Author: ryanpoli

MMAFix.com’s most sacred tradition is upon us once again, with MMA analysts Josh Leduc and Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli attempting to out predict one another in the upcoming UFC event, UFC on FOX 7. It’s been a closely contested competition, with Ryan currently leading by two fights, but Josh has the chance to take the lead if he can ends up being right on the three fights they disagree on.

 
– Tim Means  vs.  Jorge Masvidal

Ryan’s thoughts : Means is a larger lightweight that can use his size to his advantage. He has defeated opponents of Jiu-Jitsu, wrestling, and striking background, so Masdival won’t be throwing something that will completely surprise Means. The Dirty Bird is aggressive in his fights and is usually the one to push the pace, so between his work ethic and physical advantages, he should pick up his third win in the UFC.

Pick : Tim Means

Josh’s thoughts : Masvidal has experience fighting big names such as, Raphael Assuncao, Joe Lauzon, Rodrigo Damm, Paul Daley, K.J. Noons, and Gilbert Melendez. He has gone a full five rounds with Melendez, and actually defeated K.J. Noons, Yves Edwards and Joe Lauzon in those fights. He’s proficient with head kicks that have caught his opponents of guard, and even knocked one of them out. He should be able to use his experience and superior technical striking to achieve victory in his UFC debut.

Pick : Jorge Masvidal

 

– Francis Carmont vs. Lorenz Larkin

Ryan’s thoughts : Larkin may have the more technical striking, but the height and reach of Carmont might pose some issue for him, on top of the fact that Carmont is a proficient striker himself. Now Carmont has been a bit inconsistent, but those were fights against grappling based opponents, which Larkin is not. Carmont should be able to get the fight to the ground and submit Larkin, whether that be in the first, second, or third round.

Pick : Francis Carmont

 
Josh’s thought’s : In his first fight at middleweight, Larkin out struck Robbie Lawler for three rounds. His cardio seemed to hold up, which tells me he knows how to cut weight properly, and it’ll only get easier from here. I’m not worried about Carmont being the dominate striker, or getting Larking to the ground and holding him there. Whether it end by knockout or decision, Larkin should get his hand raised.

Pick : Lorenz Larkin

 

– Frank Mir vs. Daniel Cormier

Ryan’s thoughts : Frank Mir’s only chance for victory is to find a way to lock up a submission, a game plan that Jeff Monson, Antonio Silva, and Josh Barnett all failed to do. Mir may be a better Jiu-Jitsu fighter than the other three, but between Cormier’s expert wrestling and knockout power, I find it much more likely that Mir is on the wrong side of some brutal ground and pound that his take him out of this fight.

Pick : Daniel Cormier

 
Josh’s thoughts : Mir has been overwhelmed by heavy strikes in his fights with Shane Carwin, Jurnior dos Santos, and Brock Lesnar (the rematch), but no matter how badly he has been beaten, he could be one move away from tapping out his opponent. Mir was battered by Antonio Nogueira in their rematch, and Brock Lesnar in their first fight, and in both cases Mir countered with a submission to get the tap. I going with the veteran to do the same in a fight where he has a lot to prove to the odds makers.

Pick : Frank Mir

 

Just for the record, here’s our picks for the rest of the bouts…

 

Ben Henderson > Gilbert Melendez

Nate Diaz > Josh Thomson

Matt Brown < Jordan Mein

Chad Mendes > Darren Elkins

Ramsey Nijem < Myles Jury

Joseph Benavidez > Darren Uyenoyama

T.J. Dillashaw > Hugo Viana

Anthony Njokuani > Roger Bowling

Clifford Starks > Yoel Romero

 

 
– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

Benson Henderson   vs.  Gilbert Melendez

Melendez may be the best lightweight when compared to all Strikeforce, Bellator, and probably every other organization, except for the UFC. If he were to actually fight the top ten of the UFC’s lightweight division, he might beat half. Bendo is at the top of the list and for good reason. His wrestling is on par with Melendez’s, but his striking, Jiu-Jitsu, and cardio are superior. Quite frankly, Melendez is rather one dimensional, and I’d put money on the fact that he can out wrestle the champ for even three of five rounds to squeeze out a decision. I don’t know how it’ll happen, but Henderson will retain his title.

Pick : Benson Henderson

 

Frank Mir   vs. Daniel Cormier

I have all the respect in the world for Mir, but his striking skills haven’t developed enough to threaten his opponent, and his only chance is to lock up a submission. As great of a Jiu-Jitsu practitioner as Mir is, the wrestling of Cormier will smother Mir and stifle any submission attempt he may have. Cormier has been described as a black Fedor, and it seems quick accurate. I wouldn’t pick Mir to beat Fedor, and I’m not picking him to beat Cormier.

