Author: ryanpoli

Ronda Rousey   vs.  Liz Carmouche

Rousey is still undefeated has looked unstoppable. Carmouche says she won’t fall victim to an armbar like the others, but many Rousey’s past opponents thought the same. No doubt Carmouche is a great fighter, but there’s nothing that separates her from the rest of the competition that Rousey has faced. In fact, she lost a decision to Sarah Kaufman, while Rousey dominated Kaufman and submitted her in the first round. Wrestlers, Strikers, and all around well rounded fighters have all fallen at the hands of Rousey, and this fight will be no different.

Pick : Ronda Rousey

 

Lyoto Machida   vs.  Dan Henderson

Henderson could end his fight at any moment if he lands his “H-Bomb”, but against the most elusive fighter in MMA, there’s a good chance of Henderson’s fans being disappointed. As good a wrestler as Henderson is, it’s surprising that he has chose to keep the fight standing in his most recent bouts. This strategy will backfire against Machida. When Henderson is unable to land a powerful right hand, he will become desperate and reckless, and that’s when Machida will find an opportunity to strike. Machida has already knocked out two strong wrestlers, Randy Couture and Ryan Bader. If such an experienced fighter like Couture got caught by Machida, then why not Henderson? He’s hasn’t been knocked out thus far, but time will catch up to almost every fighter, and any fighter in their 40’s is long over due for it.

Pick : Lyoto Machida

 

Urijah Faber   vs.  Ivan Menjivar

Both fighters are in top elite of the UFC’s Bantamweights, but with the exception of only three fighters, Faber can defeat anyone at 135 lbs. Menjivar has the better Jiu-Jitsu off his back, but Faber’s wrestling will be enough to avoid any armbar attempts, unlike Menjivar’s last opponent. I don’t see either fighter getting the finish, but Faber should get a unanimous decision win.

Pick : Urijah Faber

 

Josh Koscheck   vs.  Robbie Lawler

The betting odds truly reflect just how stacked the odds are in Koscheck’s favor. Just like his fight with Tim Kennedy, Lawler will be outclassed by an expert wrestler. Only this time, Lawler is facing an opponent who is also possesses very proficient striking. Between his wrestling, striking, and Cardio; Koscheck will have more than enough tools to defeat Lawler. I don’t see a knockout happening, but Koscheck can hold his opponent down for three rounds, or sneak in a rear naked choke as he’s done to several one dimensional fighters who rely solely on their striking.

Pick : Josh Koscheck

 

Brendan Schaub   vs.  Lavar Johnson

This is probably the toughest fight for me to predict a winner. Schaub is well rounded and has strong work ethic, but his chin is questionable after suffering two consecutive knockout losses. If Schaub was finished by Ben Rothwell and “Big Nog”, then Johnson can certainly do the same. Johnson has finished fighters with better striking and iron chins, such as, Pat Barry and Joey Beltran. The Achilles heel of Johnson seems to be the ground game, and Schaub is a BJJ brown belt. However, Johnson should know the takedown is more than likely coming from Scaub, and he’ll be ready to stuff the takedown, or counter with his heavy uppercuts. Once hurt, Schaub will be in survival mode, and Johnson will look to finish with an impressive knockout.

Pick : Lavar Johnson

 

Michael Chiesa   vs.  Anton Kuivanen

Kuivanen showcased much improved grappling in his last fight against Mitch Clarke, but Chiesa is a different kind of animal on the ground. He has a near perfect combination of wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu style that will be a nightmare for Kuivanen. If a wrestler like Justin Salas was able to implement his wrestling on Kuivanen, then Chiesa can do the same, but he will actually finish the fight via submission.

Pick : Michael Chiesa

 

Court McGee   vs.  Josh Neer

The biggest X Factor in this fight will be McGee’s weight cut. Personally, I think McGee and Demian Maia had similar body types at middleweight, and certainly wasn’t significantly large or lean in that weight class. The weight cut shouldn’t be too hard on him, and his performance shouldn’t be affected negatively. If that’s the case, McGee will have the advantage on the feet, and as equally strong on the ground. McGee is a karate black belt and proficient in Jiu-Jitsu, especially with chokes. He has multiple wins by either rear naked, arm triangle, or guillotine choke. As a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Neer is proficient in grappling and has twelve wins by submission. He is deadly off his back with triangles and is capable of countering a takedown attempt with a guillotine choke. However, McGee’s well rounded skills will keep him comfortable wherever the fight takes place, and he’ll find one way or another to secure a win.

