UFC Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum
Odds: ( +230 Nogueira / -300 Werdum )
Betting Pick: Nogueira
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In the main event of the evening, grappling ace Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum will square off against former PRIDE FC champion Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira. The last time these two met, all the way back in 2006, Nogueira did enough to earn a unanimous decision nod. Since then, though, age has begun to catch up with Nogueira while Werdum has significantly improved his striking game, so this should be a much more competitive and hard-fought bout than their PRIDE Final Conflict showdown.
Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum is, without a doubt, one of the Heavyweight division’s most effective and dangerous grapplers. Unlike many Heavyweights, Werdum has submissions from every position and can turn the tide of a fight instantly with his slick grappling transitions. He will always be a grappler first, but over the years he has developed effective, heavy-handed boxing and can hold his own in extended striking exchanges. Against Nogueira, who is stylistically similar and even more experienced, it’s going to come down to which guy can mix the striking and grappling more effectively and who can avoid making a big mistake first.
Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira is, without a doubt, one of the most accomplished Heavyweights in the sport’s young history. Nogueira was the prototype for a Heavyweight submission grappler, and he remains one of the most effective submission artists in the business. In addition, he has supremely effective technical boxing, although he is noticeably short on punching power relative to other Heavyweight strikers. One of Noguiera’s best traits is his iron chin, which is extremely difficult to crack for even the best and most powerful strikers.
These are two experienced Heavyweights with years of top-flight experience who can get the job done both standing and on the ground. In a grappling fight, I think this is something of a stalemate. Werdum clearly has better pure jiu-jitsu, but Nogueira is a match for anyone inside the confines of an MMA fight. In terms of striking, Werdum is definitely the more powerful of the two while Nogueira will enjoy a clear edge in technique. Ultimately, I think Nogueira’s superior technical boxing and accuracy will be the difference-maker here. Their ground games will cancel each other out while Nogueira’s chin will allow him to survive Werdum’s superior punching power. Ultimately, I think Nogueira will consistently beat Werdum to the punch and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Big Nog by Unanimous Decision.
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