Pick : Daniel Cormier

 

Nate Diaz   vs.  Josh Thomson

Many people believe that Thomson should be fighting Ben Henderson as the Strikeforce champ. The fight between him and Gilbert Melendez was close, but I think the judges got it right. Still, Thomson is a great fighter with good kicks, but Diaz should still have the boxing advantage, as well as and edge on the ground. Thomson could take Diaz down with his wrestling, but that probably wouldn’t be a great idea, as a submission would always be just a moment away. Like his fight with Gilbert Melendez, Thomson will make it a close fight, but Diaz will come out on top.

Pick : Nate Diaz

 

Matt Brown   vs.  Jordan Mein

Tough fight to call, and there are multiple reasons to go with either one of these fighters. What concerns me is the striking of Brown, not the fact that it’s better than Mein’s, but better than Dan Miller’s. Mein had a bit of trouble with Miller’s grappling, but easily won the fight on the feet. Now Brown’s Jiu-Jitsu isn’t as good as Miller’s but the combo of solid grappling and striking skills will have Mein thinking about more than one form of offense. Seeing Mein is such a talented striker, has faced grapplers of all sorts, and has proficient submission defense; I’m taking Mein to once again showcase he belongs in the UFC.

Pick : Jordan Mein

 

Chad Mendes   vs.  Darren Elkins

Elkins has really made a name for himself with wins over Diego Brandao, Steven Siler, and Antonio Carvalho; but now he’s fighting an opponent who does what Elkins does best, only better. It’s been his wrestling that aided Elkins in the majority of his victories, and now he doesn’t even have that advantage. Mendes’ wrestling can overwhelm even the best grappler, such as Rani Yahya, and has wins over excellent strikers Erik Koch and Cub Swanson. Not a lot of facts to back Elkins in this fight.

Pick : Chad Mendes

 

Francis Carmont   vs.  Lorenz Larkin

Unlike his fight with Robbie Lawler, Larkin will have to be acknowledge that he may have to fight on the ground. Carmont will look to take this fight out of his opponent’s comfort zone, where there is a strong possibility of locking up a submission. Even on the feet, the height and reach of Carmont will play a significant factor, that could make the striking fairly even. Although I wouldn’t be terribly surprised is Larkin landed a finishing blow, Carmont has more tools, and therefore, more ways to win.

Pick : Francis Carmont

 

Ransey Nijem   vs.  Myles Jury

I predicted fellow TUF Live competitor, Joe Proctor, to defeat Nijem, but that fight didn’t go my way. I was more disappointed in Joe Proctor‘s failure to capitalize on opportunities, rather than be impressed with Nijem’s overall performance, so I think Jury will be able to get the job done. Quick frankly, Jury has impressed me. He was on the losing end of a split decision to TUF Live runner up and Urijah Faber‘s number one pick, Al Iaquinta, which is an honorable way to be eliminated from competition. His submission win over Chris Saunders, and three round domination of Michael Johnson are more than enough proof that he can handle the likes of Nijem.

Pick : Myles Jury

 

Joseph Benavidez   vs.  Darren Uyenoyama

I won’t say that Uyenoyama doesn’t have a chance, but Benavidez is the second best flyweight in the world. His last win was over the third best flyweight in the world, and now he will face a rather one dimensional fighter. And if Benavidez had no ground game, then that would make for an interesting fight, but he’s an outstanding wrestler with proficient submissions. The chances of Uyenoyama submitting Benavidez aren’t too good, and that’s the only chance he has of pulling out a win. Benavidez wrestles his way to another win.

Pick : Joseph Benavidez

 

Tim Means   vs.  Jorge Masvidal

Before his injury, Means was on a tear, dominating Bernardo Magalhaes and Justin Salas. Now he’ll be rewarded will a step up in competition, and this could put him right up there with some of the big names in the UFC’s lightweight division. Masvidal is one of the best lightweights to come out of Strikeforce, but I predicted Means to be the next big thing in the UFC. He’s beaten fighters of all backgrounds, and his size and reach will help him get this win, further advancing his career.

Pick : Tim Means

 

 

Quick Picks

T.J. Dillashaw over Hugo Viana

Anthony Njokunai over Hugo Viana

Clifford Starks over Yoel Romero

 

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

It’s that time again where MMAFix.com writers, Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli and Josh Leduc compete against one another to see who will come out as the top MMA analyst. Only one fight separated them for UFC’s on Fuel TV 9 fight card, but this time there’s dissension in four of the event’s bouts.

Now we look into the thought process of each analyst, as we wait and see who will earn bragging rights when the all is said and done.

 

– Justin Lawrence vs. Daniel Pineda

Ryan’s thoughts : Lawrence is a great striker, but we’ve seen him fall at the hands of superior grapplers. If he couldn’t finish Michael Chiesa, who is a striking novice, I don’t see him running right through the Muay Thai striking of Pineda. I find it much more likely that Pineda locks up a submission.

