UFC Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Odds: (-625 Silva / +425 Okami )
Betting Pick: Okami
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In the main event of the evening, long-time top contender Yushin “Thunder” Okami gets his long-awaited shot at Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva. Silva is obviously the most dominant champion in the entire sport, riding a record-breaking string of title defenses, but Okami is the sort of fighter who is stylistically capable of putting him at a disadvantage. If there is a hole in Silva’s game it is his takedown defense, and Okami is more than capable of testing his wrestling and putting him on his back like Chael Sonnen did. Obviously, Silva’s striking is utterly devastating, but the last thing he wants is another fight like the one he had against Chael Sonnen, where he was physically dominated for four and a half rounds.
Yushin Okami has been considered one of the top Middleweight contenders for a few years now, but a variety of issues have kept him from recieving his rightful shot at the title. In his last fight, Okami completely dominated highly-regarded opponent Nate “The Great” Marquardt, proving emphatically that he is ready for a shot at Silva. Okami’s offense is extremely versatile. He is a great wrestler with dominant takedowns and punishing ground and pound, but he also has fairly heavy-handed and technical boxing. Against Silva that is going to be huge, because he has the wrestling to force Silva off his game and enough boxing that he can hold his own, maybe even surprise Silva with some jabs, and do enough standing that he doesn’t have to telegraph his takedowns. Silva has shown time and again that he can be taken down and controlled. What makes Okami such a dangerous opponent for Silva is that he can not only put Silva on his back, he can defend effectively against submissions inside Silva’s guard.
Anderson Silva’s striking would be impossible to overhype. His technique is flawless, he has knockout power with punches, kicks, and knees, and he is unparalleled at controlling opponents in the clinch and destroying them. What makes Silva so dangerous is that he has solid technique and power, but he punctuates his offense with creative strikes that seem to come out of nowhere and are extremely difficult to defend against. On the feet, Silva can be hit, but he will eventually destroy anyone who can’t force a fight to the ground. The only hole in Silva’s game is his takedown defense and escapes on the ground. Any competent wrestler, a billing Okami certainly fits, is not going to have a huge amount of trouble securing takedowns. Off his back, Silva has dangerous submissions, but his ability to fight for position and escape from bottom position is lacking.
Silva is the most dominant Middleweight of all time, but I think Okami is a terrible matchup for him. Chael Sonnen, who Okami trains with, not only planted Silva on his back for the vast majority of the fight and destroyed him with ground and pound, he actually got a lot of fairly hard shots in on the feet by taking the fight to Silva. Okami is more than capable of executing the same game plan, with his stiff jabs and great wrestling. The only real difference is that, unlike Sonnen, Okami has solid submission defense to round out his game. I think this fight has all the makings of an upset, and expect Okami to control the fight with takedowns and ground and pound for the unanimous decision.
Prediction: Yushin “Thunder” Okami via Unanimous Decision.
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