Pick : Court McGee

 

Sam Stout   vs.  Caros Fodor

Stout has looked mediocre in his last three fights, and could only muster up a win over the no longer significant Spenser Fisher. In his amateur career, Fodor was a champion in MMA and Muay Thai. He also trains with Matt Hume, so we know his grappling is up to par, and will most likely have the advantage on the ground. As he proved in his fight with Justin Wilcox, Fodor can end a fight fast and early. I don’t expect Stout to come into this fight any better than he did in his last three. He’ll put up an effort, but Fodor will out strike him for 3 rounds, if he doesn’t finish him first.

Pick : Caros Fodor

 

Dennis Bermudez   vs.  Matt Grice

Both fighters have a great wrestling talent, but the striking, athleticism, and physical strength advantage are all in the corner of Bermudez. As if he didn’t already have more advantages in this fight, Bermudez also has one hell of a chin, so I certainly don’t see Grice pulling off a lucky knockout. Grice is touch, and won’t be easy to finish, but Bermudez will out wrestle the wrestler and take a decision.

Pick : Dennis Bermudez

 

Kenny Robertson   vs.  Brock Jardine

Not a lot of success for either fighter in the UFC, so this becomes a game of who sucked less in there fights. Robertson didn’t do that bad against Aaron Simpson, but Simpson had a poor performance due to it being his first fight at welterweight. Jardine held his own against Rick Story, and when he wins, he wins quickly. Robertson has a few first round wins as well, but I’m picked Jardine as the more well rounded fighter.

Pick : Brock Jardine

 

Jon Manley   vs.  Neil Magny

I was wrong two times when I picked Manley to lose on the Ultimate Fighter sooner than he did. He was one of the best grapplers of the season, and really improved his striking. His reach over Magny is pretty significant, so this will give him an even greater advantage in the striking. Magny is a skilled fighter, but Manley has him outclassed.

Pick : Jon Manley

 

Nah-Shon Burrell   vs.  Yuri Villefort

Quick Pick; they both finish fights, but Villefort is a little more well rounded than Burrell. He can win by knockout or submission.

Pick : Yuri Villefort

 

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

MMAFix writers, Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli and Josh Leduc, compete in their ongoing battle of UFC predictions. The dissension dates back to UFC on FX 6, and it’s been a tight race, especially seeing the two usually disagree on only a couple fights per event. Now sixty five fight in the competition, Ryan leads by one, correctly predicting forty fights and Josh with thirty nine.

Fight Freek breaks down the two fights on the card that they disagree on, and why they differ in opinion. This will give Josh an opportunity to pull ahead in the competition, if both fights go his way.

 

James Te Huna  vs.  Ryan Jimmo

 

Josh’s Toughts : Te Huna’s cardio is in question, so he’s going to win, it has to be in the first round. Jimmo is a skilled striker, and as he showed Anthony Perosh, he has the ability to knockout his opponents early. If he ever feels threatened by the power of Te Huna, his wrestling is good enough to take the fight down and wear out his opponent.

Pick : Ryan Jimmo

 

Ryan’s Thoughts : Jimmo may have knocked out Anthony Perosh in seven seconds, but Perosh in amateur on the feet at best. Te Huna will have the advantage in power, and his cardio got him through three fast paced rounds in his last fight, so the cardio stab goes out the window here. Jimmo will have to put Te Huna on his back and holds him there all three rounds, and I don’t see that happening. Te Huna knows the takedown could quite possibly come and he’ll be ready to counter with jaw breaking uppercuts.

Pick : James Te Huna

 

 
Jimi Manuwa  vs.  Cyrille Diabate

 
Josh’s Thoughts : Diabate is an excellent Muay Thai striker, and beaten the likes of Rick Roufus and Michael Bisping in kickboxing matches. Since working with Team Quest, Diabate has improved on his grappling, and won his most recent fight by rear naked choke. Between his technical striking, reach advantage, and improved ground game; the snake should have what it takes to win a decision if not finish his opponent.

Pick : Cyrille Diabate

 
Ryan’s Thoughts : Training with Team Quest or not, Diabate’s ground game is far from deadly. Even with his technical striking skills, he’s easily bullied and rarely utilizes his reach advantage. Manuwa has serious knockout power, and all but one of his fights have ended in such fashion. If Anthony Perosh, Tom DeBlass, and Chad Griggs have been able to get on the inside of his reach, so there’s no doubt that the physically strong and aggressive Manuwa can do the same, and land the finishing shots it will take to put Diabate’s lights out.

Pick : Jimi Manuwa

 
Here’s some quick thoughts on the rest of the bouts. It’s unfortunate that we don’t disagree on more fights, making this dissension a little more interesting. If it doesn’t end up being a tie, one of us is going to eat crow.

 

Ulysses Gomez  vs.  Phil Harris

Gomez can only win if he finds the submission. With Harris’ wrestling and knockout power, it’s more likely Gomez gets caught like he did against John Moraga. Harris by knockout.

