the world famous, Eric “Butterbean” Esch. With Donovan’s well rounded skills, I don’t see Penner can emerging victorious in this fight. Donovan will look to increase his chances of winning by closing the distance, and securing a takedown. Once the fight is on the ground, it’ll be only a matter of time until Donovan will submit Penner, or stop him via strikes.

Brendan Loughnane   vs.  Mike Wilkinson

There may be only twelve professional fights between these two TUF contestants, but those same twelve fights all have check marks in the win column. Loughnane was able to make it to the semifinals before being bested in a decision by Norman Parke, while Wilkinson made it to the semifinals, but had to withdrawal from the competition due to an eye injury he sustained while sparring. The fact that he was never actually defeated in the competition will motivate Wilkinson as he will try to prove that had it not been for a fluke injury, he could have won it all. Neither fighter has a significant advantage in the striking, but Loughnane is the harder puncher and Wilkinson can’t get complacent on the feet. Loughnane is most effective when he has top control on the ground and he looks to rain down punches and elbows, but he won’t be as successful on the ground as he was against Patrick Iodice, because he will be too busy fighting off Wilkinson’s submission attempts. If the fight hit’s the ground at all, my money is on Wilkinson to end the fight. He shouldn’t have any issue getting Loughnane down over and over to win a decision if he is unable to force the tap.

Ben Alloway   vs.  Manuel Rodriguez

Alloway’s striking is nothing to sneeze at, but it isn’t any better than the striking of Bola Omoyelle. Rodriguez was outclassed by Omoyelle on the feet for the majority of the first round, but Rodriguez eventually got close enough to use his jiu-jitsu and was able to submit Omoyelle with a north-south choke. Ultimately, if Rodriguez was able to overcome the precise striking of Omoyelle and submit him, then he should have no problem executing the exact same plan against Alloway. Alloway’s striking just isn’t enough to keep Rodriguez from getting a takedown, and Alloway will be no match for Rodriguez on the ground. Rodriguez is very skilled in his jiu-jitsu and it should only take him one round to get a hold of Alloway’s neck or limb.

Mike Pierce   vs.  Seth Baczynski

Baczynski has a significant reach advantage over Pierce, but I highly doubt he will be able to capitalize on the feet. Baczynski’s striking isn’t anything spectacular, in fact, when he knocked out Simeon Thoresen it was with the only punch he landed in the fight. Just moments before he connected with the punch, Joe Rogan was commenting on how Baczynski was clearing loosing on the feet. Just like every one of his fights, Pierce will be looking for the takedown and use his expert wrestling to control the fight. Baczynski’s ten submission wins are proof that he is aggressive with his jiu-jitsu and will look submit Pierce when the fight goes to the ground. With the exception of one submission via armbar, all of his submission wins have been some variation of choke. Because Pierce will put Baczynski on his back, the only submission that Baczynski has a chance of pulling off is a triangle choke, which I doubt he will be able to do. Pierce has never been submitted, despite a bout against jiu-jitsu expert, Carlos Rocha. Pierce will stifle the jiu-jitsu attempts with his expert wrestling, much like he did against Rocha, and he will cruise to an easy unanimous decision victory.

Igor Pokrajac   vs.  Joey Beltran

This seems like unnecessary step down in competition for Pokrajac. I realize that he was submitted by Vinny Magalhaes in his last fight, but prior to that, he fought and defeated Fabio Maldonado. If Pokrajac was able to over come the expert striking of Maldonado, then he should have no issue avoiding Beltran’s less technical punches. Beltran hasn’t beaten anyone above average skill level since his knockout victory over Houston Alexander in January of 2010. He was temporarily cut from the UFC in 2012 after loosing four out of five fights, and his loosing trend hasn’t changed since his return. His only credible attributes are his power, and his chin. The ability to take mass amounts of punish certainly won’t win him this fight, nor will I be holding my breath for him to knock Pokrajac out on the off chance that Beltran can land that one big shot. Pokrajac will be able to take Beltran down and control him every round. Beltran’s lack of ground skills will keep him from getting back to his feet, so Pokrajac will have ample time to look for a submission or stoppage. Even if Pokrajac is unable to finish the fight, he will earn himself a unanimous decision win.

Chad Mendes   vs.  Yaotzin Meza

As far as I’m concerned, Mendes is still the number two featherweight in the world. He has been Jose Aldo’s greatest challenge thus far, and I’m still convinced that had it not been for Aldo grabbing the fence, Mendes would’ve slammed him to the canvas and it could’ve been a whole different story. Meza has nearly the same number of wins by both submission and stoppage, so obviously, he has some diversity in his skills. It would appear that Meza prefers to go for chokes, specifically the guillotine, which is a submission that Mendes is quite proficient at himself. Cody McKenzie thought that he would catch Mendes with a guillotine, and that didn’t turn out so well, so a UFC newbie who is taking this fight on short notice will have the skills to tap Mendes. After watching Mendes finish McKenzie in thirty one seconds, he could very well finish Meza in similar fashion, but I’ll play it safe and take him winning a unanimous decision after dominating Meza for all three rounds.

