UFC on Fox 5 Preliminary Predictions (Part 1)

Dennis Siver   vs.   Nam Phan Ultimately, Nam Phan is just a less talented version of Diego Nunes, so I doubt Phan can win this fight simply because Siver already defeated Nunes. Not only.

Dennis Siver   vs.   Nam Phan

Ultimately, Nam Phan is just a less talented version of Diego Nunes, so I doubt Phan can win this fight simply because Siver already defeated Nunes. Not only did Siver win two of three rounds in his fight with Nunes, he did so in his featherweight debut. I’m confident the Siver will have a much better weight cut in this fight that will only better his performace. Phan won’t be able to surprise Siver with his quick striking and creative kicks, and Siver has been known to dish out a few creative strikes of his own, such as his spinning back kick. Just like his fight with Diego Nunes, Siver will be the physically stronger of the two, and will be landing the more damaging shots. Phan won’t be able to match Siver blow for blow and eventually will crumble under the sheer power of Siver’s strikes to give the German a TKO victory.

Scott Jorgensen   vs.   John Albert

I’m disappointed with the fact that Albert has been unable to not only finish his opponents when he has the upper hand, but is also quick to lose the dominate position, then find himself in a world of trouble. After having Ivan Menjivar turtled up against the cage while raining down punches, it was less than a minute later that Menjivar reversed the position, took Albert’s back, and secured a rear naked choke. In following fight, Albert was unable to finish Erik Perez with a triangle choke that he had locked up for a good minute. Perez eventually escaped and soon after caught Albert in an armbar that ended the fight. Jorgensen is a tough fighter with knockout power, so if a fighter can’t put him away, he will fire back. Albert can’t match the strength of Jorgensen, and he won’t be able to submit him. Even if Jorgensen finds himself in a compromising position, based on Albert’s past fights, I guarantee that Jorgensen will reverse the position and make Albert pay. Regardless of these criticisms, Albert is a durable fighter and will avoid being finished, but it’s Jorgensen who will get back to his winning ways.

Tim Means   vs.   Abel Trujillo

Even with the help of Rashad Evans and the veteran fighters the Blackzilians gym, Trujillo won’t have what it takes to defeat Means. Trujillo has finished more than half of his opponents, but after researching the fighters he’s beaten, it becomes evident that Trujillo has only beaten fighters on an amateur level. One of Trujillo’s past opponents had an MMA record of 2-7; how bad is that? With only two fights in the octagon, Means has showcased well rounded skills. In his fights with Bernardo Magalhaes and Justin Salas, Means utilized his long reach advantage to beat both in the striking. Neither fighter was successful in overcoming the dirty bird’s proficient takedown defense, and Means was victorious with a one sided decision, and a first round stoppage. I don’t see this fight being any different, Means can stop Trujillo in the first round or cruise to an easy decision win. Either way, Means gets a third consecutive victory.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

How to Tell if You’re Not a True MMA fan

It’s difficult for a diehard MMA fan to have an in depth discussion about the sport with a more casual fan, especially those who may only have an opinion on Anderson Silva or Jon Jones..

It’s difficult for a diehard MMA fan to have an in depth discussion about the sport with a more casual fan, especially those who may only have an opinion on Anderson Silva or Jon Jones. Some of you out there claim to be MMA fanatics but you aren’t true fans. While I have no problem with casual fans who respect and appreciate a good brawl in the cage, it’s the ignorant so called “fans” who claim to love and know every aspect of MMA, but don’t seem to know the basic common knowledge that goes with that claim. To those people, I propose a test so to see just how loyal to the sport they truly are. The test is simple, you just can’t answer yes to any of the following questions.

 

Do You Think…

 
1.) The UFC is a college?

2.) Dana White is a woman?

3.) Rich “Ace” Franklin plays poker?

4.) Forrest Griffin is an Irish plantation?

5.) The Natural Born Killer is only a movie?

6.) Judo is the capital of Alaska?

7.) Jiu-Jitsu was created by the Jews?

8.) Fedor “The Last Emperor” Emelianenko is in a history book?

9.) Joe Rogan is most famous for hosting FEAR FACTOR?