 
Vaughan Lee  vs.  Motonobu Tezuka

Tezuka is strictly a ground fighter, and his conditioning is in question. Lee has underated submission skills and has much more proficient striking than Tezuka. Lee by knockout.

 
Tom Watson vs.  Stanislav Nedkov

Watson was taken down by Brad Tavares, so Nedkov should have no issues doing the same. After all, he beat Thiago Silva for two rounds before the professional failed urine sample was able to submit Nedkov. Nedkov by decision.

 
Josh Grispi  vs.  Andy Ogle

Ogle can go all three rounds strong, and Grispi has maybe one round to submit him. Sorry, but it’s more likely that Grispi crumbles under the aggression of Ogle rather than securing a submission in under five minutes. Ogle by decision.

 

Paul Sass  vs.  Danny Castillo

Castillo will take Sass down, but it’ll backfire as Sass locks up another triangle/armbar. Sass by submission.

 
Terry Etim  vs.  Renee Forte

Etim has better striking, a significant reach advantage, and one heck of a guillotine. Forte isn’t ready for this level of competition, and he’ll realize that real quick. Etim by knockout.

 

Che Mills  vs.  Matthew Riddle

Riddle has no chance in a striking match with Mills, and he won’t be strong enough to get Mills down. Mills by knockout.

 
Gunnar Nelson  vs.  Jorge Santiago

Everything Santiago does well, Nelson does it better. Striking, wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu; Nelson has every advantage. Nelson by knockout.

 
Cub Swanson  vs.  Dustin Poirier

Swanson’s better on the feet, Poirier’s better on the ground, but the talent gap is bigger on the feet. Between how much damage Poirier takes in his fights, and how much power Swanson has, Swanson emerges victorious. Swanson by knockout.

 
Renan Barao  vs.  Michael McDonald

McDonald has a puncher’s chance, but Barao is too technical. He’ll keep McDonald on the outside with his kicks and win a decision, but an early submission wouldn’t be surprising. Barao by decision.

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek

 

 

Renan Barao will defend his interim belt against Michael McDonald to determine who will be facing Dominick Cruz to unify the Bantamweight title. When the two fighters square off, blah blah blah if you don’t already know this, why are you reading? Enough with the pre fight banter, let’s get down to the nity grity and get to the predictions.

 
Phil Harris   vs.  Ulysses Gomez

Gomez was far from impressive in his fight with John Moraga. His striking was mediocre at best, and he was unable to implement his Jiu-Jitsu game. Harris is difficult to take down, and even while in the guard of a proficient Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, he is difficult to submit. Harris has heavy hands, which are more deadly over an opponent who lacks skills in the stand up. Gomez will try will all his might to get the fight to the canvas, but Harris will overpower him with his striking and finish him in the first round.

Pick : Phil Harris

 
Vaughan Lee   vs.  Motonobu Tezuka

Lee is still one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He has proficient Jiu-Jitsu skills, even off his back, and he possesses crisp striking. Tezuka on the other hand, has very little striking and focuses solely on the ground game. He will shoot in for a leg and endlessly try to get his opponent down, seeing he doesn’t stand a chance on the feet. Tezuka has finished fights by submission, but most of his recent fights have gone to a decision. He gassed out rather quickly in his last fight against Alex Caceres, but the fact that he took the fight on short notice may have been the reason. Lee has the more diverse grappling game, but even if their grappling is dead even, Lee has light Tezuka up with his boxing.

Pick : Vaughan Lee

 
Tom Watson   vs.  Stanislav Nedkov

Watson lost a close split decision to Brad Tavares in his last fight, while Nedkov was submitted by Thiago Silva. My initial edge goes to Nedkov based solely on the fact that Silva is light years ahead of Tavares in skill, and Nedkov won the first two rounds in that fight. If Brad Tavares was able to get Watson down, then Nedkov will be able to do the same for sure. Watson will make it a close fight with his striking, but Nedkov will do enough to win a decision.

Pick : Stanislav Nedkov

 
Andy Ogle   vs.  Josh Grispi

Two years ago, Grispi missed at title shot by the skin of his teeth. Since then he has lost three straight fights, and I fail to see any aggression in him at anymore. Ogle on the other hand, always comes to bring it. His well rounded skills make him comfortable wherever the fight goes, and his cardio is always up to par. Grispi possess proficient Jiu-Jitsu, but Ogle’s wrestling will nullify and submission attempts, and if Grispi tries to stand with Ogle, he will be in a world of trouble. It’s essentially a win-win for Ogle.

Pick : Andy Ogle

 
Paul Sass   vs.  Danny Castillo

Like all of his fights, Castillo will try to take his opponent down, but that will play right into Sass’ game. He came so close to getting the submission in his last fight, but instead, it was Sass who got submitted. Nevertheless, twelve of Sass’ thirteen wins came via submission, and this fight will be a déjà vu of Sass’ fight with Jacob Volkmann.

