RIZIN kingpin Kai Asakura is making history this weekend (Sat., Dec. 7, 2024) at UFC 310 by squaring off in the main event versus Alexandre Pantoja, the UFC Flyweight champion who has already manhandled most of the divisional Top 10.
It’s quite rare for UFC to reward the accomplishments of another organization’s champion with an immediate title shot. Usually, there’s at least one high-profile introduction for the fanbase first. For example, Nick Diaz was a huge star when he joined the UFC roster, but he still had to fight BJ Penn before the Georges St. Pierre grudge match could be arranged. The same methodology applied for Strikeforce Heavyweight kingpin Alistair Overeem debuting opposite Brock Lesnar and WEC champ Anthony Pettis ill-fated first bout versus Clay Guida. Even Jake Shields — in the midst of a truly incredible 14-fight win streak — had to solidify his No. 1 contender spot by taking on Martin Kampmann.
The most recent exception I can bring to mind is Dan Henderson. The all-time great “Hendo” brought two PRIDE titles with him in his return to the UFC (so technically not a debut, but it had been nearly a decade), and he was rewarded with two title shots in two different divisions against fellow PRIDE veterans Quinton Jackson and Anderson Silva.
He lost both fights.
There’s just not much of a precedent in the modern era of another company’s champion entering the Octagon to immediately take the throne. Accomplished athletes like Daniel Cormier and Luke Rockhold eventually captured UFC gold, but they suffered setbacks in the process.
All of this is to say: the odds are stacked against Kai Asakura at UFC 310
There’s more than historical precedent standing opposite the former RIZIN Bantamweight king. First and foremost, it’s a tough style match up for the knockout artist. Just two fights ago, he spent too much time on bottom versus Hiromasa Ougikubo, an excellent fighter but not one as accomplished as Pantoja.
Generally, Asakura relies on the kill shot to catch elite competition, and Pantoja is incredibly durable. Against the best, his style hasn’t proven to be the most consistent. He’s evenly split bouts with the three best Flyweights he’s fought: Ougikubo, Manel Kape, and Kyoji Horiguchi.
Furthermore, Asakura has some serious adjustments to make ahead of his UFC debut. He’s not too big for Flyweight, but he hasn’t fought at 125-pounds since 2017. That’s a factor! He’s also long accustomed to competing in a ring. If Pantoja has any sense, he’s going to be cage wrestling as much as possible, putting the Japanese star in positions where Pantoja has much more live experience.
Finally, one of Asakura’s greatest weapons is stripped from him, as grounded knees are illegal inside the Octagon. Not only is Asakura nasty with grounded knees, but they would be a great counter to a grappling-heavy fighter.
There is some hope. Pantoja is 34 years old and 17 years deep into his professional career. He’s fought a lot of 25-minute wars recently and taken some lumps in the process. He already gets tired in the later rounds. At some point sooner than later, his engine is going to slow further, and that chin is going to crack. Asakura has that expert striker timing that allows for the perfect connections that shut off the lights, so he’s got a better chance than most at becoming the first man to stop Pantoja.
If the Japanese fighter pulls it off, he’ll have achieved a historic upset in more ways than one.