10.) Minotauro Nogueria is a mythical creature?

11.) Melvin Guillard and Sisqo are the same person?

12.) Clay Guida is an Italian play-doh?

13.) Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy is a crook?

14.) You can‘t sweep your opponent without a broom?

15.) Cro Cop is a bird?

16.) Heath Herring is a fish?

17.) Team Quest is at the Renaissance Fair?

18.) Tim “The Maine-iac” Sylvia is in a mental institution?

19.) GSP is a TV network?

20.) Muay Thai is on an Asian menu?

21.) Martian “The Hitman” Kampmann is a contract killer?

22.) Full guard is a deodorant?

23.) Rubber guard is a condom?

24.) Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva is a serial killer?

25.) The rear naked choke is done in the nude?
I pray that no one who considers themselves knowledgeable about MMA answered yes to any of these questions, if so, I strongly advise those individuals to study up on MMA as if it was your college midterm. For the sake of the sport, we need to make sure the fans are educated.

 

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

We need Cote / Sakara 2

Controversy struck again at UFC 154 when Patrick Cote was declared the winner due to Alessio Sakara being disqualified. What looked like a knockout victory for Sakara, was quickly turned down by the ref as.

Controversy struck again at UFC 154 when Patrick Cote was declared the winner due to Alessio Sakara being disqualified. What looked like a knockout victory for Sakara, was quickly turned down by the ref as he determined that the knockout was due to illegal strikes to the back of Cote’s head. It was an action-packed back and forth battle until the fight ended in controversy, so the only obvious solution, is to have a rematch.

I don’t think the decision to disqualify Sakara was as obvious as Joe Rogan made it out to be. After replaying the supposed illegal strikes numerous times, only two strikes actually landed to the back of the head of Cote. All the other strikes landed to the ear, just behind the ear, or the neck of Cote. Nobody supported the decision to disqualify Erick Silva when two of his strikes landed to the back of Carlo Prater’s head, yet now that Sakara is in the same situation, that few have stated their disagreement. Even in the slow motion reply, Joe Rogan was calling strikes “illegal”, when they clearly weren’t. What confuses me most, is how Rogan immediately defended Erick Silva is his disqualification, yet he was completely on board with Dan Miragliotta’s decision to disqualify Sakara.

Regardless of the official decision, I was still successful in correctly predicting the breakdown of how this fight would play out; Sakara having the faster, more technical striking that would give Cote problems. Because of his fight with Brian Stann, Sakara’s chin was underestimated, and he was able to come back from a few big strikes to take back control of the fight.  Every MMA fan should acknowledge Cote’s iron jaw and respectable punching power, but to be blunt, his striking is overrated and isn’t on Sakara’s technical striking level. It’s seems uncanny, but of the twenty three more credible internet predictions I’ve read, only four had Sakara winning, myself included. Then again, the same can be said for me correctly predicting the outcome of the Sam Stout / John Makdessi fight.

Maybe now the predictions and betting odds will shift and seem a little more even in the rematch, assuming there will be a rematch. I’ll still be taking Sakara to beat Cote next time around, and I foresee many more people agreeing with me. Not only will Sakara win the rematch, he will finish him again, only this time, it will be under less controversial means.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

UFC 154 Main Card Predictions

Mark Hominick   vs.   Pablo Garza Garza may have excellent Jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling is amateur level, and his striking isn’t anything spectacular. Hominick won’t have any problem keeping this fight on the feet.

Mark Hominick   vs.   Pablo Garza

Garza may have excellent Jiu-jitsu, but his wrestling is amateur level, and his striking isn’t anything spectacular. Hominick won’t have any problem keeping this fight on the feet and picking Garza apart. Garza’s wrestling isn’t good enough for him to take Hominick down so his only chance for success is to close the distance and pull guard. Garza was able to submit Yves Jabouin, who is an excellent striker, but Hominick is much more knowledgeable in jiu-jitsu than Jabouin, so I don’t see him getting caught in one of Garza’s submission attempts. If Hominick isn’t able to eventually knock Garza out, he will take a unanimous decision victory.