Pick : Paul Sass

 
Terry Etim   vs.  Renee Forte

Etim hasn’t fought for over a year, but in his last fight with Edson Barboza, he was arguably up two rounds before getting caught with the crazy spinning head kick. I was surprised with the speed, wrestling, and striking of Etim against such a potential prospect. Ultimately, he lost the fight, but I see no reason that he shouldn’t find success against Forte. He’ll be the quicker fighter with far superior striking, especially with the significant reach that he will have in this fight. Even if Forte goes for a leg on a takedown, Etim has been known to counter with the guillotine choke, and often gets the tap.

Pick : Terry Etim

 
Che Mills   vs.  Matthew Riddle

Mills has been susceptible to submissions, but only by those who are well versed in Jiu-Jitsu. In his fight with Rory MacDonald, Mills was landing more punches on the feet, but MacDonald was able to take him down, which lead to the TKO via ground and pound. Riddle will not have the wrestling to take Mills down, or have the striking skills to compete with him on the feet. If a technical striker like Duane Ludwig fell short against Mills, I don’t see how Riddle will stand any chance.

Pick : Che Mills

 
James Te-Huna   vs.  Ryan Jimmo

I’m looking over this fight quite carefully, especially after Jimmo’s seven second knockout of Anthony Perosh. Jimmo is a second degree black belt in Shito-ryu karate, and holds a victory over former world kickboxing champion, Rick Roufus. Several of his victories didn’t come without controversy, as fans and media members commented on how Marvin Eastman and Sokoudjou should’ve gotten the decision over Jimmo. Furthermore, Jimmo credited his victory over Wilson Gouveia to Gouveia‘s lack of conditioning. Te-Huna’s only loss in the UFC came at the hands of Alexander Gustafsson; the current number four light heavyweight in the world. He has devastating power in his hands, especially his uppercuts, which he used to finish three of his opponents. Jimmo’s seven second knockout would have been much more impressive had it been over an opponent who wasn’t such an amateur striker. Going toe to toe with a heavy hitter like Te-Huna is far more difficult than striking with Anthony Perosh, and a full fifteen minutes is more than enough time for Te-Huna to land some of those jaw breaking uppercuts.

Pick : James Te-Huna

 
Gunnar Nelson   vs.  Jorge Santiago

There was a time where Santiago was considered to be among the middleweight elite, but now he trying his luck at welterweight. Assuming the weight cut goes well, he’ll still have proficient Jiu-Jitsu and good striking, but Nelson will have him beat in both categories. Nelson is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt under Renzo Gracie, and has a perfect 10-0 MMA record, with seven wins by first round submission. He competed in the 2009 IBJJF World Jiu-Jitsu Championship and Pan American Championship for Gi, no-Gi, and open weight; winning either the gold or silver medal. As if his ground game wasn’t a threat enough, Nelson is also a black belt in Goju-ryu Karate. Both fighters have wins by knockout as well as submission, but if anyone is getting finished in this fight, it’ll be Santiago.

Pick : Gunnar Nelson

 
Jimi Manuwa   vs.  Cyrille Diabate

Diabate has a nice reach advantage, but he doesn’t always utilize it. Anthony Perosh, Tom DeBlass, and Chad Griggs have all been able to get on the inside of Diabate’s reach, and this fight won’t be any different. Manuwa is 12-0 in his professional MMA career, winning eleven fights by knockout, TKO, or doctor stoppage. Diabate might be the more technical striker, but not by much, and it will be the power and aggression of Manuwa that will win him this fight, bringing him to 13-0.

Pick : Jimi Manuwa

 
Cub Swanson   vs.  Dustin Poirier

For me, this is the hardest fight to pick a winner. Both fighters are top ten in their weight class and fairly well rounded, but the striking and power of Swanson is too much to overlook. Swanson won all three of his fights in 2012 by knockout, beating tough opponents like George Roop, Ross Pearson, and Charles Oliveira. Poirier hasn’t had the best luck while striking with his opponents. Jonathan Brookins isn’t exactly known for his striking, but he caught Poirier with several heavy shots, that would’ve put his lights out if those punches had come from Swanson. Even when Poirier wins, he is tagged with more than just a few strikes, and all Swanson needs is one brief opening to end a fight.

Pick : Cub Swanson

 
Renan Barao   vs.  Michael McDonald

Although his win over Miguel Torres was impressive, McDonald really only has a puncher’s chance in this fight. Barao is a much more technical striker and is proficient at keeping fighters on the outside with his kicks. Anyone who can pick apart Urijah Faber in the manner he did, can at least win a decision over McDonald, if not finish him.

Pick : Renan Barao

 

– Ryan “Fight Freek” Poli

@FightFreek