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Mike Swick   vs.   Matt Brown

For being out of the fight game for two years, Swick had a good performance against DaMarques Johnson. His weight cut and all around preparation will be substantially better in this fight. Brown is a decent striker, but he knows he will loose a stand up war against Swick, so he will look to initiate the ground game in this fight. Brown has been successful in shutting down quick strikers before, such as, Stephen Thompson. The difference is that Swick has better defense on the ground than Thompson, and Brown will not pose a greater threat on the ground than DaMarques Johnson. Swick was taken down by Johnson, and Brown does poses the ability to do the same, but it’s much more likely that Swick will damage Brown on the feet with his fast hands rather than Brown will take Swick down and hold him there for all three rounds. Swick caught DaMarques Johnson early in their fight several times, and since Swick has a history of quick first round knockouts, I betting on him to do the same against Brown.

B.J. Penn   vs.   Rory MacDonald

Like every one of Penn’s fights, his cardio will be in question. When word first spread that Penn was visibly out of shape so close to the fight, no question I was picking MacDonald to win. However, the fight was postponed for two and a half months, and Penn had plenty of time to improve on his conditioning. After MacDonald’s fight against Che Mills, I was surprised how tentative and feeble he looked with his striking. Realizing this, MacDonald looked to take Mills down and finished him on the ground via ground and pound. Penn is known for having excellent boxing and great takedown defense, which will be a deadly threat to MacDonald if he is unsuccessful in getting Penn to the ground. Even if he can get Penn down, Penn is crafty off his back so MacDonald will need to be cautious of armbars, triangles, and any other creative maneuver Penn will thrown at him. I was extremely close to picking Penn in this fight, but MacDonald gets better with every fight and proved that he can overcome being in a compromising situation. He trains with one of the best fighters known to the sport, Georges St-Pierre, and he is incredibly well rounded in his skills. In the end, I have to side with MacDonald based on his performances against high level competition, such as, Mike Pyle, Nate Diaz and Carlos Condit. I foresee Penn slowing down after the first round, and when he does, MacDonald will secure a takedown and control him as Jon Fitch and George St-Pierre were able to. Penn isn’t easy to finish, his fight with Nick Diaz is proof of that, so the fight will go the distance, but it’ll be MacDonald who will get the decision win.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua   vs.   Alexander Gustafsson

I don’t like Shogun’s chances in this fight, and the betting odds seem to agree with me. Gustafsson has been impressive in every one of his wins, while Shogun has been more “hit or miss“. In his defense, his last three losses have been at the hands of fighters who are all top five in the division, but cardio, aggression, and an all around good performance has been a wildcard for Shogun in the UFC. Shogun is a black belt in jiu-jitsu and most likely won‘t look to stand toe to toe with Gustafsson. However, he’s no specialist in executing the takedowns needed to get this fight to the ground, especially against such a physically strong light heavyweight like Gustafsson. I have the utmost confidence that Gustafsson will keep this fight standing and use his considerable reach advantage and boxing to control the fight. You’re only as good as your last fight, and I wasn’t too impressed with Shogun’s considering it was against Brandon Vera. Shogun’s chin isn’t as strong as Thiago Silva’s so I’m predicting Gustafsson to finish Shogun in similar fashion that Jon Jones was able to do

Benson Henderson   vs.   Nate Diaz

Too many fans of Diaz are overestimating his chances of winning in this fight. They over exaggerate his striking, and although Diaz posses good boxing skills, he rarely utilizes any kicks, a technique that is a large part of Henderson’s offense. It would appear in his recent fights that Diaz has improved on his wrestling and takedown defense, but it won’t be enough to stop Henderson from taking him down at will. Henderson has some of the best submission defense in all of MMA, and it’s certainly good enough for him to avoid be submitted while in top control. The best chance that Diaz has of winning is finding a way to submit Henderson, and I just don’t see that happening. I don’t see Henderson finishing Diaz, but he will win a unanimous decision and retain his belt.

