Aldo Vs. Martinez Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight strikers Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez will collide this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301.

It’s been almost two years since Aldo suffered a competitive defeat to Merab Dvalishvili and opted to walk away from UFC competition. Dedicated fight fans may remember that Aldo should have gotten a title shot against Aljamain Sterling instead of floppy-shouldered T.J. Dillashaw, but instead Aldo walked away in disappointing circumstances.

Perhaps he’d like to leave on a higher note?

As for Martinez, “The Dragon” rides a six-fight win streak into the biggest fight of his career. Aldo may not technically be ranked at the moment, but a victory here would easily be the most notable of Martinez’s career.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Aldo Vs. Martinez Betting Odds

• Jose Aldo victory: +130
• Jose Aldo via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
• Jose Aldo via submission: +2500
• Jose Aldo via decision: +200
• Jonathan Martinez victory: -155
• Jonathan Martinez via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Jonathan Martinez via submission: +1400
• Jonathan Martinez via decision: +140
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Aldo Wins

Aldo is quite simply one of the greatest fighters of all time. The Brazilian legend is a tremendous striker with a deep skill set on the feet, an underrated grappler, and he remains the greatest counter wrestler in MMA history.

This is a great match up for Aldo, who has the tools to take away Martinez’s greatest weapon: his power kicks. Aldo has a long history in Muay Thai, and defense has developed into one of his most primary skills. Notably, Aldo is one of very few MMA fighters genuinely great at checking kicks.

A hard check can easily break a foot. At the very least, it will discourage his opponent from trying again. If Aldo can start to take away his opponent’s kicks via checks, cut kicks, counter punches, trips — all standard weapons in his Muay Thai arsenal — then it’s going to really mess up Martinez’s flow.

If this fight becomes a boxing match, Aldo has a significant edge in fluidity and power.

How Martinez Wins

Martinez has the best left leg in the division … if not the sport. The Southpaw kicks through his opponents, breaking apart their legs and livers alike. He uses his footwork and feints to manage distance really well, and he tends to time hard counters on opponents who really try to press him.

Martinez’s great advantage in this fight is that he’s almost a decade younger and has far fewer miles on him. In general, Martinez operates at a slightly higher volume than Aldo, which is an important factor in a possible kickboxing match likely to go to a decision.

The most notable adjustment Martinez must make here is being sure to set up his kicks. Generally, Martinez times his kicks cleanly by hiding them behind movement and feints. That’s good strategy, but Aldo’s kick defense is simply better than average. To ensure that his left leg is landing and doing damage, Martinez has to establish the threat of his hands and hide those kicks behind his punches.

Generally, if Martinez’s kicks are landing, he’s winning the fight.

Aldo Vs. Martinez Prediction

This card on the whole may leave something to be desired, but this is a great fight.

I am wary of picking a 37-year-old Bantamweight against a genuine ranked contender. Statistically, the odds are not great in that kind of match up. Yet, Aldo was fighting tremendously well when he walked away two years ago. He was absolutely still a Top 5 fighter, doing better than Dvalishvili than almost anyone else (at elevation no less). Last year, he competed three times in boxing, so clearly the Brazilian hasn’t gotten fat in his time away from the cage.

Furthermore, it’s a great style clash for Aldo. A fellow Muay Thai striker? Martinez kicks real hard, but his game isn’t something new to Aldo. He doesn’t hold a significant edge in height, reach or speed. He’s going to fight Aldo on Aldo’s terms, which rarely ends well for anyone.

Prediction: Jose Aldo via decision (+200)

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.