Nick Ring   vs.   Costa Philippou

Philippou has really showcased his excellent boxing skills in his last several fights, which is even more effective due to his excellent takedown defense. Philippou was much more successful in his fights with Riki Fukuda and Court McGee than Ring was when he fought them. In fact, I thought Ring should’ve been on the loosing end of both those fights, but lucked out due to judging incompetence. Philippou will be able to avoid Ring’s takedown attempts and will clearly have the advantage in the striking. If James Head was able to drop Ring in their fight, I have full confidence that Philippou will hurt Ring and put him away. Ring may last the first round, but soon after Philippou will knock him out.

Francis Carmont   vs.   Tom Lawlor

I used to think that Carmont was an overrated fighter, but with each one of his victories in the octagon, he has gained more of my respect. Lawlor is a talented fighter who has excellent wrestling, but I highly doubt that Lawlor will be able to use his wrestling effectively against Carmont. If a powerful wrestler like Karlos Vemola was unable to use his wrestling against Carmont, then I certainly don’t see Lawlor being able to succeed with the same game plan. Now Lawlor does possess good boxing, but Carmont will easily outclass him on the feet with his superior striking and sizable reach advantage. Carmont should have no problem avoiding Lawlor’s takedown attempts and will even find himself in the top position on the ground. After softening his opponent up with punches, Carmont will look for his third consecutive rear-naked choke victory.
Martin Kampmann   vs.   Johnny Hendricks

This fight is pretty split in the predictions, which is understandable. Kampmann has the technical striking advantage, and quite possibly the jiu-jitsu advantage as well. However, Kampmann will not be able to successfully use his jiu-jitsu due to the expert wrestling of Hendricks. Kampmann has been susceptible to getting sucked into a dogfight rather than a technical striking battle, and when that happens it’s often bad news for him. Hendricks has the power advantage and has striking skills that are good enough to stand with Kampmann until he can set up the takedown. Seeing that Hendricks was able to stand with Josh Koscheck, I doubt Kampmann will be able to pick apart Hendricks so easily. Kampmann gets caught with a heavy strike in nearly every one of his fights and those are not good odds when fighting Hendricks, and I see Kampmann getting up close and personal with the heavy left hand. Kampmann has recovered well in the past, even when it seemed that he was going to get finished. Either way, if Hendricks doesn’t knock out Kampmann, his wrestling skills are more than enough to win him a unanimous decision.

Georges St-Pierre   vs.   Carlos Condit

As much as I’d like to see Condit pull off the win, I’m skeptical if he will be the fighter to dethrone the long-time welterweight champ. Condit truly is a complete fighter, but GSP has always given the best of the best problems with his wrestling alone. Condit is skilled off of his back, but if GSP avoided submissions from B.J. Penn while in his guard, I’ll have to think twice before thinking Condit will be able submit him off his back. Because Condit has a heavy kicking offense, GSP will look to grab a leg and take Condit down. If Condit chooses not to use any kicks, it will severely weaken his range and offense. It’s safe to assume that Condit his working day and night on his takedown defense, but I don’t think it will be enough. GSP won’t finish Condit seeing he never finishes any of his opponents anymore, but he should retain his belt by winning a close, but unanimous decision.
Written by : Ryan Poli
@FightFreek

UFC 154 Preliminary Predictions

Steven Siler   vs.   Darren Elkins Siler has shown well rounded skills against several quality opponents, but of his three UFC bouts, neither of his opponents has the takedowns or top control that Elkins.

Steven Siler   vs.   Darren Elkins

Siler has shown well rounded skills against several quality opponents, but of his three UFC bouts, neither of his opponents has the takedowns or top control that Elkins possess. He was able to take and hold down Diego Brandao, who is a much better striker and grappler than Siler. Simple logic, if Diego Brandao wasn’t able to do enough to defeat Elkins, I see no way that Siler will be able to catch Elkins on the feet, or with a submission. Elkins will grind out another unanimous decision.