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

Michael Chiesa   vs.   Marcus LeVesseur

If it’s one skill LeVesseur possesses, it’s his wrestling. We’re talking about a man who went undefeated in his amateur wrestling career and even outwrestled the current Bellator welterweight champion, Ben Askren. While Chiesa is a skilled wrestler as well, it will be his jiu-jitsu that will pose problems for LeVesseur. In his fight with Cody McKenzie, LeVesseur showed novice level submission defense, and the same mistakes will cost him dearly against Chiesa. Although his submission defense was much improved in his fight with jiu-jitsu black belt, Carlo Prater, Prater doesn’t have the wrestling skills that Chiesa possess. The one thing that could cost Chiesa the win is his striking. Chiesa’s striking skills have been described as making Jake Shields look like a professional kick boxer, but even with his amateur striking, he was capable of defeating good strikers and powerful wrestlers to win the fifteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. If Chiesa was able to submit a strong wrestler like Al Iaquinta, who is more jiu-jitsu savvy than LeVesseur, then he absolutely has the necessary tools to outsmart LeVesseur on the ground and will get another submission win with a second consecutive rear naked choke.

Raphael Assuncao   vs.   Mike Easton

Assuncao is undefeated since dropping to bantamweight, but Easton is a strong fighter, and fights with mass amounts of aggression. Unlike Assuncao’s last two opponents, Easton won’t let Assuncao to be the one to set the pace of the fight, and this may throw Assuncao off his game when he feels bullied. Assuncao has displayed creative striking in his recent bouts, but it was against lesser talented competition, and that may have allowed him to throw strikes that he won’t be able to land against Easton. After defeating Ivan Menjivar in his last fight, I‘m surprised that Easton isn‘t fighting someone closer to the top ten of the division. Because of this recent victory over a top bantamweight, Easton will be the favorite to win, and I agree with the odds. Easton will rush Assuncao in the opening second of the round and end this fight early. This fight should end quick, but even if Assuncao makes it out of the first round, I’m betting on Easton to get the knockout.

Ramsey Nijem   vs.   Joe Proctor

Proctor is talented on the ground, but Nijem will still be looking for the takedown. Nijem is a well rounded grappler who has both good wrestling style takedowns with judo sweeps as he displayed against C.J. Keith. However, Nijem relies too heavily on his ground game and will be in a world of trouble if he can’t secure a takedown. Nijem’s striking is on the border of awkward and sloppy. Even his most recent technical knockout win, which was grossly premature, was due to ground and pound and wasn‘t set up on the feet.. Although Proctor may not be on a professional kick boxer‘s level, he was able to knockout Jeremy Larsen, who is strictly a striker, and will without a doubt possess the striking advantage. C.J. Keith was able to mount Nijem for a short period of time in their fight, and Proctor possess better ground skills than Keith. Proctor was trained in jiu-jitsu by UFC veteran Joe Lauzon, so even if Nijem can take him down, he will hold his own and could potentially catch Nijem in a submission. I don’t see Nijem taking Proctor down over and over again at will; I find it much more likely that Proctor will make Nijem work for the takedowns and eventually catch him with one clean shot that will drop Nijem and he will land follow up strikes until the ref intervenes.

Yves Edwards   vs.   Jeremy Stephens

I’m quite surprised that so many people are picking Edwards to defeat Stephens in this fight. We’re talking about a fighter who engaged in a striking bout with Melvin Guillard and lost a split decision, and yet Stephens striking isn’t good enough to match Edwards’? Let’s not even bring up the fact that Stephens out struck Sam Stout in the majority of their fight and Stout was able to knockout Edwards in the first round. Even if their striking is dead even, Stephens has the heavier hands. Did no one do their research for this fight? If anyone is getting knocked out in this fight, it will be Edwards. Stephens traded shots with Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, and Marcus Davis; I’m pretty sure Yves Edwards isn’t going to bring anything new to the table that Stephens won’t be more than capable of handling. Look for this fight to be a stand up war and end with Stephens putting Edwards to sleep with a big right hand.

Daron Cruickshank   vs.   Henry Martinez

Martinez is just about the most one dimensional fighter in the UFC. He’s going to stand in front of his opponent, and aggressively headhunt like he did against Matthew Riddle and Bernardo Magalhaes. This style is extremely predictable and I doubt Cruickshank will have any issue using his footwork and head movement to avoid any real damage. I doubt Martinez will be looking to take the fight to the ground, so Cruickshank will be able use more of his karate style kicks and keep Martinez out of attacking range. Even if Martinez is able to close the distance, Cruickshank has a wrestling background and will duck under Martinez’s punches to secure a takedown anytime Martinez looks to throw. In his fight with Bernardo Magalhaes, Martinez seemed to tire after the first round and was less aggressive because of it, so if cardio is an issue for Martinez in this fight, Cruickshank will be able to land a significant amount of offense. The only way I can see Martinez emerging as the victor, is if he gets a lucky knockout, which I don’t see happening. If Cruickshank can’t finish Martinez, there’s no reason he shouldn’t at take a unanimous decision victory.

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek