Almeida Vs. Romanov Betting Odds, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight grapplers Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov will duel this weekend (Sat., June 1, 2024) at UFC 302 inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Almeida started his UFC career off hot, winning six straight bouts to establish himself as a Heavyweight contender. The Brazilian suffered his first Octagon defeat last time out, however, as Curtis Blaydes was able to survive the first round and pull the rug out from underneath Almeida with a sudden series of hammerfists (watch highlights). “Malhadinho” will attempt to rebound opposite a fellow grappler in Romanov, who actually started his UFC career in similar fashion. Five straight wins saw Romanov climb the ladder quickly, but consecutive losses and significant weight gain raised questions about whether the Moldovan wrestler could really cut it at the highest level.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Almeida Vs. Romanov Betting Odds

• Jailton Almeida victory: -290
• Jailton Almeida via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Jailton Almeida via submission: +175
• Jailton Almeida via decision: +375
• Alexander Romanov victory: +205
• Alexander Romanov via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Alexander Romanov via submission: +600
• Alexander Romanov via decision: +650
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Almeida Wins

Almeida is not a complicated tactician, but his strategy has been wildly effective. The muscled Brazilian wastes little time in flashing a high kick or left hook then exploding forward into a double leg takedown. Once on top, his control and guard passing is masterful, and he’ll hunt for submissions from dominant positions like mount.

For all the “boring” complaints, Almeida has finished 19 of his 20 victories — mixed martial arts (MMA) fans are silly!

At some point, Almeida is going to have to add more layers to his kickboxing offense to really set up his grappling, but … this is not that point. I don’t know that Romanov even has the striking advantage here. They’re pretty much pure grapplers, and based on footage and results, Almeida seems like the better one!

Even if he isn’t, his cardio is much better. Almeida can start wrestling from the first bell, and by the second, Romanov will probably fade to the point that he can take over if he hasn’t already.

How Romanov Wins

Romanov was an accomplished freestyle wrestler before moving into MMA. In the cage, he’s known for high-velocity throws and an aggressive top game, which has resulted in 15 finishes out of 17 victories.

The odds are stacked against him, but I do see a single realistic path to victory for Romanov — aside from closing his eyes and swinging for a random KO punch, which could always happen between two big men. The better strategy, however, would be to sprint from the starting gun and initiate the wrestling exchanges himself.

As we just saw in Almeida vs. Blaydes, a Heavyweight being good at offensive wrestling doesn’t mean his defensive wrestling is particularly nuanced. There’s every chance that Almeida’s takedown defense is mediocre, and we’ve just never seen that aspect of his game because nobody has tried. Surprisingly, one of the safest ways to avoid being taken down is to take the other guy down first!

That’s the case here. If “King Kong” shoots early, he might just be able to throw Almeida through the air and gain top position.

Almeida Vs. Romanov Prediction

Heavyweight grappling matches have a reputation for being awful, but this one should create some interesting scrambles.

One of the most difficult situations in MMA is trying to beat someone who’s superior in your own strength. What is a very good kickboxer supposed to do against an elite kickboxer? They can try to wrestle, but nobody likes turning to their backup game plan, and the elite kickboxer is probably used to shucking off takedown attempts from actual wrestlers!

Such is the case here. Almeida is the superior athlete with more dominant wrestling and better jiu-jitsu. Romanov might be able to start fast and catch him off-guard, but Almeida is pretty dang excellent at exploding out of the gate. Plus, even if he is taken down, Almeida showed a good ability to wrestle up into single legs from his back against Derrick Lewis last time out, and it feels unlikely that Romanov can keep up the pace for more than a round.

When he fades, Almeida wraps up a strangle.

Prediction: Almeida via submission (+175)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 302 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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