UFC Light Heavyweight Bout: Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa
Odds: ( -500 Gustafsson / +350 Manuwa )
Betting Pick: Gustafsson
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In the main event of UFC Fight Night 38, top-ranked Light Heavyweight contender Alexander Gustafsson will look to rebound from a title bout loss as he squares off with undefeated prospect Jimi Manuwa. Gustafsson gave UFC champion Jon “Bones” Jones everything he could handle in their last fight. Generally, a big contender coming off a tough title loss might get a slightly easier bout, but Gustafsson is getting thrown in with an undefeated fighter who has blazed his way through the division with brutal striking and a vast surplus of punching power. If he wants to stay in position for a title rematch, Gustafsson is going to have to find a way to stay out of trouble on the feet and not leave himself open for any huge power punches.
Jimi Manuwa is one of the Light Heavyweight division’s most exciting prospects. With 14 finishes in 14 professional fights, Manuwa has proven that he is a dangerous fighter who should make any opponent wary. There is no way around the fact, though, that Gustafsson is not so much a step up in competition for Manuwa as he is a giant leap. Gustafsson is more than just one tier above any of the fighters Manuwa has faced, he is in a whole different realm. Still, if Manuwa can avoid being overwhelmed by the moment, his striking prowess and punching power make him a threat to win any fight at any time.
Alexander Gustafsson is clearly a top-tier Light Heavyweight. His mix of size, striking ability, and wrestling make him a formidable foe for any opponent, including UFC champ Jon Jones, who previously looked untouchable. Gustafsson is a bit of an enigma, in that when you look at his style, no one thing really stands out. He’s not a world-class wrestler, nor is he one of the most feared strikers in his division. What he is, like Jon Jones, is the prototype of a new breed of MMA fighter with a mix of striking, grappling, size, and athleticism. I don’t think that there’s anyone in the world Gustafsson should be afraid to stand with, but he does need to be careful against Manuwa. Gustafsson has the far more complete game and much more high-level fight experience, so he just needs to be careful not to hand anything to Manuwa in the striking exchanges.
Ultimately, this seems like a bit of a mismatch. Clearly, Manuwa has promise, but Gustafsson is just too big a step up for him at this point. Manuwa is a striker by trade, but Gustafsson is a skilled striker in his own right, and his length and height make him a difficult style matchup. On top of that, Gustafsson is a better wrestler with a superior clinch game. I just think this is too much too soon for Manuwa. Expect Gustafsson to control the action en route to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision.
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