Pick : Daniel Pineda

Josh’s thoughts : It’s true that Lawrence has a lot to learn in the grappling department, but his expert striking has gotten him through talented wrestlers/Jiu-Jitsu practitioners like John Cofer and Cristiano Marcello. Pineda’s striking is good, but not enough to prevent him from coming up short.

Pick : Justin Lawrence

 

– Clint Hester vs. Bristol Marunde

Ryan’s thoughts : As Jon Jones’ number one pick, Hester didn’t exactly wow anyone. All I’ve learned from him is that a good wrestler can control him, which is what I expect Marunde to do.

Pick : Bristol Marunde

Josh’s thoughts : Even when Jimmy Quinlan was controlling the ground game, Hester lit him up with numerous strikes, and may have won the first round because of it. Applying the same strategy against Marunde should get him the victory seeing his submission skills are not on Quinlan’s level.

Pick : Clint Hester

 

– Dylan Andrews vs. Jimmy Quinlan

Ryan’s thoughts : Quinlan has the wrestling of Andrews with the Jiu-Jitsu of Kevin Casey, so the grappling advantage should lay with Quinlan. Andrews will probably have the striking advantage, but I seriously doubt that the two will stand and trade.

Pick : Jimmy Quinlan

Josh’s thoughts : Andrews took out Chael Sonnen’s number one and number three pick, and was only defeated by Uriah Hall, the biggest prospect we’ve ever seen. Between his Muay Thai and wrestling, he should edge out this fight.

Pick : Dylan Andrews

 

– Cole Miller vs. Bart Palaszewski

Ryan’s thoughts : Miller should be used to his featherweight cut by now, seeing that his conditioning has improved each fight. His last fight was a razor close split decision against Nam Phan. Now Nam Phan is a black belt in Karate, Judo, BJJ, and a 2nd degree black belt in Quyen Dao; so there’s no shaming in just coming up short. Palaszewski was dominated in his last two fights, and appreared weak on the ground. As a BJJ black belt, Miller should do the exact same, dominate his opponent on the ground.

Pick : Cole Miller

Josh’s thoughs : Miller doesn’t utilize his reach effectively, which will allow Palaszewski to close the distance and land heavy shots. I’m not impressed with Miller conditioning, and Palaszewski will be the stronger, better conditioned fighter. It’s enough for me to side with Barticus.

Pick : Bart Palaszewski

 

Just for the record, here are the rest of our picks that we agree on…

 

Urijah Faber over Scott Jorgensen

Uriah Hall over Kelvin Gatelum

Cat Zingano over Miesha Tate

Gabriel Gonzaga over Travis Browne

Gilbert Smith over Bubba McDaniel

Josh Samman over Kevin Casey

Luke Barnatt over Collin Hart

Sam Sicilia over Maximo Blanco

 

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

 

Urijah Faber   vs.  Scott Jorgensen

Both fighters are strong wrestlers and share top level opponents, such as, Dominick Cruz, Renan Barao, and Eddie Wineland. When comparing their bouts with these fighters, win or lose, Faber has had a better performance. The biggest factor will be Faber’s speed. Not that Jorgensen is slow, but Faber has always been one of the quicker fighters in the cage, which has always aided in his success. However, conditioning may also be a factor. Again, not saying the Jorgensen shows up out of shape, but Faber is always ready to go five rounds, and maybe even more.

I’m interested to see how the striking game will play out, if that’s how the fight unfolds, but Jorgensen will have the advantage in knockout power; there’s no denying that. But as for technical skill, I believe Faber will have a slight edge. The wrestling is close to call, but Faber’s ability to be so nimble in the scrambles has me leaning towards him in that department as well.

So if I have it all tallied up correctly, Faber has to remain quick, nimble and avoid the power of Jorgensen to get the win. I don’t think he’ll have that tough of a time doing that, rewarding him with a unanimous decision.

Pick : Urijah Faber

 

Uriah Hall   vs.  Kelvin Gastelum

He might be the youngest competitor in TUF history and Chael Sonne’s last pick, but Kelvin Gastelum has proved himself to be one of the best fighters of this TUF season. With that being said, Uriah Hall has been called the most dangerous fighter in TUF history. Chris Weidman brought Hall in his training camp to prepare him for his upcoming title fight with Anderson Silva; what does that say about his skills? With such an advantage on the feet, it would be in Gastelum’s best interest to take Hall down, however, Dylan Andrews had the same game plan and was unsuccessful. This could very well be a repeat of Uriah Hall vs. Dylan Andrews, with Hall having more success no matter where the fight goes.