Ivan Menjivar   vs.   Azamat Gashimov

This is almost too easy to call, but will the biggest upset if I end up picking incorrectly. Bottom line, Menjivar has so much experience with fighting the best of the best. Who has Gashimov fought? Exactly. There’s always a possibility that Gashimov will land that one lucky punch, but I’ll never predict a fighter to win based solely on a lucky punch. I’m actually surprised that the UFC didn’t match him up with someone closer to the elite of the division even after his loss to Mike Easton. Menjivar’s well rounded skills will be more than enough to defeat Gashimov nearly anyway he chooses.

Matthew Riddle   vs.   John Maguire

I will admit that I was impressed with Riddle’s striking in his fight with Chris Clements. It was my prediction that Clements was going to win that fight and win big, but I couldn’t have been more wrong. Nonetheless, I hardly think his last fight is any reason to think Riddle will be able to overcome the submission skills of Maguire. If Riddle’s striking was on the same level of John Hathaway, then I’d agree that he’d have a good chance of winning. Unfortunately for Riddle, this is not the case, and Maguire will sooner or later take this fight to the ground. Once on the ground, it will be only a matter of time until the Brit is able to tap Riddle; most likely this fight will end in the first round.

Antonio Carvalho   vs.   Rodrigo Damn

After Carvalho’s win over Daniel Pineda, it will take a pretty big name for me to think about picking against him. His striking was extremely crisp and if Carvalho has a similar performance in this fight, it will be ugly for Damn. Damn has both experience and well rounded skills, but is primarily a grappler, so although Carvalho can outclass Damn everywhere the fight goes, he will look to knock Damn out on the feet rather than playing the submission game.

Sam Stout   vs.   John Makdessi

I’m hoping that this will be a stand up fight, but I’m betting that Stout will try to take Makdessi to the ground where he should have the advantage. As we’ve seen in his fight against Dennis Hallman, Makdessi is like a fish out of water when he put on his back, and he doesn’t even have the takedown defense he should to make up for his lack of ground skills. Just based on this alone, I feel I should pick Stout to win. However, I’ll be picking Makdessi. He’s on a two fight loosing streak and one more loss could cause him to get cut from the UFC. This is the kind of push he will need to come into this fight in shape and focused, ready to finish any opponent that is in his way. The flip side to Makdessi having no ground skills is that his striking is outstanding. Stout may have good kickboxing skills, but he will not be able to go toe to toe with Makdessi on the feet. I don’t see Makdessi loosing three fights in a row. His aggressive striking will stifle any takedown attempts that Stout may try, and Makdessi will look to finish this fight in the first round by knockout.

Mark Bocek   vs.   Rafael dos Anjos

Even though I’d give a slight edge in jiu-jitsu to dos Anjos, they both are experts on the ground. What will really make a difference in this fight is the obvious skill difference in the striking department. His fight with Clay Guida was the turning point in which we saw the drastically improved stand up from dos Anjos to become quite the muay thai striker. Following that fight, he knocked out George Sotiropoulos in only twenty nine seconds. I won’t say that Bocek has poor stand up, but he clearly isn’t on dos Anjos’ striking level. We may still see a submission chess battle on the ground, but I think dos Anjos will look to take Bocek out on the feet, and will successfully do so late in the fight.

Diabate Cyrille   vs.   Chad Griggs

To be blunt, I haven’t been impressed with Diabate’s performance in his last several fights, but he still has advantages over Griggs. No one knows how the cut to light heavyweight will go, and it could potentially have a negative affect on his performance. Also there’s the obvious reach advantage to Diabate which will only increase the advantage he already possess in the technical striking. Diabate’s real weakness has been in the grappling department, but as Griggs showed in his fight with Travis Browne, he can be dominated in the grappling as well. This leads me to believe that the diffence will be in the striking and that clearly goes to Diabate. Based on his recent performance, I don’t think Diabate will finish Griggs, but he should be able to win himself a unanimous decision.

Patrick Cote   vs.   Alessio Sakara

After his fight with Cung Le, I thought people would stop over exaggerating Cote’s striking and power. With the exception of myself, every prediction was the same with Cote knocking out Le early in the first round. In reality, Cote was outclasses by a superior striker all three rounds and the same will happen in this fight with Sakara. Because of the iron chin of Cote, I won’t jump to the conclusion Sakara winning by knockout, but Cote does not possess the technical striking that Sakara, a former professional boxer, possesses. Because of his recent knockout loss to Brian Stann, People are accusing Sakara of having a weak chin, when Stann was one of only two men to every knockout Chris Leben, the other man being the great Anderson Silva. Sakara’s chin will be underestimated just as Cung Le’s was, and it will be a crucial mistake. Sakara will use his footwork, head movement and superior boxing to outpoint Cote all three rounds, just as Cung Le did.

 

Written by : Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli
@FightFreek

 

UFC on Fuel TV 6 Main Card Predictions

Tiequan Zhang   vs.   Jon Tuck Tuck is coming off two first round knockouts and I’m predicting a third. Zhang is far from impressive in his fights, and a powerful striker is his kryptonite..

Tiequan Zhang   vs.   Jon Tuck

Tuck is coming off two first round knockouts and I’m predicting a third. Zhang is far from impressive in his fights, and a powerful striker is his kryptonite. Zhang will be unable to clinch with Tuck and he is no match for him on the feet. Tuck will pick Zhang apart until he lands that one clean shot that will put Zhang out.

Alex Caceres   vs.   Motonobu Tezuka

Caceres got lucky when Kyung Ho Kang pulled out due to injury because I predicted that he’d defeat Caceres. Tezuka on the other hand, won’t pose as much of a threat, and the now greater reach advantage that Caceres has over Tezuka will make his gameplan a pure striking one. Caceres will use his length and superior striking to outpoint Tezuka, he should avoid the ground game at all costs. Caceres will take unanimous decision.

Takanori Gomi   vs.   Mac Danzig

Gomi isn’t the same fighter he was in his pride days, other than his knockout of Tyson Griffin, Gomi has had zero success in the octagon. Danzig hasn’t had the greatest career in the octagon, but he has shown well rounded skills that will be enough to defeat Gomi. Gomi constantly leaves his hands low, and will get caught over and over with Danzig’s snapping jab. Danzig’s technical boxing is superior to Gomi’s and Danzig can also out wrestling Gomi and press him up against the cage. Gomi’s only chance to win is to put Danzig to sleep with his heavy hands, and Danzig will avoid it easily. Look for Danzig to suck the will out of Gomi and finish him just like Kenny Florian did with a rear naked choke.

Dong Hyun Kim   vs.   Paulo Thiago

Both fighters are well experienced on the ground with skills in judo and jiu-jitsu. Kim and Thiago have improved on their striking, but Kim was more impressive with his striking in his fight with Sean Pierson. Thiago did outclass David Mitchell on the feet, but Mitchell had less than novice striking so I’m not too impressed. The ground skills of Kim and Thiago will cancel out, and Kim striking and reach advantage will be the differnce in this fight and will get him the unanimous decision win.
Thiago Silva   vs.   Stanislav Nedkov

Although Silva was completely outclasses in his fight with Alexander Gustafsson, I don’t see him having any problem getting a victory in China. Nedkov has power in his hands, but he displayed very predictable, one dimensional striking in his fight with Luiz Cane. In fact, Cane was clearly getting the better of Nedkov until he was on the receiving end of a punch that put him on wobbly legs, and Nedkov took advantage of the opportunity to finish him off. Nedkov may have been able to catch Cane, but I don’t see him having such luck against Silva. Silva is very well rounded and should have the advantage no matter where the fight goes and he will do to Nedkov the same thing he did to Brandon Vera. Silva will take Nedkov to the ground and land heavy strikes that will absolutely destroy Nedkov’s face, only this time, Silva will get the stoppage.

Rich Franklin   vs.   Cung Le

This is a much bigger opportunity for Le than it is for Franklin. Nearly everyone thought Le would get knocked out by Patrick Cote, although he proved everyone wrong, I have zero confidence that he can beat Franklin. Le’s creative kicks won’t be enough to fluster Franklin and he will most likely tire after the first round. Franklin’s superior cardio will allow him to push the pace and he will start to take over the in the striking. If Franklin doesn’t Knockout Le on the feet, he can just as easily look for a takedown and submit Le. Either way, Franklin will end the fight in the second round.

 

Written by : Ryan Poli

@Fight Freek