Pick : Uriah Hall

 

Miesha Tate   vs.  Cat Zingano

Both of these elite female athletes are well rounded and have a primary skill of wrestling, but from the footage on their fights, it looks like Zingano is just a bit better in all aspects of MMA. They’re both decorated wrestlers, but the Jiu-Jitsu advantage should lay with Zingano. Her husband, Mauricio Zingano, is a BJJ black belt and runs Zingano BJJ, so she’s closer to her BJJ coach than anyone. Even on the feet, Zingano possesses proficient Muay Thai striking, making her more than capable of handling herself against Tate.

In her fights with Marloes Coenen, Ronda Rousey, and Julie Kedzie; see has either lost, lost most of the fight, or was in extreme trouble. I don’t see Tate out working Zingano with her striking or wrestling, and as someone who teaches at a fitness boot camp, don’t hold your breathe on Zingano gassing out, allowing Tate to turn the tables.

Pick : Cat Zingano

 

Travis Browne   vs.  Gabriel Gonzaga

Browne’s only legitimate win was his knockout of Stefan Struve, all the others were “gimmie” fights, which is wasn’t exactly impressive. Nearly everyone had Browne beating Antonio Silva, and look how that fight turned out. Browne will have to get his head checked if he tries to take the fight to the ground, seeing Gonzaga is an elite BJJ practitioner. But even on the feet, Gonzaga has rocked skilled strikers like Ben Rothwell and Cro Cop. Not only does the Brazilian possess great grappling and solid striking, but he has one hell of a chin that will make matters worse for Browne.

I can’t criticize Brown for his cardio, seeing Gonzaga didn’t look all that well conditioned in his last fight, but he displayed good striking, power, and great takedowns/ Jiu-Jitsu. Gonzaga will look to utilize the same skills on Browne, and I’m betting he’ll be successful.

Pick : Gabriel Gonzaga

 

Cole Miller   vs.  Bart Palaszewski

Neither fighter has had much success in their last couple of bouts, but the reasons for Miller’s poor performances seem much more legitimate. Miller lost to Steven Siler in his featherweight debut, and as we all know, a fighter’s first fight at a lighter weight class can cause them to have a piss poor performance. TO his credit, Miller did win the first round against Siler, in fact,it was pretty obvious that he won that round. However, he did end up losing the next two. Let’s not forget that Steven Siler has proven himself to be a talented fighter in the UFC’s featherweight division, so where’s the shame?

Against Nam Phan, Miller made it a close fight that ended in a razor thin split decision in Phan’s favor. Nam Phan is very much like Diego Nunes in his striking, just more diverse with a better grappling game. Now if we all remember correctly, Nunes absolutely destroyed Palaszewski. So by comparison, Miller fared much better against a similar fighter that Palaszewski did, and it was only his second fight at a new weight class.

On the ground, Miller should mop the floor with Palaszewski. As a BJJ black belt with numerous submission wins, he’ll most likely look to take the fight to the canvas. Even on the feet, Miller held his own against solid strikers like Nam Phan and Ross Pearson, plus his natural reach advantage will only further assist him.

Bottom line, Palaszewski was dominated in his last two fights, while Miller has dropped two close decisions. Miller could potentially turn this into a fight much like Hatsu Hioko did in his fight with Palaszewski. If you don’t recall how that fight went, let’s just say it was more than slightly one sided.

Pick : Cole Miller

 

Sam Sicilia   vs.  Maximo Blanco

Blanco is coming off a loss to Marcus Brimage, who like Sicilia, is a pretty aggressive striker. When Blanco is pressured, he is more tentative in his attacks and will focus solely on his defense, rather than his offense. This is exactly what Sicilia wants to happen, as it will allow him to come forward and throw haymakers. This will be Sicilia’s second fight at featherweight, so he should be better conditioned for this fight. Sicilia fared well against Rony “Jason” until he was tagged with a critical punch that led to his knockout, but blanco isn’t nearly as aggressive as the TUF Brazil winner. I’m not putting my money on Blanco catching Sicilia in the midst of a slugfest, and therefore, find it much more likely that he is pressured by Sicilia for three rounds, or is even on the receiving end of a finishing blow.

Pick : Sam Sicilia

 

Justin Lawrence   vs.  Daniel Pineda

Lawrence is a fantastic striker, but the ground game is his kryptonite. Pineda is proficient in BJJ, and clearly isn’t the fighter you want to face when your ground game sucks. Lawrence will come out quite aggressively, but as long as Pineda can avoid getting run down in the first minute, he should be able to close the distance and lock up a submission. Seeing Pineda’s Muay Thai striking is up to par, he should have not issue weathering the early storm of Lawrence.

Pick : Daniel Pineda

 

– Quick Picks –

Gilbert Smith over Bubba McDaniel

Josh Samman over Kevin Casey

Luke Barnatt over Collin Hart

Jimmy Quinlan over Dylan Andrews

Bristol Marunde over Clint Hester

 

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek